The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with multi-award-winning fund manager and international bestselling author Lee Freeman-Shor has just been released. Listen here.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/09/13/power-prices-rocket-amid-global-gas-crunch/
151p a therm……..!!
Apologies- those two question marks at the end of my post replaced my smiley face emoji!! A quirk of using an iPad I guess.
IOG: undervalued, underplayed and seemingly unknown to the masses……..just the kind of share I’m interested in ??
Peak- agreed. Very interesting article- it certainly makes for interesting times in the gas sector and hopefully the media will start focusing on ( undervalued )natural fuel investment plays.
I mean, out of all the companies of this scale in the gas sector, IOG must be one of the most undervalued. Backed by a Berkshire Hathaway company, first gas in 3 months and gas riding prices not seen in 16 years.
Market makers…. as you say the price dropped 10% before trading opened the day of the RNS.
Not unusual to see buys outstrip sells yet the share price remains static.
As for LOG, I wouldn’t say desperate to sell but they are certainly not in IOG for the long term. As an administrator, they act in the interests of their clientele to maximise returns from the original loans but not act as an investment broker. I would be surprised if they weren’t keen to cash in with the right offer as part of their exit strategy. It’s either that or wait until the rest of the reserves start delivering. That will take a good couple of years at the least, and be reliant on gas prices, accurate interpretation of gas reserves ( and we know how reliable that’s been over the years!), operational success and no hitches along the way. Also, regardless of how ‘green’ IOG’s operation is, I think gas along with every other fossil fuel will be vilified and given a hard time by the media and the usual brigade- are these risks an administrator would take over the long term? Overall…..a bird in the hand is definitely worth two in the bush from LOG’s perspective.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Cal buys us out before Elgood and Blythe come on line.
The suppression of the share price is a classic symptom prior to take over.
I’ll be disappointed as an offer of between 32- 36p is what would be expected. Whether this happens or not depends on how desperate LOG admin want their cash back.
By the way… read page 15-16 (Economic appraisal for Elgood, Blythe and Vulcan satellites) from 2017…..the NPV at lowest estimates was £97M post tax. Gas prices projecting over double the value this report was based on….hence lowest estimated NPV must be at the very least double indicating a share price of 40p can’t be that far removed?
By the way- Mole, the same report indicates the Blythe well will also be a horizontal drill.
https://www.iog.co.uk/media/1107/blythe-elgood-and-vulcan-satellites-cpr-october-2017.pdf
Indeed- usually a pipeline project such as this is implemented to increase energy security! I see no strategic value in this other than irritate Eastern European allies.
Gas supply squeeze is looking like the perfect storm….. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/07/21/putins-gas-showdown-europe-risks-epic-winter-fuel-crisis/
I know Malcy’s Blog can be a ramp fest at times- but it’s worth noting his report on the IOG RNS and in particular, winter gas prices which are expected to hit 95p a therm ……
I’m not sure the whole blame can be laid at IOG’s door, it was Baker Hughes who conducted the mapping exercise…. https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/106626/independent-oil-gas-aims-to-double-reserves-at-elgood-and-cronx-106626.html
NB- Interesting that the gas flow was considered very good at 40MMcfd at Kew after stimulation, makes the 57MMcfd value we have even more notable.
Paragraph 7 of RNS….however, it’s interesting that it’s based on early interpretations of well data. There appears to be a conflict between what they think they now have, and the unexpected high flow rate of gas ( which bear in mind will be even higher as the flow exceeded the capability of the Hans Deul measuring equipment).
Can anyone else confirm what I am reading out of this situation?
Thanks GG- RNS at least confirms Elgood is viable and the move to Blyth in the next few days to look forward to.
I really want to hear about the offtake agreements though….
‘Sigh’- wrong Blyth! It’s going to the port of Blyth. I think the frustration of waiting for news is getting to me. Apologies.
Tug on route to Blythe, ‘ MTS Indus’ scheduled to arrive at Blythe on the 19th around 1700.
Edda Freya has made a trip from the Blythe Platform and is now at the Hans Deul…probability is high they are getting ready for moving the Hans Deul….this is looking healthy to finally seeing an RNS this week.
30 years from discovering the field to finally develop it…..what’s another week to wait for news!
Blythe looking more active- as you say, VOS Glamour on route to Blythe but also note another supply ship EDDA FREYA is currently at the platform having sailed down from Scotland.
Found a tab ‘nearby vessels’ on marine traffic- false alarm regarding the tugs, they are small rib boats that belong to the ESVAGT Champion Safety Vessel ( ESVAGT FRB 52 & ESVAGT FRB 57 ). Sorry- on the main map they are labelled as ‘tug/ special craft’.
True- it can’t be long either before they release news about take off agreements. The last presentation said there were 10 interested parties! The longer it takes, suggests to me there could be some serious contract bidding going on. Lastly, with the price of gas per therm rocketing, I can’t see LOG admin selling out yet…..unless a substantial buyer makes a serious bid to take it off their hands…..
Hmmmm- according to marine traffic, there are two tugs near the Hans Noble Duel ( but just out of range to be identified). Has anyone got access to the satellite data stream to identify and confirm they are waiting to move the ‘Duel’? I also note the supply ship Vos Paradise has been more busy than usual making 2 runs to the jack up rig in under 36 hours.