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Fear of losing money.
The lack of information from BOD
When/If the dividend will come back and will it be cut. I think this could make the difference if we go back to £4+ if the 30.9p is retained.
The solvency 11 last updates on 16 march I think at 175% plus 6% dividend so 181% coverage. Where are we now I'm guessing around 190% but no idea in reality?
How much money could be paid out on policies? A big unknown.
How much money will AV make? A big unknown tho my guess will be on pensions down some no new jobs being created, and less payout on home and car, etc but making a ton on new life insurances being sold.
On existing funds self-generating 2.3 billion if I have read it correctly? That going to take a huge hit as many stocks ect not paying dividends and many shares have gone down unless the funds are somewhere safe. A big unknown for me
Is the company safe? yes from what I can see and understand.
Should the company be broken up? nope, fingers in many pies are better than just in 1 pie.
Should the BOD be brave? If they still have 10 to 20 billion in funds + borrowing extra funds what an opportunity for the brave to create a big take over of another company they could buy RBS for say 15 to 20 billion or BARCS for more or another insurance company.
My 2 pennies worth from what i understand and if I understand it correctly
I think net assets 423p share would include that the only thing you could remove would be the Intangible Assets as it not real money but this would be on prices of everything at the beginning of the year, I guess the risk would be if everything drops by 50% assets could drop to say 200 billion depending what it is invested in, while liabilities could be the same 400 billion.
Feel free to correct me as I am no expert.
This is why I like these chats there are always people with way more knowledge than me.
I think the dividend is nearer 13.5 % at these prices at 30.9p if it goes back to the amount announced before it was stopped.
I am no expert on the in and outs of insurances but would I be right in thinking that they have 423 p per share net asset and near 20 billion net cash and tradeable as of the start of the year .
The coverage Solvency II cover ratio 206% on final results now probably near 190 ish after stopping the dividend and market improvements since 175% coverage announcement.
From what others had said the cover for pandemics seems to be rather limited on AV policies.
When they do have to pay out would their assets drop but all so would not their liabilities all so go down?
Let say for argument sake they have 460bilion in assets and 440billion in liabilities, and it a disaster on the payout and they pay out 100 billion, they would drop 100 billion in assets but would they not all so drop 100 billion in liabilities and keep the 20 billion in cash and tradeable or is there a percentage rule on what counts as liabilities or is it 100% of coverage of a policy
that is counted as liabilities.??
A nice 4% to 5% rise would be good.
Over the last few months, it does seem to spike up to and around 260 ish before it starts to drop to around 230 as someone else here said, let us hope it don,t like to break this pattern id be happy with 260 again.
DC you just need to be patience I'm down near 4% from 237, I know this is nothing compared to your position but I have no concerns with AV future.
Original plan+back up plan to sit on my hands and wait for the dividend to be reinstated next year.
I am hoping it will be at the old rate but even if it was cut by 50% would still be near 6 to 7% at current prices with huge hikes in dividends in future years.
Life insurances they probably selling more than ever.
General insurance people will still need it.
Pensions funds not going anywhere.
This year they might be more generous on delayed payments and extra payouts but next year will be more like normal.
The good news on a horrid day like this is everyone is down so everyone average is down.
So the FTSE on average has more to gain on another day.
The USA markets have ballooned since march 23 gaining much of there losses for the year excluding the last few days with some people starting to say that they had become too high for the situation we are in.
One could argue that if we're all to go down together that the EU markets could rebound better than the USA markets due to better news here
One could argue that the USA markets could be dropping back to where they meant to be and taking us to new lows at the same time.
One could argue that this is just a blip and the USA markets will ballon again and more USA big investors will start looking further afield for investment for better returns.
Every day that goes pass the odds increase that someone will announce a new vaccine is working and they are going into production while larger tests are being carried out.
When that happens, I would not be surprised if we don,t go up anywhere between 5% and 10% for the FTSE and possibly higher with some companies.
After this the tide will turn and very very slowly the trend upwards will start.
I sold yesterday at 248.50 i started to waiver when i saw dow falling it was looking more negative than positive.
Brought back in this morning at 237 so i am hoping for the 240+
But if it was to go down to 230 it will only be a matter of time before it goes up.
Who would risk it or would have the spare cash to attempt it at this time.it would probably be a share deal if at all.
Even if someone was out there they might only offer 30% above the closing price the BOD would probably not recommend it and how many long term investors would say no to say a 320 in share value offer with there averages in the 300 400 or 500.
I would guess DC knows that the fundamentals of AVIVA are sound and that one day they will go back up.
I suspect he just frustrated on the way the BOD has handle the company and the falling SP and then virus came along and shattered an already low SP
IN a healthy time a company that makes 3.2 billion would not be worth 9.5 billion with 185%+ coverage with a 12.5% dividend at the current price on the old payout of 31p and I can see why he has not sold why risk jumping from the frying pan to the fire, one day this will go back up.
I'm guessing it must be extremely frustrating to see all this yet the SP struggles to rise compared to others.