Listen to our latest Investing Matters Podcast episode 'Uncovering opportunities with investment trusts' with The AIC's Richard Stone here.
Sehr gut!
There was a strong finish in the OTC market in the US after London closed. There's been a good start to trading in Australia in the last 15 minutes. So there's every reason to be positive. Quantifying any rise is a dangerous game.
Be Lucky,
SA
BTW, should someone officially sound the "incoming day trader's" klaxon. I don't normally do predictions but I wouldn't be surprised if the board gets a bit manic (and silly) in the next few hours.
GLA
SA
Interesting to note that 88E currently appears on both HL's "Most viewed shares" top ten list (10th) based, I think, on today/last 24 hours data and also on their "Most active shares" top ten list (9th) based, I think, on last week's data. Both are normally a good sign, in my experience.
GLA - looks like it's going to be a very interesting day/week.
SA
An interesting and welcome development IMO. I’m all for a frequent and regular news flow to keep everyone informed, keep the share in focus and help build momentum.
GLA.
SA
Why not, Brom. But be sure to let us know pronto if you find any hydrocarbons whilst cleansing the filters :)
SA
22:08 (&22:02)
Ford707, Aha! A test, no less :)
Seriously, welcome to the club and you seem pretty clued up to the risk vs reward balance here too. There are many level-head posters on the board here and you'll quickly come to realise who they are. Many of them keep their heads down a little when the masses hit the board and the feed is scrolling so fast it's difficult to keep up with the pace anyway. Keep conducting your own research and, if in doubt about the confidence to place in any given poster, checking past posting history is always best practice. If you're new to bulletin boards in general, this can easily be done by clicking on the posters name.
Be lucky,
SA
20:15 (&20:34)
Ford707, level-headed, I'd like to think so. Superstitous too, though, when it comes to answering such a big question. There is a clue in my previous posting, though.
What's your view?
Be lucky,
SA
burnemc, try otcmarkets dot com and search for EEENF. Should do the trick.
Be lucky,
SA
17:32 (&17:28)
Benny,
Expanding on the thought of a broader shareholder base (which I believe is a good thing) I suspect, but can't prove, that the typical LTH who has derisked (or the typical Institutional holders from the recent CR) will have sold a larger tranche of shares than the typical new US OTC shareholder has purchased. Two sweepingly broad statements but it feels the right logic to me. On the flip side, there will be day traders / short term gamblers who have swung into and out of large positions for short term gain. My main point was that the buying/selling activity that ran the price up to 1.77 on Monday will have flushed out those inclined to sell in the, say, 1,5 to 1.75 range. If/when the price gets back into that range, my hypothesis would be that it will meet less resistance (selling) and could rise higher, quicker. Personally, I'd prefer that to be on the basis of positive company news but, I'm not proud, if it comes from yet further US money entering the market (the Biden Bounty) we may well be ideally positioned to benefit.
I have no plans to de-risk further until or unless I see north of 1.75p and/or on positive news from the drill.
From one holder to another - good luck,
SA
Thought I'd update this thread that I started off a few day's ago to capture and summarise the eye-catching increases in volume we've seen here recently (London ticker only):
Date Volume Movement
15/03/2021 1,352,993,807 58.54% - Monday
12/03/2021 897,248,897 64.00% - Friday
10/02/2016 773,925,533 145.62%
16/02/2016 760,911,687 -50.38%
16/03/2021 690,005,531 -11.54% - Yesterday
10/07/2017 570,037,908 -40.00%
12/02/2016 568,767,639 35.76%
15/02/2016 558,713,114 132.14%
21/09/2017 532,047,783 -43.75%
07/04/2016 484,399,253 -30.77%
Turning those volumes into value (based on the relevant day's closing price) gives the following top 10 by value rather than volume:
Date ValVol Movement
15/03/2021 17,588,919 58.54% - Monday
15/02/2016 14,443,293 132.14%
10/03/2016 11,958,576 28.40%
07/04/2016 10,836,496 -30.77%
06/04/2016 10,348,806 -13.91%
16/02/2016 9,759,453 -50.38%
10/07/2017 9,352,042 -40.00%
16/03/2016 8,095,359 -11.51% - Yesterday
16/03/2021 7,935,064 -11.54%
17/03/2016 7,608,490 26.83%
12/03/2021 7,357,441 64.00% - Friday
And finally, the highest volumes 5 day rolling volumes from this analysis:
Date Volume
16/02/2016 3,058,345,396
16/03/2021 3,050,250,010
The nearest period to these (that doesn't lead into or out of these periods) is less than half of these volumes. Incidentally, the Yahoo site has deleted the data for Monday's business which I find curious; I'm glad I captured it at the time.
In summary, I'd say that trading on the OTC market in the US has certainly turbo charged the interest and volumes and therefore broadened the shareholder base massively. On the other side of the coin, a decent (but unknown) number of shares may have been sold (therefore counted) more than once in this analysis. A by-product of the run up to Monday's intra-day peak of 1.77 will have allowed those that wanted/needed to to de-risk by selling; that might just mean that any similar run up towards 1.7 may not find so many sellers and therefore happen very quickly. I live in hope.
Personally, I have de-risked to a modest extent (not quite calling the top) but I'm still here for the oil.
GLA
SA
Extract from this piece:
"The big news in March 2021 was the pudding of the company's Merlin-1 exploration well in the North Slope area of Alaska."
A prize for the most humourous response with a issing letter :)
GLA
SA
Worth adding another remarkable day into the all-time top tens of volume and value, especially as we are now closing in on the all-time record volume on a rolling five day basis:
Date Volume Movement
15/03/2021 1,352,993,807 58.54% (Today)
12/03/2021 897,248,897 64.00% (Friday)
10/02/2016 773,925,533 145.62%
16/02/2016 760,911,687 -50.38%
10/07/2017 570,037,908 -40.00%
12/02/2016 568,767,639 35.76%
15/02/2016 558,713,114 132.14%
21/09/2017 532,047,783 -43.75%
07/04/2016 484,399,253 -30.77%
09/04/2020 482,981,018 -23.08%
And translating volumes into value based on the closing price:
Date ValVol Movement
15/03/2021 17,588,919 58.54% (Today)
15/02/2016 14,443,293 132.14%
10/03/2016 11,958,576 28.40%
07/04/2016 10,836,496 -30.77%
06/04/2016 10,348,806 -13.91%
16/02/2016 9,759,453 -50.38%
10/07/2017 9,352,042 -40.00%
16/03/2016 8,095,359 -11.51%
17/03/2016 7,608,490 26.83%
12/03/2021 7,357,441 64.00% (Friday)
In terms of the greatest volume on a 5 day rolling basis, the highest is just over 3bn for the period ending 16/2/16. The five days ending today are now in fourth place (was seventeenth after Friday) so, as a betting man, I'd say a new record will be set tomorrow.
Quite remarkable. London ticker only.
GLA
SA
I thought I'd do a little digging to get a historical perspective on the volumes behind Friday's SP rise. I've downloaded the SP values and volumes for the past ten years from Yahoo Finance (London ticker only) and sorted by published volume of shares on any given day. Here is the resultant league table for top ten volume days:
Date Volume Movement
12/03/2021 897,248,897 54.7% (Friday)
10/02/2016 773,925,533 108.8%
16/02/2016 760,911,687 -46.3%
10/07/2017 570,037,908 -15.4%
12/02/2016 568,767,639 40.0%
15/02/2016 558,713,114 22.3%
21/09/2017 532,047,783 -20.3%
07/04/2016 484,399,253 -6.3%
09/04/2020 482,981,018 -29.6%
17/02/2016 461,528,029 0.8%
Even when I turned the volume into value (by multiplying by the closing price on the relevant day) I get to:
Date ValVol Movement
15/02/2016 14,443,293 22.3%
10/03/2016 11,958,576 18.3%
07/04/2016 10,836,496 -6.3%
06/04/2016 10,348,806 -19.8%
16/02/2016 9,759,453 -46.3%
10/07/2017 9,352,042 -15.4%
16/03/2016 8,095,359 -6.8%
17/03/2016 7,608,490 0.6%
12/03/2021 7,357,441 54.7% (Friday)
11/03/2016 7,173,111 -7.9%
So, by any standard, Friday was a hugely significant movement when judged by volume alone, especially when the volume materialised in less than half a trading day. I know that Brom records volume for all markets and maybe able to confirm or refute anything here and I'd certainly defer his personally curated dataset than my 30 mins activity here.
Juggling the same data set to look for the highest rolling five day period volumes, last week is already into 17th place over the same ten year period. If we see volume in excess of 2bn between Monday and Thursday, we will set a new high.
Let's hope it's all supportive of a rising SP. Finding oil will help too...
GLA
SA
Looks like a positive start on the market this morning. I noticed late last night that 88E appeared on the Top 10 Shares Viewed list on the HL site (in 10th place). I don't watch that list on a daily basis but, within that limited experience, when a "small" stock appears in the list it is normally a positive sign.
I hope so.
SA
Happy New Year to all LTH from me too. Although I haven’t posted for a while, I still look in fairly frequently so thanks to those who keep a steady stream of updates and insight going.
Here’s to a healthy and hopefully wealthy 2021.
SA
Bridgedogg1, I don't think my analysis changes the net mean to 88e figures (which are shown against each target's name in the first table - e.g. Indigo 112) and I'd recommend everyone sticks to company published data.
My take-aways are, as examples, Charlie and Lima Upper may jointly account for 17.9% of the net mean to 88e figures but rank lower (7%) when I've aplied the factors. Conversely, Upper and Middle Stellar may "only" account for 33.9% of the oil but this increases to 53% in "importance" when the factors are applied.
Interested to hear if you/others have a view on the rationale behind the factors aplied?
GLA
SA
I haven't posted for a while but, as spud approaches, I thought I'd do a few simple calcs to work out the relative importance of each (conventional) target in the upcoming drill. Simply working out the "net to 88e" barrells gives the following picture:
Indigo 112 23.3%
Charlie 63 13.1%
Lima Upper 23 4.8%
Lima Lower 90 18.8%
Upper Stellar 75 15.6%
Middle Stellar 88 18.3%
Lower Stellar 29 6.0%
But I think it's fair to apply a factor to reflect (a) whether a prospect or a discovery (b) whether a primary or secondary target and (c) anything else. Here's what I've come up with:
Prospect = 1 Discovery = 2
Primary target X 2 Secondary target X 1
Lower Stellar minus 1 ("highly likely to be oil bearing" compared with U/M Stellar "confirmed oil")
This gives factors of:
Indigo = 2
Charlie = 1
Lima Upper = 1
Lima Lower = 2
Upper Stellar = 4
Middle Stellar = 4
Lower Stellar = 3
Applying these factors and reworking the percentages, I get to:
Indigo = 18%
Charlie = 5%
Lima Upper = 2%
Lima Lower = 15%
Upper Stellar = 24%
Middle Stellar = 29%
Lower Stellar = 7%
I'd be interested in any views on the method or the results but my purpose is to have some way of putting the success/failure of any of the targets into some kind of overall perspective when results start to come through.
Then of course there's the HRZ insight to factor in separately.
GLA
SA
I can own up to taking around 10% of my holding off the table at 1.45p last week as I thought I'd taken one too many top ups before Christmas and 88E was becoming too dominant in my portfolio. Happy to have the opportunity to buy most of those shares back at 1.22p first thing this morning.
Just counted up my buys and there are 22 of them; just the solitary sale so far (apart from the Bed and ISA) and I envisage I'll sell, when the time(s) come(s) on at least ten occasions. I get the sense from some of the conversations on here that people treat buying and selling as an all in/all out decision (top-up conversations aside). What are others' opinions?
GLA,
SA
Start the countdown to MILOH's next contribution! ;)
SA