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legalwolf: I looked at the cash flow statement and they loaned $2.7m to Kanye. Not sure what the accounting treatment for Kanye is, I'd have thought it was a 100% owned subsidiary which is consolidated on the balance sheet inc cash. Is the group cash position $2.2m as stated in which case they burned though over $2m in Nov/Dec or is there additional cash held by Kanye not counted?
Interesting to look at POW's next steps, wonder how similar AMT, Kav's most recent survey technique, is to MobileMT?
"o Complete a high-resolution mobile magnetotellurics ("MobileMT") airborne geophysical survey. MobileMT is on the cutting edge of geophysical survey methodology and compared to TDEM has multiple advantages including:
o Allows for good discrimination between resistive units (e.g. TDEM cannot effectively map resistive units or discriminate between 1000 ohm-m and 5000 ohm-m formations).
o Can detect superconductors directly.
o Provides superior depth penetration than even high powered TDEM systems (up to 2km in certain geological environments).
o System experiences no problems with induced polarisation ("IP") effects, zero coupling zones or super para-magnetic effects.
o Highest efficiently and quick surveying over flat areas like southern Botswana and can average production of 100km per day with a comparatively low production cost.
§ Across PL311/2016 prepare detailed geological/structural interpretation incorporating all historical drilling and geophysical data available. Trace feeder dyke as possible magma conduit."
I take exception that KAV is desperate or spinning fake news in fact quite the opposite.
Is a 28,000 conductance reading a needle in a hay stack? The other conductors are likely to be up graded 8-10,000 & 4-6,000 so a cracking set of targets.
I've no idea what's going on with timing. BW has a small population so there isn't an endless choice of drilling contractors and I get the feeling Mindea/KAV relations aren't the best so perhaps that's an issue.
The key at the moment seems to be the Ditau assays expected in the next week looking for pathfinders like iron pyrite and ****nic as well as anomalous gold and copper.
One of the pillars of KAV's strategy is project financing & BT said all three projects were ready. He said it was too early stage for major at the KSZ but there were other options. The Lassonde curve visualises the mining life cycle and KAV is in pre-discovery in KSZ and Ditau and still concept in the KCB. For many private investors the money is made in the next phase - discovery. So if KAV does a deal in pre-discovery it provides cash to fund discovery but the returns are significantly lower because the partner takes on risk. You might want or have to do that with the KSZ IOCG because 1000-2000m holes are $200-400k each and it will take spectacular grades to be commercial. The B conductors are shallower 400-600m and so it might be worth the risk of KAV going it alone. BT seemed reluctant to re-drill KSZ, my guess is he wants a JV deal pre drill so if B1 fails there's still cash for the other KSZ targets but the downside is PIs who already suffered 75% dilution in 2022, suffer further 50% dilution on KSZ. BT said the 2022 B1 drill missed "by meters" and its cost PIs millions. Is BT playing chicken with a JV partner by delaying the KSZ drill because the deal isn't attractive, probably. At this rate it won't be drilled until August.
My preference is to drill KSZ first pre JV as KAVs best chance of making a discovery.
BT can be infuriating and misleading at times not least those KSZ assays. Healthy skepticism is fine.
Re Ditau assays, these were addressed in the video from last week, the significance won’t be grades but the decisions which are then triggered.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4fdJySXV-s
Exploration requires theories or the geo’s wouldn’t get out of bed. Theories change in relation to the evidence found eg Ditau carbonatites now IOCG.
Yes it’s quiet, that means BT and co are doing some work!
News flow:
Acquisition(s), assuming a decision was taken in March following the site visit, the legal papers and final negotiation might take a month or two.
Assay results from Ditau, by end of April.
Target identification for Ditau.
Updated targets and geophys on KSZ.
KSZ or Ditau first decision, (likely Ditau).
New drill partner?
Summer of drilling likely end of May or early June.
JV partners, the second pillar of Ben’s strategy, hopefully pushed into the long grass for 6 months.
Other than PIs, I'm not seeing much evidence of funds or professional investors targeting the junior mining sector.
I was surprised Darren has a new Obonga target, hammers home the blunderbuss approach when focussing on Dotted Lake might be more fruitful. Panther had written off Dotted following a mediocre gold drill yet a few yards away lies a promising Nickel target discovered by our neighbours. It pains me say DH is utterly useless.
The comms changed with the Molopo drill campaign, very little information was released, pentlandite should be quite visible, PGEs are generally harder to evaluate pre assays. I get POW does not want to be accused of misleading investors and some of the historical Molopo drilling was uncommercial, nonetheless PIs are clueless if they really found anything. The cynic in me says they want to bundle Tati & Molopo results so there’s at least one good news story.
I’ve often thought the brains of entrepreneurs were hard wired differently to normal people, they exist on a boundary of exponential enthusiasm and rational decision making. It pains me say this (because underlying he’s a decent guy) but at the moment Darren is on another planet. There is no appreciable strategy, mediocre drill results, no focus and of course two jobs. Yes the market cap is covered by the equity stakes but it’s hardly a badge of honour to say the Canadian licences and two drill campaigns have zero value.
A strategic review is required.
At the moment Ben has not presented any evidence to suggest they have strong targets at i10, that’s the frustrating thing. The assays & cores are potential pathfinders, the Mumin theory is credible so I’d like to know more about the targets and the probability of making a commercial discovery.
If KAV are not careful they'll make the same mistake as PL082 where if they'd completed and digested the CSAMT before drilling then it would have saved a lot of money. Ditau seems rushed which would be ok if they found commercial grades with XRF to be confirmed by assays but BT has said the assays are pathfinders rather than commercial discoveries. Ditau feels like its still in a proof of concept stage and these are 400-600m holes so c$100k and they'll need 4-6 holes. Unless there's some killer evidence not in the public domain then KSZ should be drilled first.
Overview:
KSZ north has "B" conductors, conductance reading (Siemens) B1 28,700, B3 4,100 and B4 2,760, B3&4 are likely to be upgraded. B1 is looking like super massive sulphide, want Pentlandite (Nickel) but could contain pyrrhotite. B1 drill Feb22 missed target “by meters”, B1 key to unlocking B3/4 and GRS (Great Red Spot) which is thought to be an IOCG system like Olympic Dam sitting under the B conductors, at 1000-2000m.
KSZ contains a Karoo system and a deeper older Proterozoic system, latter appears more prospective. External expert Hornsey said target southern area where Proterozoic thought to be much closer to surface. Current operations are in Northern part because of the focus on the B1 conductor.
Ditau: looking for rare earth elements (carbonatites), drilled last year& failed to find carbonatites, KAV announced an IOCG system albeit trace amounts of gold which is the focus of recent RNS’s. KAV needs to elaborate a theory and geophysics to pin point gold & copper. External expert Mumin says all the ingredients for a Lode Gold system. KAV appears to be rushing to re-drill before B1.
KCB – well known copper belt, KAV has c5000km2 of licences. Just drilled PL082, total disaster and FU, BT lucky to keep his job. KCB expert Dave Caterall has focussed KAV on Karakubis likely to drill Q423-Q224, decent chance of a discovery as continuance of a known trend and neighbour are drilling.
KAV looking to make acquisitions, “earn ins” possibly Nickel or Lithium.
KAV says it has potential partners for existing KSZ/KCB/Ditau as KAV has completed proof of concept, hopefully they wait until a discovery is made. Part of me thinks KAV is delaying B1 because they want a partner deal pre drill, most PIs just want B1 drilled asap.
Board strengthened last Dec, Peter Wynter Bee chair of Moxico, PWB is the adult in the room.
Strategy (?) a bit of a joke driven by Ben Turney’s bromance with Paul Johnson, rarely hear anything about shareholder value, lots of dilution last year. Feels like PWB having a guiding influence on BT.
KAV’s been a painful investment, steep learning curve for the company but its in a much better place than 2 years ago so current share price is a bargain for those prepared to risk it pre “discovery”. It can be a 10-20 bagger if they find 5g/t Au @ Ditau, or 2% Ni & 1% Cu @ KSZ, but it could be tank Q4 23 if they fail to find anything commercial.
KSZ is 3 conductors, B1,3,4. The interesting thing is the conductance readings for B3 & B4 are constrained due to the resolution of the the EM so KAV was doing additional work, the upside could be materially higher readings and larger targets.