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Or is it all over……17% shareholders are disappointed with the offer - they will have a price.
I wonder how much they will settle for….
I think they need more financial results out there, with a quarterly sales update becoming necessary……..
If the 9 NDAs are made by end 2024 that are on their presentation, it will be the end of 2025 before those are being marketed and the end of 2026 before we have a start up year sales number…and Feb 27 for a FY in a fully launched form…..so there is plenty of time to get back in if it looks successful….and plenty of reasons to go elsewhere in the short term
OBNW, I agree often a redevelopment play…..*Greene King was acquired by. CK Asset a HK based property company in 2019 pre-CoVid….have to think they are less interested in selling beer than rental and development income.
I hold the Non-voting YNGN shares….they get the same dividends and have the same rights in an offer situation but trade at a significant discount to the A shares,,,,,I am hoping they will do what Schroeder’s did and convert to a single class….there has been a significant divergence in SP this last year with gains going to A shares only….so there is the potential for a catch up in the N s too in the short term…..if you want a better yield invest in the Non Voting shares.
Yes…yet another day of unexplained volatility….which could well reverse tomorrow…..
Pointless ups and downs….but they do provide entry points for a short term gain if that is what you want.
3 large US PE groups are said by the FT to be weighing bids for Pensions Insurance Company - which is already owned by PE/Sovereign Wealth Funds.
While it will be easier for an off market deal to be struck, it will provide a benchmark valuation…and the disappointed bidders (unless they go into a consotium) may take a look at Just….lets see what transpires….
On today’s NRFL update, they say mCRC has about 10% more cases in china than gastric…..sp the opportunity for GC will depend on the subset Elunate targets….and a similar size to CRC.
the trial enrolment is for a 2025 NDA submission.,,,data likely early 2025, 65k Chinese patients pa,
The innovent update indicated that new treatments need to be added to NRDL…but presumable this is quicker for a drug already on the list
For Gastric cancer incidence See p19 of the corporate presentation…..it is the 5th most common cancer 1.09m new cases globally and 478k in china, 140k in Japan (they dont suggest numbers outside Asia which is 60% of cases)….that will be divided into the various drivers of the disease….but I would say these numbers suggest a bigger opportunity than mCRC overall and one that Takeda is likely to take forward..
In the US market, JXN is seen as a low market cap and would be a bite sized acquisition……yet in the UK it would be knocking on the door of the FTSE100.
If it goes back to $40 I will buy some more…..otherwise just holding.
It really does seem that Pru was screwed by the US regulators when they could not extract the $1bn they expected to in capital…..and which is now being drip fed back to US shareholders.
There are now about 80m shares in issue. On the float it was near 100m.
The value of the business has not changed as much as the share price would suggest….but we do own quite a bit more of it than we did.
There must be a practical limit to buy back activity….unless it becomes an easy trade…buy in the market sell to the BB programme at a nearly guaranteed premium,
And on the dividend policy….I would only expect them to raise the dividend annually, so the declaration in Feb/Mar is the one to watch.
Have not seen any dates for Europe and Japan…..they could be a standard year from submission….US had given priority review.
The next Fruq news may well be approval of the Gastric Cancer sNDA, if that is a year it should be April 24.
I assume this second indication gets immediate benefit from the NRDL already applying to Elunate which will certainly assist with take up.
I got all excited when I read they were divesting some of their non-pharma business…..thought it might be the $1bn value release some attribute to the JVs…but that was not to be.
A mere $5m which is only a few days expenses.
Another takeover of a £1bn entity on the UK markets….it it sad in some ways, but a decent price has been paid.
IMO This has been a deal waiting to happen once the Directors realised the market did not really understand them….this asset rich but cash hungry company needs feeding so the PE guys will be able to issue lots of private credit backed by the installed asset base to their other funds.
This is going to rise slowly towards the deal price….now only 1% off. Think I will sell, but what to buy…..I can get 250 CVSG for each 100 DPH, still veterinary and currently suppressed by CMA enquiry, or just stick it in a Tech fund?
What are others doing?
If that pricing value proves to hold,HCM will receive as a royalty more than 2x the revenue per customer in US as in China..and it is all profit ex-china,
It is somewhat surprising there is not a huge black market in the US…
Obv the HKD should be 30, not 60 - that was the peak value immediately after the HK equity raise - which with the benefit of hindsight has proven to be the right size.
Important statements from Mr To recently that no further funding is needed - the only dilution is from executive and employee share schemes.
It will be interesting to find out in 2026 what their plans for excess capital are. Will they commence dividend payments? Do buy backs? Or invest in the business (like their plans for a new HK research base - or spend more on the pipeline)……
On 22 April 2009, the then Chancellor Alistair Darling announced in the 2009 Budget statement that starting in April 2010, those with annual incomes over £100,000 would see their Personal allowance reduced by £1 for every £2 until it reduced to zero.
One of many poor decisions, a politically driven tax change that acts as a serious disincentive to earn more….
Strange that Tory chancellors have not had the guts to change this arbitrary rule…..which now catches more people every year. I would have just started the 50p tax band at 100k….much fairer and less of a disincentive.
Why would it move when it is simply in line with expectations..ie no nasty surprises.
The SP was cratered by the CMA and probably the economic outlook which again seems to be in line with expectations or even a bit ahead.
The market often seems to over react to CMA reviews which turn out to have limited impact…..my guess is that this will rise 20% when the CMA result is known…..IMO there are likely to be increase price disclosures to customers and some undertakings not to load prices of on-premises sales of medicines, there should be greater clarity about the level of local competition that has to be maintained…..I would bet that most people use the nearest Vet and few choose based on price. It is private healthcare after all and the vets can charge more or less what they want to.
A bit more admin, a few forced disposals……not much to get too excited about…and to compensate - then divert some growth investment where it has more effect (eg Australia).
Anyone care to put the downside case?