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Right, from now on, we're in clear air with the market. I think. The FTSE has broken back into the trend at time of writing and more importantly, has actually exceeded the downtrend since Nov 2007. That may be regarded as a good thing from a stocks perspective. Sorry to shock anyone by posting at this time of day!
A wee caveat to the foregoing. I've spent rather a lot of time drawing lines on charts this evening as today confounded me. Now, I am unconfounded. Lloyds is not the only stock sitting in a perfect 'short me' position. Even the FTSE is in that zone. The market overall broke its uptrend from Sep 1st on Oct 1st. It has dipped a bit and today surged up to test the trend line. The important facet is that it tested it and bounced off in the last hour of trade today. Tomorrow may be quite interesting but I'm not going to be rushing into any shares until I'm convinced the FTSE is indeed returning to its uptrend. The reason for all the work.is that I hate illogical movements on the market and whilst today did not seem logical, it now makes a degree of sense as the rules were followed.
No idea if this is a safe punt but software flagged it up. Essentially, any trades over 36p and it's going to spike. If that spike exceeds the 43p region, it will both stick and go higher quite quickly. And the dangerous number is at 30.5p. If any trades breach that, it's going down. Perhaps I should have paid closer attention to my analysis last night. I said - on the market in general - if the FTSE exceeds 5578 in the first hour etc etc. It did and I sodding well fogot that signal was telling me the trend had changed from DOWN to UP. So wasted an entire day waiting for shorting opportunities which got thinner and thinner. Whilst the moves on the FTSE appear to have confounded the downtrend we were in (and surprised the heck out of me), for tomorrow if it drops below 5638 in the first hour, it's going to be a downish day. And if it exceeds 5660 in the first hour, the next stop seems to be around 5730. Lloyds worries me a bit. It is sitting chartwise in the perfect positive for a viable short. It will need to go over 77p tomorrow to make me close my short position on it. I notice Moosh mentioned BXP. It's quite close to a spike trigger, so either needs slow movement to around 44p for it to surge upward or a ruddy great spike. I've noticed quite a few AIMS are reliably breaking their trends since Nov 2007 which I take as a probable sign the market is indeed recovering. BP. is looking better today. Trades above 432 tomorrow and it's going to accelerate. And trades below 430 suggest the opposite though I think the trip would only be to around 426
Nope. I had to go out for a while and decided not to do a panic purchase. I think I shall take some when it does a brief relaxation as this is not the level of spike I was expecting yet.
If any trades go through above 5.95, it's gonna spike. Thanks for this 'un. Not so sure about DRS though.
Not posting any detailed analysis tonight as I had a brilliant day on the market today. Everything behaved in strict accordance with the rubbish I wrote last night - even BP. If anyone suspects I was wrong on LLOY, let's see how this week goes. I've a short running which I intend to ignore until it matches target. But I did buy 888 today in an automatic trade thanks to Barx. For some reason my HBoS account does not fill these orders. Pity JLP didn't get off the ground as I emplaced a buy order at 35.75. It would have been nice if it had been filled. One horrid share I shall comment on is TAN. I suspect it has a 3 pence to rise still as all that is happening is that the gap drop is being logically filled. As for the market in general, 5509 looks like being the bottom on Tuesday and if breached, it could dip to 5460. I am not posting my varied early trading data as it confuses me. But if 5578 is breached in the first hour, most of the above will be wrong and I shall be surprised. Finally, all the numbers are only valid in early trade and sorry SD77 for hijacking you share. I did pick one for detailed analysis, then got bored.
I did a study on this yesterday when I noticed you'd spammed premium. <grinning> From looking at my scrawl, trades below 134 in the few days will suggest the following IS NOT going to happen anytime soon. And trades above 146 will virtually guarantee it's going to 173 fairly rapidly! I'd be inclined to hold steady as the signal I see on the chart is fairly reliable. But if 134 is broken, so are the rules. Obviously, could be utter rot but following your information yesterday, I'd set a buy order on Barx if it moves above 146 in the next few days. Usual caveats apply and thank you for asking.
Software flagged this up of being of interest and I've glanced at its chart. If any trades go through above 1.09 in the next couple of days, I will put money on it spiking. How far, I've no idea but I've noticed that when some of the lowly AIMS are flagged up, some profit can ensue. Of course, there is a however. Whilst AIMS are outwith the FTSE, for some strange reason they are affected by main market movements and the outlook for Friday sucks. (in my opinion but DYOR...<grin>) Today, the FTSE hit the big three year downtrend line and bounced off it with quite decisive force as was shown in the futures and DOW after hours. For me personally, this was my best day this year on the markets due to the predictable volatility parameters I mentioned last night. I think for BRM, the key will come from watching the number of posts in the regular chat area. It is one which is ripe for ramping though I'll admit to having no idea what they actually mine nor where they mine it. I'm going to put it on my potentials screen in ADVFN. As for the market in general, software suggests Friday is going to be an UP day which I really doubt. If the FTSE exceeds 5561 in early trading, it might be right but the movements toward the close and with the DOW later on suggest something quite different which is nice. I can have a lie in tomorrow to see which way the wind is blowing. My susp is that as the FTSE didn't break the 3 year resistance, we'll bounce down a tad prior to the next stab. (treating it like a share) and 5512 looks like being the floor before I launch a long position on the market. As for the sodding lamb, the water leaks from my chimney did something to the wiring in #2 freezer which effectively defrosted an entire lamb. Tonight has been spent cooking lamb for freezing again in the #1 freezer and eating lamb in ridiculous quantity. As we don't live within 2 minutes of a food outlet, we tend to freeze things, often cooking it before freezing. I'm sure there is a health limit for how much lamb can be consumed in an evening - even the dogs look both smug and miserable as they got the salmon and prawns from the freezer. And as for BP... no logical movements ITF so you're on your own!
No idea who they are or what they do. But for some strange reason, recent share price movements indicate something is happening here. From looking at its virtually unfathomable chart, any valid movement in the next week would suggest a move toward the 50p range. The signal my software gave is one that indicates a positive RNS is about to happen. We'll see. As for the market in general, we're all doomed. Except for one quite important detail. A few days ago, the DOW broke through it's downtrend for the last 3 years and has essentially flaffed around since and I've a theory. The FTSE will break through that trendline if it moves above 5667 within the next few days which will allow the entire market to rise as currently, the DOW is tending to trend with the FTSE rather than the other way around. The critical FTSE level of 5522 seems to be acting as quite firm support so a strong day which takes it through the 3 year trendline will give a pretty good indication we're going to experience a strong finish to the year. The down side is my software suggests tomorrow is an up day by more than 1% and last time it said that, the market moved quite firmly in the other direction... Duh. BP is a bit of a concern. Despite a pretty good day today, there remains some concern that it will relax again and that will be shown by any trades below 410 in the next day or so. (That's for "ItsTheFuture" as I know he reads this garbage. <grin>) I noticed someone new posted something about SYNC. I looked at its chart and thought I wish someone who knew what a chart was saying would look at it. I would guess there was a share consolidation a few weeks ago which is skewing things as there is little there I can figure out except that it's going down but might go up... Last night was interesting on my roof as was the open this morning. After emptying two FULL buckets of water which had been placed strategically, I got on the roof in the middle of a rainstorm and carefully fitted a tarpaulin around the chimney area. The rain continued during the day while I watched the market with a dripping noise in the background. I've never closed a trade before, just to justify getting a man in, but we'd 100,000 CNR shares in play and I decided to bin them though the trend said hold. It meant I could argue the case to my wife with a decent profit. Of course, she had the satisfaction of complaining I'd sold them to early as if I'd held, there was another 0.2p to be had....
That was great fun. Bailed CNR a few minutes ago at 1.51 which may prove to be too early but the profit was good.
Closed it at 398 for just four points. It wasn't behaving right and I got nervous. Thanks for the heads up. As you'll guess, I tend not to pay too much attention to the news on FTSE's, just the feel of the intraday movements.
20.6 seems to be the magic number to my eye.
One of the nice things about the end of day scan is occasionally it throws up stocks I've never heard of. This is one of them. No idea what's been going on with it but it has apparently broken its downtrend. Best guess is a slow climb to a target of around 120. Really boring chart though. As for the market in general, today was brilliant for me. I went short when the lower parameter from last night was breached in early trading and for a change, it paid off. Of course, I bailed at the bad number 5522 as I didn't expect any breach to be substantial - essentially, it wasn't. When the market settled into a tight trading range I returned from my walk to see the range being broken and voila. BP was a bit of a dissapointment. It finally broke below its uptrend but not by any substantial amount, so I guess there is some confidence holding it up which is good. And tonight, the DOW was finally superb as it played by the rules quite concisely. As for the rain... at the weekend I fitted a new chimney for my wood burning stove, routing the twin wall flue through a particular part of the roof and emplacing a special silicon sleeve through the tiles. It rained tonight and wow, did it leak. I was on the roof at 6:30pm frantically coating everything with emergency sealant. Some days you're the statue, others the pidgeon.
Just reviewed our history on JLP. We've both plundered this a few times. Be interesting finding out what this movement is going to do.
If trades exceed 36.13 tomorrow, it might be a viable move... But anything below 31.16 would suggest otherwise. All kidding aside, jellybean is looking like it may be on the verge of getting interesting. It did break it's 6 month downtrend last week, settled back and bounced up again, so I'd be inclined to watch it carefully now. I'm tending to track 6 month to 2 year trendbreakers as they tend to have the more interesting movements. If jelly manages the 10% movement, I'd be convinced.
There's a new poster in regular with the moniker "Lingeringat3p" who's been running amok this evening, either ramping or deramping stocks. What's unusual about this one is both the range of stocks he's targeted thus far and the fact some valid research is behind the postings. (New member and 41 posts in one day... hope he's not on minimum wage for this job <grin>) Might be worth keeping an eye on what this person is going to settle on to ramp as I think I recognise the tone of the posts.
That was unusual for me to actually pick one which did what it was supposed to!
Something seems to be potentially brewing here according to software. I was the only stock on the market rated as 'valid' in my end of day run and from glancing at the longer term chart, if any trades exceed 41.8, it's going to move a bit faster with an initial target of 47p. Maybe worth keeping a weather eye on it. On the market in general, long term resistance on the FTSE is around 5621 presently so if that's broken, we're in a new up trend. However, long term support is currently at 5508 so it's entirely feasable one or the other will be tested tomorrow. Early indicators which would give comfort intraday are 5528 which if breached will suggest a coming drop and 5573 which, if breached, will suggest an up day. Those two numbers are only valid for the first hour or so. I was alarmed (and relieved) at the market moves in the last hour today. I had a short running which did better than expected and the alarm came from the intraday support line being breached. Software suggests market is Flat to Low tomorrow with the major miners losing steam. And there was not a single spider seen in the house today. Conkers conquer them. (Spent all day wanting to write that sentence)
We weren't too bothered about the spiders until my wife woke up with one walking acriss her face - it was a monster. This brought on a phobia which has led to many sleepless nights for her. I think she's considered sleeping in a standing position or wearing a crash helmet to bed. No idea if the conkers actually work but for the first time in weeks, my wife slept soundly last night... As for the mice problem, I've won that battle for now. Notice AXS haven't done a thing thus far.
Didn't realise I'd commented on this lot previously. I (frantically checked) noticed that it did not meet any of the criteria for a spike upward previously and to be fair, unless the SP exceeds 0.39 tomorrow, it's not going to do anything realistic. The however is that any trades in the morning above 0.273 will suggest it is indeed recovering from a 2nd bottom move and any trades below 0.266 will suggest the cat has bounced. An interesting one to follow perhaps as the movements are occuring without the benefit of a ramping team such as is currently happening in PYC. On the market in general, I haven't a clue. Software says Wed is Very Strong Up which might be possible as the crucial 5629 was breached. However, whilst I've moderated the parameters, a Strong message can simply indicate volatility in any direction. In early trading, any moves above 5594 will suggest software is right. And 5567 is the really bad number. BP was brilliant today. Bad number in early trades is 409.58 and the good number is 416.2. I got in this morning just after the open and bailed at 418 then bought back in later and bailed again at 417 as I don't fancy it as an overnight hold. RBS is on the verge of getting all warm and cuddly. Any trades above 50.7 tomorrow will give a strong hint of an imminent spike - a sort of Barclays day on steroids. Bad number in early trading is 48.62 though. Lloyds I've got a sell order at 80.3 and if LGEN drops below 100.3 in early trading, it's heading for around 95p As for the spiders, I think I've mentioned the forest behind our new house. Tonight, my wife txt messaged me to complain she'd just done an emergency stop as a tyranasaurus spider was trying to adjust her interior mirror. We do have some rather big brutes wandering around. So, a quick Google and two things happen. I order a 'clear your house' spider ultrasonic, electromagnetic, plug in thing for £23 . And find a posting on Yahoo Answers which suggests sticking a conker (horse chessnut) in the corner of each room will evacuate any spiders. So I blunder into the forest with a torch, return with 35 conker shells and place the contents all over the house, even tossing some up into the attic where the coffin was. Ten minutes ago, the biggest spider I've ever seen came down from the chimney, took a quick look around, then vanished back up the chimney.