IntelliAM aiming for significant growth with £5 million Aquis IPO. Watch the video here.
Denby,
You are correct, gold star. I am typically bearish, well, because we're in a bear market.
Probably 75% of the trades i've done in the last 12 months were shorts (total guess), because the UK small cap space is in disarray.
You'll note that i've been particularly bearish on lithium stocks generally (CTL, KOD,PREM). When the spot price of the commodity in question drops 75% in a year, it makes sense to me.
I haven't 'invested' in a great deal in a while, other than some gold exposure (HUM,SHG).
Short term trades around volume, price, sentiment, trend are in my view, the only way to make money in this (awful) market.
Bob,
The last fund raise was in October, the virtual peak of the lithium bull market. A lithium company raising money in that environment was effortless.
Spot lithium has fallen ~75% since October, as has the optimism around the sector. Raising funds in this environment is a whole different ball game.
IC - I've said i've taken a punt on a short based on the volume indicators flashing it up, and the company advising of "raising funds" in the coming months within the September interims.
So yes, I am posting here frequently.
I posted frequently on the KOD board recently when I gave my estimate that the share price would retrace heavily following the funding deal, I took lots of abuse from long term holders for that estimate. I placed my short upon funding news, and the share price has retraced heavily.
I had nothing against KOD long term, nor do I have anything against CTL long term, this is just the short term trading of market mechanics, win some, you lose some.
Revolting peasant,
The breakdown of costs you have given is irrelevant in regards of the company desperately requiring cash for working capital
The breakdown you provide is clearly what the mid-term plan is for the major funding package (end of 2024 discussions to start)
The interims highlight an approximate cash burn of £5m per half year. The interims also highlighted £4.6m of cash at the turn of the half-year. On that trajectory, basic maths dictates that the company needs cash, plain and simple. The interims from the company literally told its investors that it will need to raise funds.
Price action and volume is often the best indicator for such events, but having read the interims, and the company’s own June admission of raising funds “in the coming months”, it looks as close to a certainty as you can get. I guess time will tell.
Lord,
Bradda Head IPO'd at 7p, they got to over 16p, they are now 2.40p.
The lithium space has been marmalised in the last 12 months, CTL IPO'd in a hyper bullish lithium space (much like BHL).
To think IPO level is the safety net is naive.
IC,
I'd have to disagree, to advance is to "move forward", I would read that as to hopefully bring that end of 2024 funding date closer.
"Potential strategic partners" reads to me as nothing more than the hoped suitors, 12 months down the line.
We're splitting hairs, ultimately my is that the price action and volume screams fund raise, it may or may not happen.
Lord,
Must admit I wasn't following until this week. An increased volume indicator popped up which led me to check for any obvious reasons why that might be the case.
The interims highlighted that major flag, it's not all that often that a company actually tells the market it needs to raise funds soon. The fact the volume shot up typically highlights that some form of corporate action is imminent.
This was 24p to buy earlier in the week. I'd be amazed if they could manage anything above that.
IC,
Easy to cherry pick items from around the globe to suit, but to offer some undeniable counters.
Galan Lithium is looking to go into production one year ahead of what CTL is.
If you look at Page 12 of CTL’s very own October presentation, it states they will seek ‘strategic partner funding’ at the back end of 2024. Which, as if by chance, correlated with CTL being a full year behind a company like Galan.
(https://wp-ctlithium-rebuild-2022.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/10/CTL-Company-Presentation-October-2023-Final-24.10.23.pdf)
CTL are simply at explorer/minnow stage for now, and with that, comes equity raises like the rest of the small cap commodity space.
Doesn't a shorter just love it when a retail investor ignores words from the company itself:
“In the meantime, with £4.6 million of funds held at 30 June 2023, the Company will continue its work programme and look to RAISE ADDITIONAL FUNDS”
Keep buying punters, we need more borrow.
Just secured some borrow as it’s got all the hallmarks of a pre-placing pump.
The broker said “there is a high chance of recall”
In my experience, in 99 times out of a 100, it means a fundraise is being imminently worked, so Lord, you are almost certainly going to be proved wrong.
TheLord,
Companies don’t decide if they raise via equity or not, they are forced.
You’re in dreamland if you think there isn’t hefty dilution on the way.
Page 13 of the results stated:
“In the meantime, with £4.6 million of funds held at 30 June 2023, the Company will continue its work programme and look to raise additional funds”
Based on previous cash flow requirements, versus the cash they had at 30th June, they are pretty damn skint as is.
What price is the placing going to be at!?
https://wp-ctlithium-rebuild-2022.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/09/CTL-2023-Interim-FINAL-29.09.23.pdf
Sash,
Appreciate the words. Like I say, I hope this works out long term. There is no real reason why it shouldn’t turn out to be a great long term investment. As I mentioned earlier, I do think ALL appears to more compelling fundamentals, but different strokes for different folks.
Good luck all.
I may come in for a bounce trade (long) if this gets really overdone (0.4p level)
Daz,
In just over three years, there has literally been two military coups in Mali. If they turned out a different way, your investment would've been a genuine zero.
Jurisdictional risk doesn't care for what grades you have.
You've got a lot to learn if you think you're home and dry in Mali!
Daz,
That 20% was on 4x leverage, so I received an 80% return on my investment, in three days, at as close to risk free as imaginable.
You've held for 3 years and made 120%, and dealt with 3 years of risk.
You do you.
KamiK,
0.71 to 0.55p in three days says market mechanics trumped fundamentals.
Excellent ROI in a very short space of time.
I'll take the low hanging fruit, seen as though it presented itself so quickly. I expect a drift towards 0.50p, but that could take weeks/months.
All the best long termers, and remember, market mechanics ALWAYS trump fundamentals
Elco,
I’m guessing you’d not read my earlier posts on KOD. I don’t plan to be here for months or even years. I hope it’s successful long term. I’ll be out of here within days/weeks I suspect. Aim for 100% ROI in that period if I can manage it.
This is a trade devoid of emotion (far too much of that on here from the longs). Simple market mechanics. Known news ALWAYS gets sold in to: Buyers bought for the news, sellers sell on arrival of that news.
CLK man - Chin up. Another 18-24 months and you might see that 0.9p level again.
I wouldn’t want to be long any lithium company in the immediate term, especially in Africa. However, if I ever did, the economics of Atlantic Lithium are factors better than KOD, I was quite staggered when I compared earlier today.
Heads up chaps.
Horult,
You may want to reassess the definition failure, today has been excellent, played out very well (albeit the lemmings didn't even believe their own story enough to but it up higher).
The presentation fluff was the perfect time to execute.
0.50p placing remember chaps, enjoy.
CLK Man, (no idea on Mark)
It’s almost like I’ve called this to an absolute tee right? I took some insults for my predictions. Feel free to follow me around LSE CLK and observe future calls.
CLK,
Well done on your win, I know you're feeling flummoxed at the reaction of the last 24 hours, but take solace that you held during the lithium bull run, better to be lucky than good as they say.