Andrada Mining acquisition elevates the miner to emerging mid-tier status. Watch the video here.
Level 2 looking a bit different than before the RNS. Interesting! Let’s see..
Mid august is before the update from Primark and people are now starting to see the consumer more resilient and the shares as undervalued. If it were not for the short interest it would be way higher on what we know, they add a little caution to those that see things very different, IT DOESNT make them right, it is just a trade!!
Blimey, chill out. Have you got some sort of stats on the stuff that is written off? Overall, with blip 18 months ago causing some stock issues now and likely caused by worries about supply chain, management are getting better and better what to order. What style, what sizes etc. making medium mean medium across the range to avoid people like me ordering 2 medium T-shirts and one doesn’t fit, this is how the company will become a profit powerhouse and also why also rans will fail.
Each to their own, clothes people, if it doesn’t harm you it shouldn’t bother you.
Shorts vs common sense, Mike Ashley and CEO turnaround plan. I’m buying. Have made more money on shares that attract shorts for wrong reasons than most others. They were right vs £40 per share. At £4 per share with the metrics in front of us, seriously good luck to them!
Anyone that wants to compare THG to ASOS should just do so. Look at the actual numbers, including forward PE, market cap, positive (or not) cash flow expectations, repeat customer volumes, debt levels.
Do all these, and then imho if you own any THG sell them and switch to ASOS. My prediction in 12 months the market cap situation will be reverse with ASOS worth at least 2x THG. Just my view!!
Somebody find another profitable business with the level of free cash flow expectations of ASOS with similar market valuation!!! Always chance to be slightly wrong but not completely and hence the short position will only help the run to £10 as soon as their theories are exposed.
West I believe there will be a quick re rate to £8 to £10 . This will either happen with amazing results now or might need rubber stamp of the good results from Black Friday / Christmas period, particularly in US where all the previous capital spend and the resilient consumer will really help.
I see a share price of approx £15 to £20 closer to value the business with a grown up attitude to profits. The short position makes no sense to me, if ASOS were in any sort of trouble then the whole economy would be also. ASOS is as well run now as any company with a good balance sheet and huge cash flow expectations. Cheap competition will not stop those that want quality spending at ASOS. I love the £10 annual free shipping subscription .it’s like Amazon prime, once paid you are encouraged to use it and the paid returns will stop Wayne and Waynetta buying the bridesmaid dress and returning with the lager stain on it. Looking forward to hear about average soend per customer metrics, margins of course most important now, US figures and return stats ( including cost reduction of with the paying ). Feels like there is little that can be negative given that we know they want cheap customers off the books and happy for them to go to the Chinese while retaining and looking after more image conscious 18-30 who l, like pointed out, don’t often have mortgage and would prefer to look good than drink heavily like we used to.
If retail suffers I thi no ASOS efficiency, automation and AI will cause market share gains. I see Shein and Temu being challenged in the US by the government and that will only help ASOS there.
Good post West. Incidentally in the date move. I’m somewhat of a skeptic about how honest those running companies are generally. Now don’t get me wrong it can be nothing or it could be for a good reason, perhaps the CFO daughter was getting married, perhaps there is an operation for the wife of the CEO. So many possible reasons and as we have said it is not results, just trading statement. They would have known it would knock the price in the short term, and the fact they still did it, strangely now I see as a positive that they would not have done this without knowing those that chose to use it as a reason to short will ultimately suffer for their “sins”.
I can’t believe they will be so far aside from what Primark delivered, and the 4 point turnaround has had well over 3 more months to bare fruit. I will be at the Munich Beer Oktoberfest on day of results so could be a messy day 😁
It was just a comment so don’t read too much into it. I am of the very strong opinion the 4 business priorities they have been working on will all be moving I. The right direction, including the level of cash they expect for 2H. If I’m wrong the share price has fallen as if I’m wrong already so don’t see any more downside and if I’m correct then shorts will have no option but to exit. You can’t have a hugely cash generative business with £2.3b turnover and excellent turnaround strategy for profitable growth valued at these levels. As said before, yes there is competition but you could argue Primark compete with Nike etc, I don’t agree… so thrrr is competition but not of the sort that will stop the company generating billions of revenue in a profitable way going forwards with the investment in people, AI and their supplier and customer network that has taken years to hone.
It is frustrating to wait to 26th and shorts are making some nervous. If you are one of these investors that sees shorts and exits then nothing will stop you fretting, I simply believe they are very wrong here.
The tech, associated warehousing automation, 24 million customers, great brands and partnerships with leading brands and suppliers is all not as easy as people suggest to replicate. In fact I’m clearly understating that statement. Barriers to entry are much higher than you think for volume high quality retail and the years of experience leading to the current 4 step turnaround is going to pay off handsomely for those that understand it.
Interesting post on ADVFN about rumour. Not the usual pump and dump rumour. Just rumour numbers as or better than expected and profitable growth in a steady way the new way forwards. Something about the way it was written suggests to me it has some level of inside knowledge and the fact it is 100% in line with my view and what management have already said. I see a very strong move towards trading statement upwards. I continue to add daily
It’s started!! Volume and movement towards blue. This could really go once the shorters read the Primark more than once there is no other conclusion other than ASOS is going to lose them a lot of money if they stay short. There is simply no logic in it now. Last one out will really upset their risk manager when 26th arrives…
Repeating what I said earlier I believe the shorts will stampede for the door soon
Think worth simplifying what I just said.
Shorts argument. They see less customers in shops, web traffic down and consumers likely to tighten their belts.
Reality by this statement. Less customers, less web traffic ( shorts correct here) but result that is only announced on trading and the one shorts can’t see, smaller number of customers very resilient and spending more per transaction with good growth in sales. Add to this the focus from ASOS on 30% (yes 30%) more profit per order, less returns, less costly returns, generating cash from the previous mistake of too much stock and what do you have coming.
The mother of all short squeezes as the numpties that thought they knew more than Mike Ashley read this Primark report and run for cover 😁😁😁😁
So bad weather, low footfall and lower transactions mmmm
Bigger spend by customers going shopping less (less visits to website and less customers) with more spending on line…
I know another company likely to benefit even more from such stats, also shows why the reduced web traffic means very little indeed (and as pointed out Shein had same). Personally I would read this statement and be very nervous if I was short right now!! Let’s see what “the expert short investors” think 🤔 🤣
You are so right about the high street. I have a well paid job and 2 teenage children. I live near Reading. If I drive to go shopping it’s about £7 petrol, 4 hours parking would be approx £11, will cost me some sort of food, likely a milkshake or donut, let’s call that £20 but higher if near lunchtime. So all in in about £40 done before I go to the sports shop to find a Nike T-shirt. And then it is likely out of the size I want.
So online, click click 2 T-shirts £50 so not far off what I would have spent without the T-shirts and I will add, my kids simply hate shopping, even the girl. But they are both good to go online and send me link to what they want…. Oh and don’t forget we all saved about 2hours plus the actual shopping time.
I don’t think we are unusual at all and as said below, the FT reported on line sales did well during the bad weather. High street is getting worse so this story plays out harder every year and the efficient well partnered (brands etc) stores with great customer service like ASOS WILL be the winners. Mike Ashley knows this!
So I don’t completely disagree moving dates causes some nerves. However I have seen as many times they know this and it helps them grant options at lower prices knowing they will blow away earnings. If there were a problem with earnings I don’t think they would have done this for the reasons you state. I have seen this many times and am confident in what I have read on the statement in May, own readings into retail activity, Mike Ashley activity and just my own understanding of what this company should be worth. By the way, said I wouldn’t post till 26th so small apologies for not sticking to this 🙂
What you say is valid, but the reason this is at this share price (and I believe oversold / shorted). It’s overdone and all this negativity makes this one of those shares that Warren Buffet would tell you to consider as fear is there, fear is too high, it’s a well run, cash generative company that is now being run to make profit not to increase sales for vanity… I will avoid more comments now until 26th when I believe the CEO will deliver a very strong statement.
I tried Wish, Temu and will not use them again. Talk about a company that takes good pictures of poor quality clothing and makes them look good! Yes if you want a cheap T-shirt there is a place for them, but these are the customers ASOS is happy to lose 🙂 (800k customers they lost “to drive up margins” as they are the ones buying and returning, all the admin inbetween for the low margin stuff that Shein and others will sell plenty of. Revenue is for fun, cash and profits are what matters and ASOS has all of its efforts here now “back to basics” as the CEO stated. It works and the shares are undervalued
Let people short it. I am buying anything I can below £6. I re read the May reading statement and I don’t believe this share price at these low levels can continue. Too much cash generation in next 12 months, interest rates have peaked, wages are now above inflation so consumers starting to spend. The weather has been rubbish, that has improved but I believe the seasonal retail spend will be solid and share price will hit £10 around Christmas.
The main thing I like is the acceptance of reduced revenue but higher profit per order (33% higher). Think about it and then decide to buy or sell. £2.2B with low gross margin or £2B with high gross margin and better cash flow, I know what I prefer and hence I am going to have full conviction buying more and more until it hits £10…dyor!