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I think it says a lot about XTR and the posters on this board that you have spent an afternoon trying to find problems with your investment :)
Personally, the downside risk seems extremely small. I have no doubts we will hit 2mt, especially with Ascot, and based on the recent Josemaria sale in December 2021 (0.3% in the high Andes (4000m) in a seismically active area, seven hours from the nearest habitation, in Argentina), a grade of 0.3% CuEq for BR would be more than enough.
The only real risk I can find (beyond the asteroid impact-type scenarios) is CB's age, as he is approaching 80. However, he seems in very good shape, I am sure there is a succession plan in place and the timeframe is relatively short, so I think that risk is low.
It is difficult to find another stock with so much potential upside combined with so little downside risk.
If you are in any doubt about the 2mt, watch this from about 21:30
https://www.v o x m a r k e t s.co.uk/articles/traders-cafe-with-zak-mir-xtract-resources-webinar-be587a4/
porvenireal is on here every couple of weeks with his 'grade' concerns. We explain the reality. He leaves and then returns two weeks later with the same posts.
In December, the Josemaria mine was sold for $485m. Its located in the 'High Andes' in the not-ideal jurisdiction of Argentina, so it has far highest capex and risk than Bushranger. The JORC for Jose Maria sale is based on Copper at 0.29% for Measured and Indicated and 0.19% for Inferred with a 0.1% cut-off. Gold is 0.2 g.t for M&I and 0.1 g.t for inferred.
porvenireal is plainly invested in SOLG based on his posts and is probably unhappy at its performance compared to XTR. I wonder if that could performance could be due to the various factors he seems to regard as unimportant compared to grade.
>> Please can somebody advise whether today's dip has been on low volume? Cannot understand why the price has dropped
Similar volume to last week or so. Based on L2 though there was a lot of buying as well, so drop seems overdone. A lot of stocks down though on the Russia - Ukraine situation so might be MMs being conservative. Value in ground hasn't changed though so its really just short-term volatility.
@stevemocal
I've posting on telegram on very similar lines. The recent comms is so bad it seems deliberately bad. As you say, we have a lot of new investors, many of which will be following chartists on Twitter. They won't understand the complex story and certainly won't understand the context of something like hole 20, so they just think '0.3% is a low grade'.
Other companies batch their assays so I don't see why XTR can't do it. In fact, they have done it in the past. They have released two assays that are average-to-decent for a researched investor but are obviously going to be viewed badly by the uninformed, without any serious attempt to explain context. Either the person in charge of comms should be replaced, or it was released in full knowledge of the likely consequences. There aren't really any other options.
>> Thanks for the diagram @andmillsy, not seen before…wow it is a biggy.
In case people weren't aware, a version of that diagram is on every RNS related to drilling or assays. Its further down the RNS as a link.
>> Grades not Exciting
I suggest you go for one of those South America copper deposits halfway up a mountain in the desert, miles from power, transport, water, etc. They seem to have really good grades, but for some reason nobody wants them.
Maybe think slightly beyond grade and consider what companies actually look at is the value of the copper minus the cost to extract it - which is really low for Bushranger. Of course, with 4000+ posts I assume you already know that and are just being disingenuous.
Interesting. This is right in the far North-west of the deposit, which CB has stated before is reaching the limit of the mineralisation. Only average grades but a decent length considering its one end of the deposit.
Although it sounds like they are still going to do some more definition once they have the licence for the new pad locations: "Follow-up drilling in this area of the deposit will focus on targeting the higher-grade 'crown' of the mineralisation at shallower depths, achievable with new drill-pad locations cited further towards the northwest."
Now we need to see what happening in the much more interesting south!
So now 41.5m reasons for Colin to do a good deal for shareholders :)
The options on the link from Andrew expire in Feb 2024 and those on the Ella link have until July 2025. More reasons to get the deal done well ahead of that time.
Just another minor point - you posted the below
"if even 12 pence here was guaranteed, investors and millionaires would be piling in ,to double there money In a month or 2 , all of the dragon's den people wouldn't bother sitting in there chairs listening to inventors wanting there money if they could easily double it here ,"
You also posted:
"only 2 years ago ( Feb 2020 this share price was 0.75p ( 3 quarters of a penny ) And since then it's 10 bagged "
So following your logic, shouldn't all of the "investors, millionaires and dragon's den people" been in XTR before it 10-bagged? They should also have been in GGP and EUA before they more than 10-bagged.
The reality is that 99%+ of potential investors haven't heard of XTR. The vast majority will avoid AIM because it is volatile, because the market caps are too small and because they probably don't want to spend a lot of time researching a horde of small companies. Its also much, much easier to 10-bag with £10k or £100k than it is with £10m.
The small cap market is where the private investor can make life-changing money. You have no chance of that on the FTSE unless you get really lucky, because the amount of research invested by very smart people into billion-cap companies is huge. They have a massive advantage over you. They are also investing very large amounts of money so they need very large companies to do that.
On AIM, you have a real chance to spot the opportunities first, because the big boys simply aren't looking. They would rather the mass of PIs did their research and investing for them, so they can jump on board once it moves into the £100m - £1b market cap range when it fits their risk profiles and will actually make a difference to them.
If you always think everyone is smarter than you and if they don't invest, then you shouldn't either, then you are never going to take the opportunities that life presents.
@boyasaka
You are correct that most PI lose money (although I think it is about 85%, not 97%). Its also true that most small cap mining companies will not succeed long-term.
That is why you need to do your own research and make your own decisions and not listen to anonymous posters on a forum. Generally the people who really understand what they are buying and will update their opinion as new information becomes available, without emotions getting involved, will be the ones in the 15%.
I've lost money on some shares - in fact I have lost on more shares then I am up on - but I'm positive overall because the wins are larger than the losses. Possibly because I sell when things start to go off the rails, rather than many PIs who seem to have an emotional attachment to their buy price and (amateur psychology here) don't want to admit a mistake, so they ride the stock down in flames. Making money on the market isn't just about big wins, its about limiting losses.
With this stock, all I have done is buy more shares as more information became available. While there is debate about the upside, there is pretty much no concern about the downside, which is very rare. This is a multi-bag opportunity with only a tiny chance of significant loss. However, If you've done your research and believe everyone is over-optimistic in that regard, then I recommend that you sell and leave us to our delusions :)
>> Steve, I guess a 50 50 split in terms of dividends and shares is the fairest option for tax liabilities
Fortunately I live in a jurisdiction with no capital gains or inheritance tax and a 20% top rate of income tax, so I am happy either way :)
Capital gains tax has always struck me as an odd tax anyway. Why penalise people trying to invest? Its probably better to encourage investment and increase the tax base by growing the overall economy.
When Colin sold Kiwara to First Quantum, the shareholders received half the value as a special dividend and the other half as shares in First Quantum.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-kiwara-first-quantum-idUKTRE5AM3Y220091123
"Under the deal, Kiwara shareholders will receive 0.0085 First Quantum shares and 37.5 pence for every Kiwara share held. First Quantum will issue about 1.9 million shares, which will dilute its shares by about 2.4 percent, according to Reuters data. The implied value per Kiwara share is 75 pence, a 41.5 percent premium to the closing price of Kiwara on Friday."
Here is the London stock exchange price for XTR. I don't why your trading account would show something else.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/XTR/xtract-resources-plc/company-page