Tribe Technology set to deliver healthy pipeline of orders from Tier-One miners. Watch the video here.
"African infrastructure hopes & plans are plentiful, what we need is a real strategic investor into ZIOC after that the rest falls into place."
Well, funny you should say that. Today Bandar Al Khorayef met the UN to discuss, 'various development projects globally'. (Al Khorayef is, of course, in charge of Ma'aden and Manara Minerals. He also had overall responsibility for the development of Gas Al Khair, the Saudi green steel hub, and met with Gary Nagel in Switzerland back in May.)
H.E Minister of #Industry_and_Mineral_Resources Bandar AlKhorayef, met with Mr. Gerd Muller Director General of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization, to discuss ways ofenhancing joint cooperation in the field of industrial development and contribute to supporting various development projects globally.
https://twitter.com/mimgov/status/1729842756380484072
Not sure it matters. Clearly Sapro Mayoko is receiving Afreximbank support, and so their development must be nigh - and the rail line runs straight through that cluster of iron ore deposits.
2. Shared Infrastructure cont.
Big D talks about the rail refurb from Dolisie to Minda.
This is the key section that would facilitate ZIOC's EPP, and all that lovely, high margin DSO.
Dolisie and Minda are both clearly marked on the ZIOC map from the latest Investor Presentation, p.9:
https://www.zanagairon.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Zanaga-Investor-Presentation-1-Nov-2023-1.pdf
The Sapro Mayoko mine is on the rail line and very likely the 'other mining project developer/s' to which ZIOC refer.
Earlier this month S-M secured a $96m trade finance facility from Afreximbank:
'The financing will have a positive impact on the economic and social development of the Republic of Congo, as it is expected to create jobs, stimulate economic activity, and improve the living conditions of the local population, especially in the Niari province, where the Mayoko Mine is located.
It will also have a positive impact on the regional and continental development, as it will enhance the connectivity and trade potential of the Republic of Congo and its neighbouring countries, especially Gabon.'
https://en.amwalalghad.com/afreximbank-signs-96-million-trade-facility-with-congos-sapro-mayoko/
>There's masses of behind the scenes activity, that's for sure.
Some quotes from Big D's speech on his National Day resonated straight into ZIOC's RNS statements.
1. KEY CATALYST
The major one is this:
"Pour l’exportation de ses minerais, notre pays a retenu la construction d’un port minéralier à la Pointe–Indienne, à environ 20 kilomètres de Pointe–Noire."
(translation): For the export of our minerals, our country has decided to build a mineral port at Pointe-Indienne, approximately 20 kilometers from Pointe-Noire.
The mineral port was described thus by ZIOC in September 2018:
New Mineral Port in Pointe-Indienne
In March 2013, the RoC signed a Memorandum of Understanding with China Communications Construction Company ("CCCC"), and its subsidiary China Road and Bridge Corporation ("CRBC"), for the development of a new multi-user port facility 9km north of the existing port of Pointe-Noire at Pointe Indienne, including a deepwater bulk export facility for the iron ore industry. CRBC has conducted a significant amount of work on this major project, including a feasibility study on the port development.
Advancement of the new port development could provide a KEY CATALYST in allowing the Zanaga 12Mtpa Stage One development project to derisk and proceed towards seeking finance.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ZIOC/half-year-report-79kz4g1pbr0l1s6.html
2. Shared Infrastructure
"Le Chemin de fer Congo-Océan, avec la construction des gares modernes et la réhabilitation des voies après plusieurs années d’inactivité, à l’image de la voie Dolisie – Mbinda, de l’ex-Comilog."
(translation): The Congo-Ocean Railway, with the construction of modern stations and the rehabilitation of the tracks after several years of inactivity, like the Dolisie – Mbinda track, of the former Comilog.
That is the northern spur of the rail line from Pointe Noire, Dolisie then past Sapro-Mayoko and potentially across the border into Gabon.
In Sptember 2022, ZIOC said this:
Early Production Project ("EPP Project" or "EPP")
o Numerous production scenarios remain under investigation on processing facilities and suitable logistics solutions, with a particular focus on an export solutions through the Republic of Congo ("RoC")
o Significant engagement underway with other mining project developers in RoC to explore potential collaboration opportunities, especially in relation to logistics solutions and alternatives for upgrades to existing infrastructure
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ZIOC/interim-results-5ifwptotddk9sle.html
https://www.adiac-congo.com/content/message-de-son-excellence-m-denis-sassou-nguesso-president-de-la-republique-chef-de-letat
I think you meant to say 'treble', Marcus.
Just as we look set to value Zanaga, iron ore benchmark is projected to $150/t
That would put Zanaga's 67.5% at $175+ and send our NPV into orbit.
BOOM
https://www.mining.com/web/iron-ore-price-poised-to-hit-150-in-2024-on-chinese-stimulus-analysts-say/
Nice one, 'always'!
Interesting indeed that K-SURE, the Korean export guarantee agency, are one of the latest funders for the PIF. The giant Korean steel conglomerate, POSCO, are active across the Gulf green steel hubs, and perhaps very significantly have huge Hydrogen operations either underway or under development.
I haven't been checking the number of shares in issue, however this morning I note a discrepancy between LSE and ZIOC's own website.
LSE have 605.37m issued whereas ZIOC have 632.99m
The difference is 27.64m
Can anyone enlighten? It might explain the lack of any Shard RNS on the tranches.
No worries, Mitch!
The central point is that the BoD anticipate a situation in which they have the funds to buy 95m shares at whatever the prevailing price might be.
Given that they/we currently have Shard on the offer that 95m directly implies a startling change of fortunes.....
Resolution 10
ZIOC's Board of Directors project a situation within the next 12 months that would move them from selling 3 tranches of 12m shares via Shard to be able to buy 95m shares at up to 105% of the prevailing market price.....whatever that might be!!!
Mine's a large one!!!!!
The BoD have been able to go pre-Christmas.
> The EPC re-costings must be done and in-hand.
Bring it on!!!
RESOLUTION 10
Very, very interesting indeed!!!! Now, I wonder why the BoD would consider this and, and this is a dead giveaway that a deal is imminent, where might the cash come from?
The answer, of course, is from our selected Strategic Investor buying into the project.
The BoD are looking for authority to Buy In up to 95m shares.
> This will be for a situation in which out Strategic Investor has bought in ('paid to play') and the BoD figure the SP is below the new NPV.
>> At the £1.54 IPO price and 95m shares that would be £145m
>>> this is a massive 'tell' and support to the future SP.
Hi Veteran10 - I did give an answer of sorts in a post at 14:04 on Nov 23rd.
Also, my thinking is now that we are unlikely to see a Buy Out in the near future. The reason being is that there are far too many variables and unknowns for either ZIOC to price Zanaga at what it is really worth (stratospheric and beyond anything put on these boards), or which the inward investors would be prepared to pay - at least not yet.
FWIW I reckon our incoming strategic investment consortium will hand over a substantial chunk of cash by way of a 'pay to play' and then 'earn in' to the project. The valuation will be based initially on our NPV. This is, of course, heavily dependent on the EPC repostings due any day now.
The NPV can be roughly guesstimated using the chart supplied on p.20 on the March 2019 Investor Presentation. The difficultly is that almost all the pricing factors and drivers have now changed - all of them in ZIOC's favour:
https://www.zanagairon.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/ZIOC-IP-28.03.19.pdf
A key part of the Strategic Investor deal will be to carry out a large scale drill program. This will give a much more realistic appraisal of the size of Zanaga. This will determine the ultimate buy out price which I expect to be many times even the bullish scenarios of the current NPV.
Bringing this back to the top for some explanation.
My consortium would be:
35% : China (via Baosteel and our EPC's connections)
35%: A grand Gulf Consortium (SA, Oman, and UAE for their green steel hubs)
20%: ZIOC
10%: Republic of Congo (as per the original mining convention).
Notes:
Vale get their cut via shipping the ore (recall the VLOCs MoU with AD Ports) and by toll processing Zanaga's high grade iron ore into cold pellets/briquettes at the 3 pellet plants they have commited at each of the 3 steel hubs. 2 things here; that Zanaga's ore has already been tested and passed cold binding techniques, and that Vale undertook to give the capacity of each pellet plant by the end of this year.
ZIOC, I reckon, will ring-fence the highly lucrative DSO from any strategic investor deal on the Staged Development Project. A DSO EPP at 1 or even 2mtpa will throw off bundles of cash to cover our share of staged development costs.
Timing: ZIOC have committed to 1Q24 to select our strategic partner, whilst MBS said that there are a few things they would like to close in 1H24 to complete Vision2030 and move onto Vision2040. Green steel is integral. This points to the Future Metals Forum in Riyadh from 9th-11th January upcoming.
Deal Structure: I think our selected Strategic Partner will earn in to the Staged Development Project. They'll be a significant up front payment to kick things off (and provide a chunky special dividend next year). Also ur partner will undertake a substantial drill program to both firm up Resource into Reserve status and to extend the overall Resource along strike, where just 25 of 47km have been drilled. This could and should dramatically increase the Resource/Reserve statement which will, in turn, allow projections to the 60mtpa which was floated in the IP a few weeks back.
Kicker. Once the drill campaign is completed and the mine build well underway (say 2 years time) the Strategic Partner will have the option to buy us out completely according to some predetermined formula. I expect this to put a stratospheric valuation on our stake.
Hi nibj - I think that's the way of: Glencore cannot either take shares in lieu or buy from Shard given that they are as 'inside' as you can get. That they cannot do so, i.e. there is game changing news in the offing, could (and should) be taken as very positive.
Clifford Elphick gave us an insight into his Shard thinking in the 3rd July subscription RNS, with 'milestones' being key.
Clifford Elphick, Chairman of ZIOC commented:
"...This transaction enables ZIOC to secure capital in the future as the project progresses and further milestones are achieved."
The Investor Presentation of a few weeks back labels the upcoming news as being 'milestones', the first being the EPC repostings due this quarter. Putting the 2 together implies that Elphick expects the EPC news to be a great opportunity for Shard - which would mean a higher SP. We shall see, of course.
Jiving - some try to be clever, some funny.
A few can do both.
You can do neither.
This board was populated for genuine investment comment. Apart from the odd muppet incursion, it has been kept that way. The regular LSE board is available. If accounts want to indulge in irrelevant and illogical chatter, please do it over there.
(sigh)...and back in the real world of industrial development, the UAE are rolling out green steel ahead of COP28 next week.
https://www.steeltimesint.com/news/emirates-steel-partners-with-masdar-on-green-hydrogen-project
Repeating the pattern of the last couple of weeks, another 380,000 shares in 2 lots got reported after the close.
IMO Shard's supply is being disbursed at 'mates' rates'.....
There is a glaring hole in your argument: Glencore's loan *cannot* be converted.
Were they to do so they would be receiving shares/maintaining their holding while in possession of inside knowledge not shared with the wider market.
That would be illegal and unethical.
Impossible.
The very reason they haven't taken up a pro rata of the Shard subscription facility - they cannot maintain their shareholding while in possession of insider info.