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I wouldn't say ignore the short term, no. I'd say they're just as valid as the long term trend. Minute and hourly candlesticks tell as much of a story about direction as daily candlesticks. I agree the 6 month trend is positive, but it's travelling within a channel, and within that channel it will test the upper and lower bounds. At the moment, the candlesticks still suggest it would like to test the lows of that channel before moving on to test the highs again. And that seems to align with the general sentiment in the market at the moment, Nvidia froth not withstanding.
It was, for a short lived accelerated downtrend that it quickly broke back out of Tuesday morning. It's since been giving off some bullish signals and subsequently rallied some, back to test the original, much more established trend line. It could be bullish still, or it could be a bull trap. It won't become clear until it's tested that main trend line more.
Cong. It's mostly that THG was up 100% in 3 months, and up over 200% from all time lows. Shares like Boohoo and ASOS who have often tracked similar trends to THG are already at or circling around their lows. They are bouncing off the bottom and feeling out if they want to break down even lower, whereas THG has a lot of recent gains to fall back through first, hence why THG appears to be falling harder.
It's hard to say, Yespsb. Depends what support there is in the 60s. If it doesn't hold there it's probably 32 again. Depends how long this pull back lasts and how soon it tests the first support. If it tests it in a few days and the market stays risk off until mid-September, then it could easily revisit 32 again. The momentum it's carrying is not favourable right now.
Risk off market pullback care of China woes, sticky wage and service inflation and thus rates higher for much longer, AI boom rightsizing.
From a TA perspective, THG and other shares have been throwing off very bearish signals since last Monday when it broke down below a 3 month trend line, followed by a failed breakout from a new downward trend, and now seems to be in an accelerated downward trend that would see it testing the next support level by Thursday.
There's a new, much steeper trend line now, which it has now tested 5 times, having butted up against 90.5 this morning. Seems like it'll be searching out support by Thursday and probably starting that movement this afternoon.
"To be fair, if they're not good results, then quite honestly, we deserve to be back down in the 60s or lower but this would be a disaster for me and many others. It would be egg on faces all around given the recent posts. THG would be a laughing stock (no pun intended)."
I like THG as a prospect, as a business going forward - the brands are strong, but whether we like it or not, it is already a laughing stock. Every weekend for nearly 2 years the company and founder have been derided in the sunday papers. The amount of times Matt Moulding's shirtless photo has appeared in the Business pages is just plain weird now. Matt simply cannot stop venting his spleen, whether from a position of strength or weakness, he cannot stop himself and it so rarely reflects well on him or the company. Nobody should be reading all that much into rant number 46 of his lonely campaign to right all wrongs. Every pullback the posts on here claim there's a plan, that he's smug and confident, soon to surprise the shorters and take his revenge. But the real plan as far as anyone can tell, is to trade themselves out of this. There's no shortcuts.
"Kando
The lowest price ‘on book’ trade was at 11.11.22 @ 86.06
The 5 lower priced trades were all off book"
Unfortunately algorithms and traders don't care about that distinction. It fell through this supposed support. Low of the day as recorded on lse was 85.70.
But for what it's worth, I broadly agree with this:
"2024 should be nearer 180-200, or 1.93 at lower end"
I think the long term trend will see it in that range by mid-late 2024. Short term, obviously you don't want to discuss, so let's not.
I'm really sorry you're taking this so personally Goodtimescoming.
Can you not just say you disagree with your reading of the chart and move on. You're wasting an awful lot of time typing an awful lot of bile.
It's kind of you to be concerned, but your certainty is misplaced. Somewhere in my posting history you'll find my average.
Again, you're discussing fundamentals. This is about technicals. If I disliked the company I never would have invested in it.
"Not sure why you are so short term focused. 3 week view for an investor is fairly embarrassingly short sighted"
Because capital preservation is important? 3 weeks is a long time in a bear market.
"There is nothing to stop him putting out a pre results announcement (via RNS) to confirm better numbers.
Remember results day it not set yet.
That would stop the share manipulation in its tracks.
Maybe too conventional for Matt?"
There would actually have to be better numbers though, in order to justify an RNS. Given the volumes I've seen, anecdotally, I'm not convinced these numbers are going to beat. They ought to meet expectations, probably, but they seem unlikely to beat.