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Could be shorters are increasing again. JP Morgan was active on 13th. Barclays have actually downgraded share. Before they just changed price target. I wonder what news led to this?
Nervous times for IQE shareholders. Talk on ADVFN of Apple funding another supplier (Named in another post below.). Could Apple walk away from IQE? Or is this for something else.
My guess is Invesco is now reducing again after the auction has settled prices down a bit. Volumes have been increasing recently. If they were happy to sell below 60p why not at 65-70p? They are still biggest shareholder here.
That is the issue. The reason revenue is so low is they lost 2 big customers and reduced orders elsewhere. Which is why Edison suggest they need to secure new customers to make up for these. It's a nice marketing document and IQE do have a lot of good IP rights. Question is can they turn these into new large contracts. Will customers go elsewhere for products? Can they go elsewhere or do IQE offer the only solution on techs like face recognition? If not I can see their margins being squeezed.
JP Morgan increased their short on 13/01/2020 to 0.85%.
Most funds seem to be sitting and waiting for the results. Same for the shorters. Will the results be as expected? As for all this Apple chat. Their was rumours before that Apple had increased sales of certain products by 10%. Had no real impact on IQE.
Wait and see. I think 48-50p is about fair value till they can show that things are turning around. Hopefully things have reached rock bottom in terms of revenue.
IQE are well placed with production facilities in most continents. Untill they are at full capacity they will continue to scrap to a profit. 3m estimated for 2020. I am guessing this estimate includes some new contracts as they predict revenue 13m higher for 2020.
This feels like an interim report while IQE wait for some news to publish. E.g New contracts or new technologies. If
Advertising is a funny thing. Just by searching on google you can end up with adverts for a certain company.
The jobs page on IQE website shows no current vacancies anywhere in Europe, US or Asia. I would expect some jobs if production was increasing. It could be they are simply not advertising them on their website. The Welsh production site previously did.
Right now share price is where it was in 2016 before the big surge took place. Except debt is likely higher and they are now making a loss. Have to see where this goes. It needs some big news to push it higher. An update on the major shareholders page would be good. Nearly 6 months old.
Pound is still 1.31 vs dollar. I don't see it falling any time soon.
How many new orders do they need to get back to 20m profit? They would need to be big enough to make up for the 2 big lost customers. Next major news is likely 24th March for full year results. Hopefully get some production or new technology news before then. TU is unlikely unless they are missing forecasts.
Volumes of 1-2m seems to be daily norm here. Funds very quiet. Just like shorts. This share has not had the election surge others had.
Looked to be an existing holding. Hvivo has been taken over and offer price 3p above existing price. Albeit half what it was in Jan 2019. I assume they will issue shares in the new company. Unless IPO took cash.
Lost your nerve Majorboy? You were really positive when it rose. Like you say there is no news and won't be till they have year end figures. Unless they are announcing a new process or clients. With rise of the pound that could mean bad currency news. If you made profit then that is a good thing.
They don't appear to do 2 trading statements around new year. Pre close/ closing. They have already given an indication for the new year. I think any update would mean bad news. So no news may be good news? We had an update 4 weeks ago.
T R Price have been increasing generally for a while now. 02/05/2018 they had around 14% once you take account of loaned out shares. Now around 18%. Which suggests they have been reducing their average/ buying up the sold stock from other holders. I wonder at what point they will stop? 20%? They must see something here but their past record is not great. (Buying on a continually falling SP.)
50p is where the cheapest Broker rated this share. I doubt it would reach 70 without some big news. On a share like this you have to take profits at the peaks. I still wonder if Invesco could reduce here at some point.
Really not that much going on here. Most chat about the share price. Which ultimately proves nothing as we know shorts are still heavily involved here.
Stronger pound could mean better value for funds based in US. More pounds converted back to Dollars. Pound has soared since Boris took office. Not sure what the shift in currency means for profits. Money converted back to Pounds would be worth less? They are based in so many countires so it's hard to say. Exports from Wales will cost customers more now. No doubt we will get an update in new year.
Actually if they have more firms like Autifony Therapeutics Ltd in their portfolio then maybe IPO could take off at some point. They do have stakes in 30-40 firms.
Not sure if Invesco just wanted to go below 20% or are reducing still. I think they want to increase their cash position as investors could be demanding money back. They are in some trouble I think. Share price has been staying above 60p here.
At present value the other holdings need to be worth 390m to match the 60p share price. So could still be fair value even at these prices. I don't have time to dig into the accounts of every firm. Even then I don't know their 2019 performance.
Sounds like you are taking some big losses here.
Since start of year,
Xeros down 95%. Lost 19p. Now at 1p. Was 10p in June
MWG Down 85%. - 8p to 1.2p. 4p or so in June.
TRX Down 80% 6.5p-1.1p
There must be value in these other firms as IP Group rated their portfolio worth 1.1bn. Where does that other 800m come from? I fail to see it. Private firms must be doing okay. These 1p shares will struggle to recover. MWG had divisions which were close to going under.
Seems to have been some very risky investments here which simply have not paid off.
https://www.ipgroupplc.com/our-portfolio/portfolio
They list their top 20 portfolio companies by value.
Yoyo Wallets lost 4.1m on year albeit revenue up 120% to 3.6m. They have about 10m in cash.
Wave Optics lost 10m in 2018. They have just done a fund raise. I hope they have a plan. Turnover 1.3m.
Actual experience down 50% on year now 110p.
Autifony Therapeutics Ltd - Seems to of done well in 2018 with profits of 16m. Revenue 22 compared to 600k last year.
Cell Medica Ltd - Revenue not great and seems to be losing money.
Problem with these above is that the accounts don't show how 2019 is going. Only year end 2018. You can look up each Beta Company results online using a search engine. There are 16 or so other firms I could look through in the top 20. Plus many many more outside this. People in the industry would know better.
Interestingly they put a value on their stake of 274m. It's not a huge rise today. Share does seem to be edging higher.
The rest of their PLC shares you can search on here are doing terrible. Apart from Ceres and one other that is marginally higher than it was in August, Many are down 50-90% on the year. Question is are their other investments making up for these losses? On paper their assets are supposedly worth just over 1bn. So in effect they are at a 40% discount. If they tried to sell some of these the shares might collapse. Others could be almost worthless.
It almost feels like everything depends on this one company. Least there is some value here. Be interesting to see the full figures next year. They won't look pretty as they have taken some losses this year on their smaller investments.
There is always another seller. Why would someone buy at 40p and sell 1-2 weeks later. Funds don't work like that. The big shorters here have held for 2-3 years now. Some funds sell after x years. Other funds have gradually been clearing.
According to Morningstar Invesco Oppenheimer Intl Dvrs sold 9.7m IQE shares. They still appear to have 140m in their 2 other funds.
Miton Asset Management Limited sold 12m shares here. Along with Legal and General and Henderson. Very unclear when these funds sold.
Seems to me a lot of funds under 3% buying and selling. With the likes of Schroder and T Rowe Price/ Kuwait Investment picking up the slack.
Not been any real news since 19th November. So market forces are currently determining the share price. Let's see where it settles. I can't see this maintaining volumes much above 2m. Even today volumes were only 1m. For a share supposedly under valued that is pretty low volume.
This falls in line with my thoughts. Also a large number of shares returned to T Rowe Price. Would this influence the share price too? Not sure if these trades appears on the open market.
Still risk here as the share price is still adjusting. We have little idea on who is actually buying or selling here. Don't buy just based on the share price. Be interesting if a new shareholder above 3% is revealed. Must be quite a few funds still under 3%.
My read on this is a major shareholder has reduced down over last 4-5 days. Once the big seller clears the Sp usually recovers. Happened to IPO group recently. See what happens tomorrow and if the seller is done. Doubt it is shorters. Too much volume.
Might take a few weeks for the share to settle but volumes of 7-8m seems 5-6m higher than usual.
Yes you needs real guts here to average down. Shorts are still increasing. ( None today.)
There is no short term good news here. Before this was a safe share as they were making a reasonable profit. It's now a loss making firm for next year or so.
Suggestion on ADVFN is they lost 2 big companies as clients hence wireless nose diving in terms of revenue. Like most companies they don't announce the customers they lose. 30m is a fifth of their revenue.
Well 0.1% is them borrowing about 770k of shares. Which is a sell.
You can't rely on bounces here as shorters are heavily involved. They can manipulate any rises here. Right now this share is not worth 60p. Shorters will see it falls below 40p. I have no idea about Intu.
Why should it rise to 60p? I would not rely on paid for broker reports. 60p would require a big influx of orders. From what they have said it takes months for a customer to qualify and reach full product. 6+ months? Longer? So they either need a big shift in orders from existing customers or new customers. This will take 12+ months.
My gut is the Welsh site is in trouble. They are spending 13m a year on research. That needs to be paid for by orders.
It's worthwhile reading Edison report again. The PDF shows price of 46p? Or was that price at time of writing report?
The major issue I see is Wireless. Down from 90m in 2018 to 60m in 2019. That is down 33%. With photonics taking about half that slack. They really need these new customers soon.
Their predictions show wireless flat at 60m for 2020. So wireless is not likely to recover any time soon. Wireless was a huge chunk of their revenue.