Tribe Technology set to deliver healthy pipeline of orders from Tier-One miners. Watch the video here.
Being on both sides trading for living, shorters do not win all the time. Won on clln and Irv, but somewhat even with LMI. At this low point, when this dog turns, the speed to get out can be ferocious.
Been topping up today near 7 to 7.2p. expect to top up in 6.5 to 7p.
Right now, shorters party time today, may be a day or two more , usually after results. Too many panicky O sellers, but good opp to buy selectively.
Duffy did not give a convincing update, fail to address debts reduction. He is relaxed because of the renego convenants which are easy 2020. The problem is debts, pdl has the advantage of Rand, 4 big carats, but debts somewhat unchanged, even with reduced capex. Bad news,Cost of production remains high on inflation 7% and diamond price sag 5% from previous update which form the baseline if the 150 to 200 Mln fcf. Yes, Duffy has production output leverage, 10 to 25% higher. Overall there is good opportunity but he must reduce debts.
Still think the risk reward for this dog is worth the punt for one year horizon. Diamond price expect to remain under pressure, just like platinum. Would not take Duffy words that the diamond price would turn around quickly when it turn (bolluck) with reduce in global production. They same the same on platinum, still no improvement for years. Duffy must start to sell assets, run it well to attract buyers. One year horizon. 21Oct the next update, but before that by end of this month may have some update from DeBeers, doubt and improvements until post Valentine next year.
Be patient. This will continue to fall, although 0p is obviously not possible, unless fcf in trouble and debt rises.
I recall my worst investment was LMI when it fell more than 6 months to less than 1p. A much worse cash strap company and almost bankrupt compared to PDL. Environment on platinum and rough diamonds about the same , dire. It then reversed an rises to above 150p with improve fcf. Followed by more sp roller coaster.
Pdl will continue to be beaten, but as CD has stated, shorts margin is decreasing and risky. Judging from today, just panick by O sellers feeding into A sellers. The results not great on debt, it could have been worst, and more selling pressure may come soon in next few days. May have to sit on this until early 1Q 2020 to see decent recovery. No big institution buyers.
This going to take 6 to 12 months recovery. Must watch pdl debt level though and this not going to snap up in price soon unless someone has a take over interest.
Win/Mill shorters are vultures, late arrival. Typical shorts focus on
1. Debts, high debts and main product rough diamond weak market. Slow Debts repayment or perceive at risk.
2. Large shareholders remains only Aberdeen 15%, cobas and Lazard 4.9%each and management 3.8%. large holder like BlackRock and TRowe had bailed. There is no new large buyer at all and shorters hoping other large holder will bail as each hold about 40mln at 5% level. So, hoping for Aberdeen, Lazard or cobas to buckle.
Late arrival means very risky bets. Duffy if he goes goofy on 16Sep falls right into their advantage. So, pray hard Duffy not a goofy , fcf some improvement and no negative news.
This is a long term hold, 6 mths to 1 year. Judging from the market reaction until today, another sp drop may be installed. Well if it drops, I will top up again, as been topping up at this 8p range.
Good luck to pdl punters.
PMO is one of those debt pile stock; 2 bln, roller coaster stock, blue eye stock, to pariah 20+p and now back to 80p.
Debt still shi.....it high. The CEO Tony was forced to published debt reduction plans. Debts was restructured am nay times. Luck finally came, oil price move up. Same will happen with PDL. As CD sates, debt only 500 mln. But operations in Africa always fill with incidents, thus has to be cautious. Much easier for PDL to reduce its debts; not necessary to zero; carry 200 to 300 millions is fine in long run.
Like many debt ridden companies, PMO; LMI, ENQ etc; lifeline is FCF. As long as do not turn out to be CLLN or Interserve.
Hang tight for double digit; patience.
I am still loading up while it takes time to break 9 p ceiling.
Agree with CD. I would enjoy the shorters at this bottom price as they will get panicky soon. Note that these fews days, Auto bots have been buying more often. The spring coil is heavily coiled, about to release the hatch.
See what Duffy can do in the next two or three trading updates. Never trust the management too much. They can say no fund raising (which likely to be true in 2020, and may be 2021), but beyond that management U turn can happen such as the 40p right issues out of the blue.
I am taking a punt with one year horizon view only for sp back above 30p. Beyond 2020 things can be risky if Duffy struggle to deliver the targeted yearly prorated cashflow.
Good luck to all, hold tight.
There are several.
Try this
http://www.idexonline.com/diamond_prices_index
All charts not pretty, down trend.
Good metaphor...wish there was 20 Mln buy, or is it 20 Mln sell?....hahaha. No smoke without fire.
It will be bots buy and sell today as well, plan is to break the nerves of holders. Someone will accumulate.
Once the bracken (seller days up, even bots gets bored), the upwards swing will come soon.
Hahaha...soon will be over for shorters.
Panic closing will occur.
Have long close shorts from 115p to 60p, to right issues 40p and 15p. Reversed to accumulate.
Thanks for shorters keep giving. At such low reward versus risk, shorters be careful.