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1gw
"In terms of near-term business progression, the really positive thing for me is the guidance to year-on-year growth in earnings, backing up the idea that coronavirus has just accelerated what was already underway."
The fact is sales slowed significantly in H2 compared to H1. That's not made up, it's in the accounts.
We're in week 3 of the new year, so any forecast is pure speculation and pointless. If they suffered from the recent lockdown, why won't they suffer future lockdowns, especially as the scientists predict the next one could be in end of Summer/Autumn?
As time goes on, other companies have entered the market.
Sales slowed significantly in H2 compared to H1:
************************************************
Comparing H2 with H1.:
fy TU
revenues: £11m (H1 £6.7m)
dj Ebitda: £1.7m (H1 £1.2m)
cash: £1.7m (H1 £1.7m)
https://byotrolplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/2021-04-21-TU-approved-pdf.pdf
H1: https://byotrolplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Trading-Update-13.11.20.pdf
Sales/adj ebitda H2 v H1
Sales: H2 £4.3m (H1 £6.7m)
Adj Ebitda H2 £0.5m (H1 £1.2m)
cash £1.7m (H1 £1.7m)
SNN,
"Double Verify has just gone public. "
DoubleVerify is interesting, given the execs and their years of experience in working within ad tech ecosystem and trmr's model.
The CEO is ex-CEO of Telaria, demerged from Trmr (when it was Taptica) and formed partnership with Rubicon to form Magnite. Telaria demerged from trmr due to 'perceived conflict of interest'
The CMO is ex-COO (Chief Operations Officer) of rthm, now merged with trmr.
Therefore, you would have thought DoubleVerify execs know a lot about how much fraud there is within ad tech ecosystem, how it is conducted and how to detect it.
This is what Dan (ex-COO of rthm) and Doubleverify say about adtech fraud within CTV.
Dan Slivjanovski, ex COO/CMO of rthm talks about fraud and transparency within the ad tech ecosystem...
"Trust in an Ad-Supported Internet is Eroding.
Fake news, digital ad fraud, and data privacy are pressing issues threatening the trust and confidence in an ad-supported internet. "
Fraud Follows the Money
"Third-party verification has successfully reduced desktop digital ad fraud to low single digits.
Now, with mobile apps commanding more than 50% of a consumer's time online, advertiser demand for quality mobile inventory has swelled. In return, we've seen an 800% increase of in-app ad fraud. Expect that in-app ad fraud will continue to accelerate as fraud follows the money. Also, expect emerging premium, high-growth media types such as connected TV (CTV) to draw the attention of fraudsters in line with sharp increases in budget allocation."
http://www.adotas.com/2019/01/2019-ad-predictions-cmo-doubleverify/
and more recently:
Doubleverify have discovered more CTV fraud. This is likely to call for another round of calls for transparency and possible pulling back of CTV spending by advertisers, as it did in 2017.
CTV Fraud Scheme Costs up to $50m
"Discovered by digital media measurement and verification platform DoubleVerify, the scheme named ParrotTerra is estimated to have cost advertisers between USD $30m (£21.7m) and USD $50m (£36.1m) in stolen spend."
The fallout from ParrotTerra will no doubt amplify calls for greater transparency across the CTV supply chain, and more comprehensive solutions for tackling bad actors."
https://www.exchangewire.com/blog/2021/02/10/bloomberg-media-aspires-for-100m-from-consumer-subs-ctv-fraud-scheme-costs-up-to-50m/
Telaria (Magnite) reasons for selling their TremorDSP.. perceived conflict of interest
"Clients were also uneasy with Tremor servicing both the buy- and sell-sides."
"There's always been a little bit of friction because we were selling agencies and advertisers different products while we were representing publishers," Zagorski said. "And the people who plug into that sell-side platform would always be somewhat hesitant to commit to it in a huge way because we had that perceived conflict."
https://adexchanger.com/digital-tv/tremor-video-sells-demand-side-busin
CEO's are paid to be positive. Not many CEO's would do a 'Ratner'!! He was positive a year ago as well.
Being positive is one thing, the results are the judge of how well the company has done and the results show H2 sales slowed significantly compared to H1.
During times of mega demand of any product, other companies see the opportunity and enter the market, which is what seems to have happened here.
That is shown in the results:
H1, Apr-Sept, when everyone was buying anything available, sales were stronger. By H2 other companies had entered the market and sales are significantly lower.
Johnson,
When a company changes their stance, as TW have done then, for me, it raises questions as to why the change. For several months they have been saying they will review the special dividend in 2021, this year. Now they have changed their stance to reviewing it in 2022, next year.
Also in their Nov 2020 TU
"We will review the special dividend in 2021 for payment in 2022."
https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/taylor_wimpey1/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=229&newsid=1426983
I think they changed their stance on the review of the special dividend being this year because of the gov backed schemes ending in Sept. Plus recently there were comments from scientists that there maybe another covid wave later this year.
Johnson,
" there was never any intention of paying a Special dividend in 2021."
It's not the when it will be paid which is the issue - it's been clear that they will intend to pay it next year.
The issue is WHEN it will be REVIEWED. Today's TU differs from their previous statement in Jan.
Your post this morning 7.46 states.
"We will review the special dividend in 2021 for payment in 2022."
which you correctly stated from their Jan TU.
The REVIEW of the special dividend has now been put back a year. That tells me that they are not currently confident of their excess cash, hence why the review has been delayed a year.
Wales waiting list have also increased significantly.
TLY's 'Insourcing Division', THC, provides it's service in all 4 UK Nations and Ireland.
The length of time people are waiting for treatment on the Welsh NHS is growing massively
More than 220,000 people in Wales have now waited more than nine months to be seen by the NHS
"According to the latest figures from the Welsh Government, in January 2021 there were 541,702 people waiting for planned treatment from the NHS - a record high."
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/health/wales-coronavirus-latest-operations-delayed-20402710
TLY's Insourcing Division - THC.
https://www.totallyhealthcarelimited.com/
Johnson36
"Everyone knew there wasn't going to be a Special Dividend this year. It can not be clased as negative News because the market and all its investors knew already."
The special divi is negative news.
In January they said they will REVIEW the special dividend THIS year.
Now they are saying they will REVIEW the special dividend NEXT year, in 2022.
So the REVIEW for the special dividend has been put back a year.
Jan 14th:
"As previously stated, we expect to recommence ordinary dividend payments in 2021, starting with the payment of the 2020 final dividend. We will review the special dividend in 2021 for payment in 2022."
https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/taylor_wimpey1/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=229&newsid=1444360
Today:
"There will be no special dividend in 2021, but the housebuilder said it does intend to return excess capital to shareholders and will review the position with the next final results in March 2022."
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/947333/taylor-wimpey-says-sales-and-prices-rise-in-healthy-housing-market-947333.html
From this morning's TU compared to H1:
Expected TU: £11m (H1 £6.7m)
adj Ebitda: £1.7m (H1 £1.2m)
cash: £1.7m (H1 £1.7m)
https://byotrolplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/2021-04-21-TU-approved-pdf.pdf
H1: https://byotrolplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Trading-Update-13.11.20.pdf
It seems to me that sales slowed significantly in H2:
Sales: H2 £4.3m (H1 £6.7m)
Adj Ebitda H2 £0.5m (H1 £1.2m)
cash £1.7m (H1 £1.7m)
Bru
"Ad tech bubble bursting!"
A New Tech Bubble Is Poised to Pop, Warns Bernstein
https://www.ai-cio.com/news/new-tech-bubble-poised-pop-warns-bernstein/
Netflix shares plunge amid fears coronavirus boom is over
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56826190
US Peers are all currently down.
Magnite down 3%
Pubmatic down 9%
Magnite is now around $35, down around 40% since Feb, when the CEO sold $1.7m shares.
US Ad Tech bubble bursting?
Barclays and Lloyds say they will not provide 95% mortgages for New Builds..
Might explain the sp decline over the last couple of days.
Also H2B is now only for 1st time buyers and there are regional price caps.
"However, some lenders such as Halifax, which is part of Lloyds Banking Group, and Barclays have said that these products will not be available for new-build properties."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56777436
Boots 600ml has been around for months:
With restrictions easing, I would have expected sales to increase.
However,
600ml bottle - sold 5bottles over last 24hrs
50ml bottle - sold 9 bottles over last 24hrs
200ml bottle - sold 11bottles over last 24hrs.
https://www.boots.com/boots-anti-viral-hand-foam-600ml-10287831
They were selling around 100 bottles in 24 hrs during the early months of pandemic, last year. This tells me that others have entered the market.
Boots also introduced 'anti viral bundles' which included the Byotrol based sanitiser but can't see any sales 'over past 24hrs' for them.
https://www.boots.com/boots-face-mask-nemesis-hand-gel--protect-wellness-vitamin-d-bundle-10287125
Tricky,
"When Tremor published their published of 'substantially ahead of expectations' TU it was rubbished by our resident doom-monger."
I referred to the full year results which show:
During the hotly contested US Elections and covid, total net revenue increased by only 12% to $184.3 million (2019: $164.0 million). Only $20m!!
Adj Ebitda up only £100k(2019 $60.4m)
These figures include a full year contribution from Unruly(2019 nil) and rthm(fy2019 8 months)
""The Company traded strongly during 2020 as a whole, achieving a 12% increase in net revenues to 184.3 million (2019: $164.0 million), primarily driven by the performance of our Programmatic activities generating an increase of 30% to $161.6 million (2019: $124.2 million) as a result of our strategic shift to focus on our Programmatic activities as a key growth driver""
Check the table in the results - fy2020 inc full year from Unruly & Rthm.
Revenues up ONLY 2%
Net revenues up ONLY 12%
GP up ONLY 10%
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TRMR-Final-Results-100321.pdf
Finncap/Trmr:
rthm(now trmr) and Trmr have published bullish TU at beginning of the year and failed to meet previous Finncap expectations.
Check the expectations v Actuals yourself.
Finncap is free to register.
Trmr operate a full stack. Rthm(now merged with trmr) also operated a full stack.
2019 - inc 8mnths of contribution from rthm, merged in Apr 2019.
2020 - inc full year contribution from Unruly(2019 NIL) and RTHM(2019 8 months)
2019: expections - 2nd Apr:
rev expectation $495m Actual $325.8m ** $170m lower than originally expected.
adj ebitda expect $67.4m Actual $60.4m ** $7m lower than originally expected
2020 expectations - 31 March:
rev expect $424.9m, ACTUAL $404m ** $20m lower than originally expected
adj $75.3m, ACTUAL $60.5m ** $15m Lower than originally expected"
TLY:
****
TLY, as you mention them, again for Full year, they will substantially beat expectations.
"Based on draft unaudited numbers, the Group anticipates reporting EBITDA* for the year ended 31 March 2021 substantially ahead of both management expectations and the historic underlying EBITDA of £4.0 million reported by the Group in the financial year ended 31 March 2020."
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/totally/news/rns/story/xppk83x
So it's not goodbye TLY is it? In fact, it's the start of their significant growth.
Please feel free to counter the company statements on the correct BB and provide links to back up your assertions.
White Paper proposals were expected and TLY business model is well prepared for them.
As expected. ;-)
"Well positioned to deliver growth under changed NHS delivery model – It is anticipated that in the future, traditional tendering for contracts by CCGs will change to one based on a public/private partnership model, in line with the new NHS Integrated Care System framework. We believe that Totally is recognised as being a trusted partner to the NHS (assisted by the fact that the CQC ratings for all its registered services are now rated as Good). Accordingly, we believe Totally is well positioned to be awarded new agreements, an example being the recent announcement that its subsidiary, Vocare, was chosen as a qualified provider to Yorkshire Ambulance Service NHS Trust, the first such agreement to be awarded under the new regime. "
http://www.allenbycapital.com/research/research-TOT.html
Bumble
"the white paper stated 4/5 years so any given contract would need to be renewed several times during that time span anyway."
That's not my understanding. The White Paper proposals were already expected. The changes are to do with Integrated systems, which I think will be rolled out over the next 2-3 yrs.
They already had a new 3 yr contract under the new IUC framework.
"The new framework agreement commences on 1 April 2021 and runs to 31 March 2024."
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/totally/news/rns/story/x2j3zmw
The 6/12 month contract extensions end around summer/autumn this year. I think there maybe further contract extensions, IF covid is not under control. If it is then I think we might see more Integrated contracts.
Last year they were awarding 12 month extensions, due to expire this summer/autumn this year.
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/totally/news/rns/story/w11184w
Recent contract extensions have been for 6 months, so I think to cover the covid pandemic period, ie also due to expire this summer/autumn. TLY did say last year that the NHS are not awarding 'new' contracts due to the pandemic.
Once covid pandemic is over the NHS should resort to 'new' contracts again.
And it would be impossible to award 'new' contracts to providers who are in the middle of contracts(extensions). Therefore, contract extensions expiring summer/autumn this year backs up that they should thinking of resuming the awarding of 'new' contracts from this Autumn.
Therefore, I see short contract extensions as good news.
This would also mean that the new ICS(white paper) awarding of contracts is likely to come in sooner, which will be excellent for TLY, as they were expected.
Increasing number on waiting list for non-emergency operations, postponed over the past year..
According to the link, there are now 4.7m on the waiting list in England alone.
"Speaking on a visit to Dartmouth, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the government would "make sure that we give the NHS all the funding that it needs... to beat the backlog"."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56752599
TLY's Insourcing Division, THC, operates in 230 locations in ALL 4 UK Nations AND Republic of Ireland.
https://www.totallyhealthcarelimited.com/
From Company Broker:
Record EBITDA achieved for 2020/21 - more to come
"That it has managed the significant changes to its delivery
model both efficiently and successfully is a testament to the Board and staff given that
the Group still managed to deliver a significant increase in EBITDA yoy. We have already
seen early indications of how its interaction with the NHS is changing as the NHS moves
away from traditional formal tendering for contracts to a preferred partnership model
and as a valued and proven partner of the NHS we believe Totally is well placed to
achieve continued growth as the NHS moves back to some semblance of normality"
http://www.allenbycapital.com/research/research-TOT.html
My own personal target here is 100p-150p...
I too am expecting 100p-150p. Covid slowed things down a year but the huge increase in postponed operations will lead to significant gains for TLY's Insourcing Division.
The Urgent Care and Planned Care divisions should benefit hugely from the White Paper proposals, for which TLY have already set the foundation.
It's all integrated care which is the future.
Liontrust(4.47%), pre-pandemic, talked about £250m mcap..
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/buy-hold-sell-liontrust-uk-115100081.html
Tricky,
"When Tremor published their news of 'substantially ahead of expectations' TU it was rubbished" "Now he crows about the same being touted for Totally".
Why do have a problem with posters expressing an opinion backed up with evidence and links?
It doesn't bother me that you posting your bear points here. I and others have comprehensively countered them.
TLY are in a very strong position, with significant growth over the past year and ahead, despite Covid.
Quite simply,
If bear points can be countered it makes the bull case stronger.
If bull points can be countered it makes the bear case stronger.
Feel free to counter my points on trmr thread with links to back up your assertion.
Despite hotly contested US Elections, highest ad spend, trmr increased ebitda by only $100k($60.5m, 2019 $60.4m) and revenues by only 2%. That's with a full year contribution from Unruly(2019 NIL) and rthm(2019 8 months).
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TRMR-Final-Results-100321.pdf
I backed my conviction and bought after the White Paper was leaked and will hold.
What's wrong with just taking a position and waiting to see how it plays out? Why try so hard to persuade others into buying off the back of dubious speculation? Is it just so you can get out on an artificial spike and onto the next big thing?