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"During October and November of 2023, the COPL Group had increased its purchase
of injectant to over $500,000 per month (more than double September’s expenditure),
but any corresponding increases in production and revenue were minimal, far below
expectations and accordingly, did not merit continuing because they were outweighed
by increased oilfield costs"
Claiming they did buy all the gas and pump it in.
What do we make of that !!
Yes Harry that is what our CEO is there for.
He was appointed on behalf of the SL. They only want their money back. They don't care about anything else.
Whilst the CAG take about legal action it is all getting done and dusted before our eyes. There will be nothing left to argue about.
"Anavio already had their money back and some.
They don’t care...."
So nothing to stop them resetting the bond price and allowing a substantial placement to kickstart 2500bopd production !
Thanks Sharebel, yes of course I know we are not in administration. Yes I have DONE MY OWN RESEARCH thankyou very much.
I am fully aware of our current circumstance. I just have a less optimistic view on a good outcome than you seem to do.
What do you think the bondholders may do next , if anything ?
Sharebel we are in a severely distressed state. That usually means assets get flogged off at no where near fair value.
We picked up CUDA on the cheap because they were in administration.
Ironic isn't it . Buying CUDA was what sowed the seeds of our destruction. A short term bridging loan needed that was replaced with the first bond deal. The rest is history!
You would think the bondholders would be agreeable to some sort of deal.
They are at serious risk of losing all the bonds. OK, so with their trashing of the SP by converting and forward selling interest payments they may be already in profit.
But regardless they have nothing to lose now and quite bit to gain by resetting the bonds at a much higher price so as to allow new money via a placing to come in.
We can't raise any cash with the sp where it's at and that is mainly down to the bonds.
When todays RNS said "The Company believes there is little prospect for a return to shareholders or bond holders",
maybe that was signalling to bondholders. You're gonna lose out big time unless you come to the table with something positive.
I think it's down to the bondholders now.
I really don' think so.
Our interim CEO is there to ensure the SL get their money back.
The fact that the RNS clearly states that shareholders and bondholders will likely receive nothing suggests that he will happily take a low ball offer to achieve that outcome.
"The Company believes there is little prospect for a return to shareholders or bond holders"
Sure we can sue. That WIL take years to achieve any outcome.
Is it not best for CAG to be engaging in discussion with COPL as to how we can make a rescue package work!
E.g.
An immediate resetting of the bonds price to , say 4p with an agreement that they don't convert for 12months
A shareholder placement at 4p to raise 20-30million
Immediate resumption of enough gas to get production to 2500bopd
Resumption of JV talks with ANY interested parties
SL to agree to 6 months grace period whilst the above happens
Now that Anavio have successfully destroyed the SP and shareholder value, AND because they also now own a big chunk of COPL it seems to me that it is in their interests to reset the bond price to a much high level as part of a restructuring.
The SL finally got fed up with their antics and called in the loan. Administration is not good for Anavio because they risk losing out if a low ball offer comes in that only pays off the SL.
But some kind of restructuring involving a new input of cash to kick start gas injection AND a reset of the bonds price would probably make substantially more money for Anavio than they are owed on the outstanding bonds.
So from Anavios perspective, and of course every other stakeholder much better COPL to thrive from now on.!
BUT of course, come Monday morning we may be BUST !
We could have given half of the entire COPL assets(not just Cole Creek) to the JV for, say, only £40million(Mega bargain)
AND we would be in a much better place than where we find ourselves now.
The management of COPL have made a promising company slide into oblivion. Hold your heads in shame. What a bunch of self serving useless individuals.
Well it wouldn't take much to transform the business.
JV for £40m. Pay off the bonds and start pumping huge amount of gas in the fields.
Develop Cole Creek with the JV.
Start drilling the 2 horizontal wells in the Fed deep.
SL happy and renegotiates the loan.
But then we might be BUST in the morning ! Tragic. The incompetence of COPL management is staggering.
Could go either way really. They won't keep extending by a week indefinitely and will foreclose.
BUT, they must have had some positive feedback from COPL that something might be in the offing to have extended in the first place.
We'll find out soon enough. !
We need a resetting of the bonds price and an injection of around £20-30m to get back on an even keel.
Start injecting the right amount of gas and get production to 2000+bopd
WTI currently at $78 per barrel. That would be around $57m annual revenue.
Then we could think about drilling some new wells.
What ever happened to the two horizontal wells of the Fed deep that would be pumping 2000bopd alone !!
I find it hard to believe we can't find another JV partner to get involved.
If Anavio were to reset the bond price as part of a restructuring/fundraising deal at say 6p the share price would respond and they would make a huge amount of profit given how many shares they now own. (probably a lot more than the bonds are worth !!!)
Hey Lagueule, thanks for your advice but I did sell up very recently. At huge loss, like many.
And moving on is not so easy when you have committed the cardinal sin and become emotionally attached to a share and have been invested for several years, especially given the catastrophic downfall that COPL management has allowed to unfold.
Let's face it. It's curtains in 7 days time. We can file for creditor protection, but eventually we will be bust and shareholders will end up with nothing.
Wonder what Anavio are up to. They stand to lose out as well. The SL will probably get their money back with a sale of assets but will Anavio? I hope not because they caused all this. !