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the current level for Brent is healthy and I would rather is stabilised here . Gives less of a narrative to the brainwashed who will pounce on claiming 130 is profiteering yet say nothing about nearly all products in the supermarkets ! I mean even wter bottles at Tesco , Sainsbury etc have outperformed Enquest ! Crazy
Demand is there hence the big product draws in Distillates and Gasoline. they were huge
The lower prices where an issue of physical vs paper oil , there was an imbalance as many observers knew . OPEC just took that paper trade out now. Futures manipulate commodity prices for a while but don't represent demand and supply the whole time.
Saudi cuts 500k Russia (500,000), Iraq (211,000), UAE (144,000), Kuwait (128,000), Kazakhstan (78,000), Algeria (48,000) and Oman (40,000) for a joint total production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day until the end of 2023.
That is the detail I have found .
Noticing a lot of soon to come 5/20 moving average crosses. Should imply that momentum is coming back to small cap oillies . Seeing it across the pond too.
Note how in my previous posts I have mentioned the lows are usually set in March and top trades are low seasonality in March then performing really well in April !
I have this trade on oillies on now . Fingers crossed as statistically there is great outperformance as well as absolute performance .
Stastically March has a very poor seasonal performance , pretty much the lows, whereas April tends to be great .
So beware of the seasonal effect as it remains the best factor when trading . Vs say momentum etc
Me I add at these lows as both oil and Harbour share the seasonal effect . Don't fight the trend I say
Don't forget that April is usually a strong month for Enquest and March one of the worst months, so far this year March has lived up to its seasonality lets hope April has . I dipped in to buy more on this seasonal effect and not sure if already posted but today's US inventory draws on products were huge
Crude +1.1m
Distillates -3.1m
Gasoline and incredible -6.4m
and Cushing -1.0m
Demand for products ( Gasoline and Distillates ) is clearly huge . Price of oil reacting well so far right in time in my view to buy the lows in seasonality and rally into April . Obviously we do have a big FED meeting and decision time which who knows how it will impact risk on assets .
Buy these lows and sell end of April ? Idea for those reading maybe
I hold Enq for disclosure
Could they drop even lower ?
Had a look over the weekend and mortgages are getting much cheaper again and more so I suspect at this rate.
Looks to me that servicing a mortgage won't be as painful as the brief spike we saw late 2022 and all the doom and gloom prophets in the media were as always wrong. Quick as they were to become prophets of doom which is what they are paid to be . Low rates and supply and demand with an ever increasing immigration will mean rents stay up and buying a home a better store of value than in your bank account . Not to mention a stable expense vs the variability of the spikes in rent .
Worth the pain to get on the property ladder .
This week if my calculations are right should see a good draw in the US .
Whilst oil contracts are determined very much by what I feel are derivative manipulation , I feel that the physical market is telling a different story and should soon be reflected in big draws this week and strong pick up in demand .
Lets see .
which is a good indicator for consumer demand . The crude small build is less relevant today
As we are seeing dollar ( well not today ) coming down and rates topping out and falling , I suspect that if we add the inevitable big spike of oil demand from China and India ( who are very well placed now again to take advantage of lower oil ) these current levels will be seen as the buy the dip levels. Today's risk off panic is all to do with Credit Suisse. Not fundamentals of oil which the products draws are showing as very healthy
What an epic own goal by the government with Labour waiting to compound it . You wonder whether this lot is working for or against the country ! To me its blatantly against and with quite some energy too .
What is so exceptional about Brent at this moment I really don't know .
There will be virtually no tax raised at this rate either and rising unemployment . The list of f ups is huge now .
Gosh . I am like 12p under down from average . Never should have let this happen . All because of the EPL
The only thing I can say that is positive is that once rates are cut again commodities will get a boost
The buybacks will be seen of great value if they can buy at these levels ! Wow ! Hard to believe . Not sure they are buying right now though but sure want them to . The divi yield at this rate too is going to be quite good .
I wonder that with interest rates plummeting will the government finally make some sense and cut the EPL which has done nothing but damage to an independent UK based industry ? There is nothing exceptional at the moment with oil prices and gas are indeed the only much higher than average of the two fossil fuels .
Dollar weakness will spur demand in China and India and in general emerging markets. Is this a low to buy ? and average down ?