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Https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/3242840/ck-hutchison-backed-hutchmed-eyes-global-expansion-after-fda-approval-novel-cancer-drug
CKH / Hutchmed getting some press coverage in HK
Detailed Sovlep results publication and submission of NDA in China.
Amdiz high level result of registration study.
First sales of Fruq in USA? Could easily happen, Takeda was going to launch asap.
Takeda to test Fruq in GC in Japan/S Korea? Seems a logical approach given China sNDA is in.
EMA approval for Fruq? Have not seen a date for this, I assume it is H1 2024.
This external pot for life will disadvantage the big AE players and will land individuals with higher charges - large corporate schemes are low margin business only viable because of AE driving increasing volumes. It sounds like a bonus for wealth managers like HL, AJB, II who can do D2C at scale. It will be an admin nightmare for larger companies.
Quite surprised by the HK rise this morning…..maybe that is what happens when the US is on holiday….RISK ON.
There is an article in SCMP today (it appeared in my Apple News) saying that there are 10000 pharma cos in China reasearching new treatments…..and suggesting some consolidation is needed.
It was mostly citing comments from Beigene.
https://apple.news/ApctT2EozTm2ElgVaCV7vtg
It was in the top stories from SCMP but I cant find it on the SCMP website
Of equal interest might be how they acquired the increased stake…..who has sold out to Slater.
Presumably they have taken a huge loss on their stake and have lost confidence in VLG.
Other Qs what does Slater own that could be merged with VLG….these events dont happen in isolation. If you have a 15-20% shareholder keen on the idea it is harder for the Boards to refuse.
The routine TUs are end July and end Jan…..the Dec item (and others) have coincided with acquisitions / new contract announcements….
Clearly the market thinks something is afoot today…..unless it is excited about the millions of people who are going to better off by £35/m following today’s NI cut…who will want to rush out and top up their self care products….
SAYE schemes usually have a 6month window to exercise the option to take the shares.
There is also a concession that allows `SAYE shares to be transferred into an ISA within 90 days of the option without triggering a CGT disposal. The shares go into the ISA at the current market value..
With a little careful planning on the timing, you can get £40k of shares into ISAs across two tazx years without any CGT being realised. Eg exercise the option in early Feb, make the first transfer in late Feband the second in early April…..Speak with customer services to submit the right forms.
The Jeffries investor meeting did not disclose much in the way of new information apart from two China regulatory items:
The Elunate NDA for Gastric Cancer is expected to be decided in mid 2024, so a full 12m review period.
The Amdiz NDA seems to be slipping into 2024. While they still said YE 23, they also allowed for it to go into 24. They have had 3m for Sovlep since the trial endpoint results were reported as met without the NDA being submitted in full, so it seems inconceivable they can submit Amdiz before the end of 23.
There is always a trading opportunity on the financials…..trouble is timing and the guessing and we have seen it move quickly in both directions….this is still at a low earnings multiple and if China/US relations improve that will float the boat for many financials.
But no consistent direction from HK or NY they often seem to be moving in different directions on the same day.
Volume is very much in HK now, and I look there more than US for direction.
Hope the Xi/Biden meeting goes ok.
Positive on Just, last TP was 115.
Says just moving to a point of excess capital with potential for positive dividend surprises.
The BOD should have some interesting options to consider
- invest in more new business
- take on more risk by reducing reinsurance
- pay higher dividends or dividend+buy back/debt reduction…...
An interesting point from the IPSEN presentation to DB was that they have a minimum sales target of 300m EUR to buy in a drug/enter a partnership. So it would seem reasonable to infer that Suru cannot reach this target ex-china.
I did listen to the HCM presentation again and they said they were not pursuing Suru outside China at present….rather that do it themselves.
Dropped initially to match the US end of session but recovered that 3% to end broadly flat.
Still good volume.
There was always going to be one market caught out by the early FDA decision announcement….and the US did not like it.
The HK reaction today is positive in my view.