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Due to a pair of very weird uncrossed trades, it looks like we are 0.6% down today when in reality we are close to 6% up.
At close yesterday, there was a UT (uncrossed trade) of 6.24p despite the spread being 5.9p to 6.1p. Today, the spread at close was 6.2p to 6.5p (thanks to the Bid dropping from 6.5 to 6.2 in the last 10 minutes) but there was another UT of 6.2p.
So based on the UTs, which are the official close, we seem to have dropped from 6.24p to 6.2p. In reality, we went up from a 6p mid-price to a 6.35p mid price.
@marineclark
Firstly, read about porphyries (unless you are already familiar) as it is really important to understand the lower grade / huge volume paradigm.
This 30m video from the exploration team in July is right at the start of the second phase of drilling. It explains the original known deposit (71mt), which is looking very small now compared to the ranges being mentioned for Racecourse in recent interviews (500-700mt) and how that compares to the geophysics. A lot of the RNS from that point onward will make more sense with that video as context
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEIwR_0S7SE
This is a really key RNS which turns Bushranger from a single porphyry into a potential district and is probably foundational for the solidity in the share price since then.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/new-porphyry-copper-system-at-bushranger-project-jf37k5mf3lun2f1.html
This video is from less than two months ago and has a similar length and format to the first, but with more up to date information
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJ8b--rhvRI
This RNS is about income from the small Africa assets, which backups Colin's repeated assertion that about no placing required.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/manica-gold-update-ulfuuswenne4ad1.html
Having said that, it is worth going through all the RNS since December 2020 if you want to understand the whole story.
As you already post on SOLG and I assume your name is related to it, why not check out their recent RNS with the MRE grades for Porvenir.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SOLG/porvenir-update-cacharposa-maiden-resource-i6pez85um0xikly.html
BTW, the SOLG MRE is for a deposit halfway up a mountain in the Andes, tens of miles from power, transportation, water, etc. in a South American jurisdiction. We have similar grades on easily accessible land, next to a major highway, close to power and other existing infrastructure and we are in an existing major mining district 150 km from Sydney, Australia.
I assume you will have forgotten all the above in a few days when you come back to post about grades.
For any new investors, porvenireal is a serial de-ramper with multiple accounts who pops on here regularly to complain about grades.
Once we repeat all of the readily-available information about porphyries having lower grade but massive volume, or about extraction cost vs value, jurisdictional advantages, etc., or simply suggest he watches one of the many interviews, he goes away.
He is back a few days later to complain about grades :)
>> based on this hole #19, have you an approximation of the total tonnage of contained copper?
This is a deposit with several kilometres of strike, so you can't determine tonnage from a hole near one end, drilled perpendicular to the strike. #19 is more about better overall definition of the asset.
We can probably conclude that as the grade in that area at that depth is well above economic cut-off, a really large deposit is now slightly larger, but not much more than that.
While the RNS is about assays, I thought this section was interesting:
"We continue to drill from previous pads whilst awaiting permission for new pads which will be situated for optimum test drilling at Ascot and the Southern extension of Racecourse as well as peripheral targets which are of interest. The peripheral targets are being generated by this drilling programme and warrant further investigation once the pads are approved.""
Ultimately, you will sell your house for what someone is prepared to pay for it, not the price you name. Estate agents are there to advise you on a reasonable market value and you can either ignore them or ask for multiple opinions. They want to sell your house, but long-term they want prices to rise because that means more commission for them.
I agree a bidding war would be great for us and that can't happen unless AA decline the independent valuation (which they might do given the lack of synergy with their existing portfolio compared to other potential buyers), but that step in the process really does protect us from the far less attractive prospect of an early buyout from a smart company who is ahead of the market.
>> I know Steve but the agreement is negative to us.
Its the opposite. The agreement with AA prevents any other major trying to buy the company cheaply, which gives Colin chance to prove up the resource and trigger the buyback at a time of his choosing, rather than anyone else's.
I know he says "we have a buyer" but I think he means "we have a buy-back agreement that we are going to trigger". Otherwise, he would have to state the above in an RNS as it is definitely price-sensitive information.
Next time we have a de-ramper on the forum:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1xAUfdK9FE
Each drop has been less though. After the last four spikes to the 6p area the lows were 4.55p, 4.7p, 5.05p and 5.2p respectively. I'm not a fan of charts for exploration stocks, but there is an obvious pattern and news is building.
I've been reading up a little on Porvenir. It is mainly an 'indicated' resource (400mt) of 0.35% copper and 0.14 g/t gold with about 100mt 'inferred' at 0.29% copper and 0.12 g/t. That is based on 18,636m of drilling, which is less than for Bushranger, so we may be pessimistic assuming our MRE will only be inferred.
The cut-off grade is 0.16%. When you consider that this is in a mountainous region of southern Ecuador that will need power, water, transport links, workers accommodations, etc., then either SOLG are very optimistic on infrastructure costs or a 0.15% cut-off for Bushranger is looking very conservative.
Holes 37 and 38 are shown on the drill plan from the last RNS.
https://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/9971Y_1-2022-1-19.pdf
According to the link below, Alex Terry and Barclays Wealth are listed separately, so looks like they are held in his own name.
https://xtractresources.com/shareholders/
>> What was I wrong about exactly?
Maybe just refer to the answers given on the last few occasions you said exactly the same thing. If they didn't convince you then, I doubt repeating it will help.
Just sit on the sidelines and pop in occasionally with your 'poor grades' comments. If it turns out you are right and we are all wrong, you can gloat when the sale doesn't happen. Otherwise, you can slink quietly away, as I doubt you will be visiting to compliment everyone on their foresight.
>> What motivates me to post? Doesn't everyone enjoy the idea of being proven right?
Probably you should just post on every forum and say its a terrible stock and the price will go down. That way you maximize your chance of being 'right' and you can enjoy it even more.
The issue for CB (I think) is the Anglo agreement. XTR can only produce an updated JORC when they want to trigger the buy-out option, which happens very fast once triggered. As they are still defining Ascot and that definition should change the final sale price, they can't release an updated model yet.
Maybe they could release one that had contained total ore but not grade.