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I think this rollercoaster ride with stocks is going to gone on for some weeks , will it go under 100 who knows but miners and others might have a delay drop months later , if this virus pushes the eu and others into a recession With some countries being already borderline ,commodity prices will fall as CHINA sells loads to the EU .
You could be right it is going to an interesting few weeks.
It is strange how a few weeks can change everything, there are stocks where the sp I thought was once too high that is now starting to look like real bargains and there are stocks that I thought were once cheap which now I would not touch with a barge pole.
I believe there is a lot more bad news to come from this virus, I think the general sp rise is going to be a blimp on a downward path if I am wrong then I am going to miss the boat and kick myself.
If I am right then the nerve-wracking question is where or when is the lowest point going to be.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Was site I was using
The flu has been around for years and comes in big waves this virus is new and has just started .Day by day the odds of it being kept confined go down as it spreads out still with low numbers
Flu infection rate 1.3 and deaths rate under 0.1 %. With the flu say 3 percent may need to go to hospital.
With limited information on the New virus infection rate is 2 to 3 some even say 4 ie People that will get infection of 1 person and Death rate 1% and in wudan if spelt correctly which was hit hard Is Near 5 % death rate and with limited medical help at start of out break . On Chinese numbers 21% are serious or critical of the currant infected numbers and Total infected number 17% have or are serious or critical from all reported cases. Could be. Many that are not counted tho.
This could be way worst than the flu
Imagine this the was able to grow in time to flue numbers . The 14000 deaths could be 140k deaths on a 10 x death rate to flu and more infectious
Iron ore at the ports has gone down from last weeks high if I have read it correctly still 144.55 mt lower than this time last year high so things seem to be improving a bit.
Is china being honest about the virus numbers in Beijing there are 375 cases going up around 10 a day on a population of 18 million yet the one that came here from Beijing had the virus what the odds of her being number 11 of that day out of 18 million? I know there could be other factors.
Cases are increasing slowly in the rest of the world but are being handled tho it seems china Japan Singapore hong kong are losing the battle slowly.
Talk about the butterfly effect possibly a boy/man in a dirty old market place on the side of the world trying to sell a bat for 20p for food to a possible outcome that could cause so many to die and millions to lose their jobs and possibly even a global slow down costing hundreds of billions even a trillion by the time this has done it rounds.
You could be right but I am going to wait in the shadows , new case in London tonight , I read some where they came back from China a few days ago no idea if true I would love to know why we have not stopped all flights to China for at least a month.
I am happy people have made money. Tho I don’t ,t think it will last tho so far I have been proven wrong.
Things are changing very slowly 2 shops 1 around lunch time and 1 tonight both Sold out of hand gel maybe just bad luck or signs of things to come.
I was giving my thinking behind cashing out. I agree people over panic and fear create more fear which will affect the markets.
if any of that stuff I said was to come true the markets will fall, eventually, it will become the new norm and bounce back in 3 months 6 months a year who knows.
If I was to invest now in say 20 stocks over the next 6 months will I lost a lot of money I am thinking the answer will most likely be yes. in my view.
Risk v Reward at the moment it looks I over panic with my stocks selling but time will tell if I am being foolish or wise I am just going to play safe for now and hold cash.
I totally agree with everything you have said.
My heart hopes for everything to improve this virus could be very dangerous for some friends and family.
My head tells me this virus is like an unstoppable train that is going to have a big impact on us and the global trade, they could close the border but they will not and many thousands if not 10s of thousands that get this virus will die.
I think the market will fall a lot in time. plus the American market is already overpriced compared to the EU markets. unless we get a very hot summer to help kill the virus or A vaccine that is rushed through.
The negative view I have at the moment is not shared by the stock market. I can see bus companies or train companies even airlines struggling or even going bust.
In the UK/ The west we never had anything like this virus in modern times, high street shops that are struggling this could be the final straw as even more people will buy online.
The NHS struggles with 0.1 death rate of the flu and between 40 to 60 extra people a week needing to be admitted in the winter, how will it cope with extra hundreds to thousands of patients needing to be admitted per week.
Worst case view I know it sounds far fetched at the moment but I look at what's happening in China and what's the world going to look like in 6 months.
The sp held up fairly well compared to the rest of the miners.
The virus seems to be self-sustaining numbers growing slowly in the rest of the world and 34500 infections now from 550 on the 23 jan and still getting worst day by day in china. Some said a while back they may affect china's growth by a small amount then 2 weeks later Some reports suggest this could lead to a global recession. what will be said in 2 weeks time
Commodities could be in for a real rough ride.
Looks like I miss judge the market response badly as it nearly 6% up in 2 days .
With infections going up 20% every 24 hours and the death Toll going up 10% every 24 hours, even with the lock downs .
i would think people would be bonkers to invest in any share other than medical equipment companies, the market disagrees with me , lets just hope this virus does not hit the Poor large cities like Mumbai
I predict that 90% of FSTE stock will be down from this point in 3-4 weeks time unless people stop worrying about this virus, at the moment it is mostly over there and not here thinking in most people's minds but this could change.
When all the Chinese go back to work, all the mild cases will spread the virus and in 7 to 14 to 18 days time we will get an even bigger spike not counting the rest of the world.
No one really knows how weak or strong the virus is yet compared to the flue or how bad it could get, tho it seems to be very contagious, so many unknowns. I think we going to have way more bad days than those good days in the next few weeks. my 2 pennies worth.
I like FXPO the price should be way higher the results are going to be nothing but stellar going by the iron ore prices in 2019.
The only 2 downsides are that if the SP follows iron ore prices and if prices crash so could the SP like all miners but add this to the unknown risk still involving the ex CEO, time passes and we forget but it has not gone away. What will that outcome be and could assets be seized however unlikely this maybe it is still not impossible. Is why the SP is not 250+