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Nick, the new major investor, Avani, is a broker involved in exporting commodities such as coal to many countries. especially India. Just so happens that Bens are selling majority of their metcoal to an Indian customer. Maybe that is why there was no news of a renewed offtake deal with Integrity this year. May as well use our new in-house broker/investor. Now this will be a big win-win for Avani, Ben and us. Avani will no doubt push for maximum production and sales to earn themselves a large brokerage fee while Bens increase revenue and profits, raise the value of the sp and we all get dividends. MBU will also do well out of this as the value of their remaining 95m shares can now rise and they too will reap dividends.
To maximise production requires both the 71 & 81 HWMs to be mining along with the underground CM. If all 3 are mining next week then Bens will be able to fill 7 trains a month and still have enough left over to grow the stockpile or sell to domestic US market.
Only negative at the moment is the market price but as demand in India is increasing for metcoal the market price is starting to slowly climb back up. With both HWMs operating, the fees/T paid to Mega get reduced and the margins get higher with economies of scale.
Today's news of MBU letting go of the controlling reins and handing the whip to Avina is monumental. News of the 2nd HWM increasing BEN's output of HvB coal to reach full production will be a great news byte to mark in the journey book. It shouldn't be long now. Ben was 9.87% up by close today. Don't need to be a city trader to predict what news of full production will do to the sp.
Have a great weekend!
@Nick-Bris, there is still time for you to average down before news of the #81 mining next week. Obviously not telling you to do so, but my nearest and dearest would still be 99p instead of 43p if they hadn't doubled down in last few months.
Whilst the 81 is operational (unlike the 77) Bens are waiting on Mega to pull a crew together for it. The 81 is due to start mining this week. Stay tuned...
The #20 was sold at a profit.
The second HWM was brought in with Mega's royalties reduced on condition that Bens sold the #20 and only contracted Mega axclusively to operate any HWMs onsite at the Creek.
The 77 was brought in but some electrical parts needed replacing after it had been reassembled. It proved quicker to pull the #81 rig from Mark Energy's site in Kentucky that had come to end of pit life than to source replacement parts and test the 77 with them. The #81 arrived onsite last week, was promptly assembled (in time for a quick snap in the parking lot by the Roasters) and is expected to commence mining next week. It is fully operational and will be tracked on to the new bench area with 5 seams of coal waiting to be mined. Listen to Larkin tell you about those seams on today's podcast or check out the video that Phil made last year with the bust #20 in the background as Larkin pointed out those seams in the highwall. It is 'featured' in the unofficial bens creek facebook group.
Bound to be lots of news next week once the dynamic duo get back to England/Egypt, recover from jetlag, edit their videos and selfiesand we all get carried along by the river of dreams (Billy Joel).
News expected this month: TR1 from MBU and their 'international commodities investor'; commencement of mining by the #81HWM300; resources update; quarterly sales update (or maybe even sales since September); any loan/debt repayments; filling another ship bound for India; new CFO?
Only downside-low HvB market price and MBU still currently holding >50%?
Enjoy the long weekend and the sunshine.
Haven't seen you here for a while ART123, you miss the dip? Still time to jump in for a quick flip if that is your thing.
Gave you all the heads up so if you didn't act on it then that is your bad.
-77 +81 Do you understand now?
Mega messed up. They could not source the parts in time to repair the 77 onsite which is a bit bad for a company whom repair these rigs as well as supply them. The 81 rig was mining a site in Kentucky that was running out of pit. The delay on getting it to the Creek was that it was still in use. The rig arrived onsite this week and got assembled in time for the PR guys to arrive onsite, so Mega have reprieved themselves somewhat. Just don't let Kevin press any buttons! Hopefully we get some video of it in action with an ACDC or similar heavy met(co)al soundtrack like we got for the 71. Will no doubt appear on coalminingusa.com website.
Awesome news, much awaited. Should get to double shift production by end of June in time to supply 7 train loads to our new Indian friends at a time when prices are expected to return north.
Celebrate today's news. Much more news due in coming weeks... but from official sources. Once in double shift BEN will be in full production capable of supplying >918Kt washed HvB+ metcoal each year.
GL to all invested, both new and especially LTH.
-77 +81 :)
Any significance of the change of address in today's RNS?
sorry, just realised it is May now, crazy weekend. I don't know how many trains we had in March. AFAIK there were 6 trains in April but 4 came in that last week to take priority loading the ship first, unblended, in the forward hold sections. Not sure why they didn't report the 2 earlier trains (21st April and one a few days earlier) but they would have probably been blended with coal from other mines at port and loaded in to a previous ship. I am not sure if Bens will be trucking any shipments to join CSX trains now that NS are sending more trains each month. Another presumption on my part is that the trucked coal in winter was surface mined pitcoal dug up from the floor during bench preparation but that has been exhausted now that the benches have been cleared for the HWMs.
HH, no trucks in April. 4 trains came at the end of April to fill the ship, but I was also told there were 2 trains earlier in April. I don't know how many trains there were last month, so possibly they were classed at trains booked for March? I dunno. Hopefully Little and Large can get the info we want at the end of the week...
how many tons sold since September;
are BEN making enough profits to pay down loans, debts, acquisitions (rail etc);
are sections of the 2nd HWm onsite for assembly and will it start mining by mid May;
has MBU sold down to <50% TRV and have we a new large investor...2xTR1s;
Resources report;
Renewal permits for underground mining;
what is Adam eating for Sunday lunch :/
Nice try Tonnacombe. Bens bought a load of Cat yellow iron earlier last August from Harman Energy, a pipeline company, at the end of their pipe laying project. Ben's also bought new Komatsu in November. The only Cat gear they sold AFAIK was the big trucks along with the Bacyrus/Tyrex 20SHM.
Back in your box fella.
https://youtu.be/Bptv9aBg0RA
Good Ol' Luther, our man with the ZZ-Top beard, feeling under pressure to show us the 4th train being loaded up.
Bens currently producing some 41.5K+ clean short tons a month. Today's market price is $210/T= $190.5/t
RNS says 44Kt were sold this month but that would have been at 20 day average of around $213/t so just over $9.3m gross revenue.
Once the 2nd HWM is onsite in double production Bens will be doing a further 35KT+ each month. Even at these low prices that equates to near $15m each month gross rev.
Get to summer (we won't be at double production in Spring IMO), inflation may be curbed and government spending worldwide may increase again. Governments need to create employment in construction/military/manufacturing and build more cars, tanks, bridges, homes and anything else that contains steel. That increases demand on metcoal.
Lots of news due in May.
Geez you lot are more impatient than us over on BEN used to be. Muchesu have all the equipment onsite. At least CGO have a Twitter page to keep everyone updated along with site photos. That Wirtigen bit of equipment is exactly the same as the ones you pass on road repairs around the UK. Only difference is that instead of driving along ripping up tarmac chippings it is ripping up black nuggets of coal from the pit floor. It can pull out up to 500t/hr! The washplant is a heck of a lot smaller than the one at Bens Creek but will be capable of producing 20KT washed coal a month. Geez, that is like 2 train loads for BEN and that is all BEN were selling last year. Muchesu relocated the locals into some nice new homes and that only just completed last month which held up mining as it couldn't start until the locals had a roof over their head.
Power went on at the start of the month to the lab and washplant. Just need the crusher & screener to be up n running and producing that lekker clean coal for the South Africans and any other offtakers who want the other half of the washplant output. You get used to delays in new mine companies and considering this one has been built from scratch they doing well. Everything seems shap shap.
I only got a small toe dipped in the water here at 6.4p from last year, although I sold at 8p before coming back in at that price so kind of a free ride. If it wasn't for the location I'd have been more invested, but next month should see first trucks loading up and generating first revenue surely? If not, what is the hold up? 5p seems like a gift horse.
I haven't paid much attention tbh, has anyone come forward to do a literal contango deal yet? Giving CGO the funds to build coke ovens in return for a hedged amount of coke (coal)? Still seems pretty clear the local Chinese are doing their own circular economy of mining and steel production so maybe find another offtake partner/broker in SA or Mozambique? Is Richards Bay open for exports?
GL, next month should be great for both BEN & CGO once the TR1s are out.
Mohammed Iqbal had his planning permission passed on the student flats in Euston. Well Done Mo! That will be worth a few quid!
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/mohammed-iqbal-6b542a1a_activity-7056966957291425792-QqVy?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios
Thanks Robbieh. The good news not mentioned in the RNS is that whilst they had 4 trains this week to fill that ship, they also had one on the 21st April and one the week before that. I assume those first 2 went to port and were blended with coal from other mines, whereas the 4 trains sent this week were stevedored without blending. Maybe those earlier trains were just topping up an earlier ship. Bens coal is now taking the lead to fill the majority hold spaces of a collier for this Indian buyer. If he/she likes Ben's coal so much then he/she should probably do like Victor Kiam....
Ezza, if you use that spreadsheet I posted a few days ago you will see that I based it on 4 train loads in April and 4 in May and 7 from June. That is inline with what the RNS has said today. Even if the year average price was just $220/T like it is today, it would give a $52.5m EBITDA if my costings are correct. The spreadsheet is not read-only, so feel free to chuck in your own assumptions on costs/production/prices in the cells to decided if the sp reflects where we are at now. I'll be picking up another token 81 shares when the second HWM, a big yellow HWM300 similar to the 77 but working, starts mining in May and doubles production in June. Those dividends certainly seem likely now and that 'international commodity investor' is probably waiting for the ink to dry. Wonder if they had to translate the TR1 paperwork into Hindi...
http://crews-inn.co.uk/ben/benspreadsheet.xlsx
ART123 it was February that they only trucked out coal. They had trains last month and this month. The 77 was taken away by Mega for repairs and they are sending a replacement.
-77 +81
sorry, before I get accused of ramping, 7 trains = 77K short tons = 70 metric Tons, so gross revenue at just $215 average would be $15m not $16.5m although the $4.9m margin was correct according to my spreadsheet.
All news seems to be held back until the Roast PR get there...just in time for them to see a big yellow HWM300 rig mining sending ROM to the washplant that spits out to a growing black heap of washed coal.
You've waited 2 months for dividends, most of us have waited 12 and probably will wait a few more ;) Please always DYOR and don't rely on my figures. I was calling £1.50 + 10p dividends last year based on the PR which was plentiful at the time. Hence why I do my own digging and research now although I do share it all, good or bad. Truth is we can't predict what the sp will be. We can try to value the business on fundamentals but not sentiment. It will certainly help having MBU reduce their stake below 50% and having a new investor onboard holding 29.9% at 2p above today's price.
As it stands, Bens have a large growing stockpile from just 1xHWM (the red 71) and the underground CM. The 77 needed repairs done by Mega. An operational yellow HWM300 unit is not due to be operational onsite until May and all being well double shift/full production by mid summer. 7 trains a month in July seems like ages away but it is only 3 months. 4 trains a month in April = 44Kt or 40KT @ 20 day average of around $245/T = close on $10m gross rev and (pure speculation about margins until we see financials) around $3.8m monthly gross profits?
7 trains = 77KT and if we say the average market price is just a paltry/pessimistic $215/T over summer, then that = $16.5m gross revenue and around $4.9m/month EBITDA (again this is only my take on margins, could be lower, could be higher) as upscaling amounts decreases per ton costs.
Just need those international steel plants to demand more US metcoal and push prices back up.
-77+81
Ralladw I will be happy with 3x bag by middle of summer. Won't need the heating on then either ;)