Andrada Mining acquisition elevates the miner to emerging mid-tier status. Watch the video here.
But all these things were known at ipo and by the best of the best in terms of worldwide tbh investors
All we are missing are a few tracker funds the who’s who of tech investors are or have been invested. The move to main market won’t make a difference
Forex isn’t a tailwind. The main forex pain was the japenses yen which has only got worse
2phevs is adding 20k shares on a 1p movement?
Well done on that. I was late to adding but got 464 this morning as it seems to flying up on hardly any volume
I think who ever the seller was is done and we are back to normal
They have had these sites since the IPO pretty much. They aren’t new
Oke you've mixed up GMV and revenue for ingenuity. The nutrition and beauty revenues pass over ingenuity as GMV and ingenuity would take c.4% of that as revenue
So to correct your analysis take 4% of revenue off each of your respective nutrition and beauty revenues and that’s ingenuity revenues
Ingenuity should be 60% ebitda margin but only when it scales to capacity. Atm it’s loss making
Let me know how the numbers work out and hope this helps
If you sell nutrition and then have two divisions which aren’t profitable how long does that last?
What do we all “like” here? This website just highlights the continued flop of ingenuity not that it’s progressing
I plan to top up but think I will now wait for the next inflation update. The last set of figures were positive but we had a very hawkish response (which I think is now over done)
What I was concerned about was the trade receivables note in the annual accounts but the half year figures don't show a huge ballooning debtor position
Yes MyProtein is sold in China and of the very little Black Friday data I could find on linkedin this year the China posts were positive
Sorry been MIA just hasn’t been much to say about THG really
Saw an interesting thing that when you watch Australian love island MyProtein is in the back of shot
I’m actually thinking of cutting my exposure here and moving to JD. Won’t sell entirely but it’s my current thinking
Big job cuts needed here. It’s the only way at this moment
“ Typically you would judge a brand launch or purchase over three to five years, you know the first 18 months are likely to be loss making. That's just standard business development/marketing.”
Didn’t you judge Missguided on one week of being paused for new orders by administrators (even though same happened to Debs and Arcadia brands)?
With the Wellingborough DC it’s exactly what I said about the US site. It will take sales from the fixed cost U.K. assets. You need sufficient GMV to make them profitable so this move is just shifting GMV back to a centre which 1) has a lower GMV from lower sales and 2) will lose move when US opens
Was originally envisioned that Wellingborough would have 1,000 staff so at 400 it clearly never scaled. Also it was included in managements statement of total GMV possible so the “temporary” narrative is just rubbish tbh
Not finishing in the red
Hopefully a bottom now. Good inflation figures and then a view from BOE that forecast terminal rates are too high on Thursday will be the buy signal
At a EV/EBITDA multiple below 7x this is now too cheap (once certainty of interest rates is known). Fully expect PE to be circling now (this would fit well with HG's portfolio - tech and compliance - they own Ideagen and Citation)
Can you share the Cenkos note
Thanks
But we do know the organic contribution don't we from the way they do the organic calc (on thing I do like about Marlowe is they are open as to how they do the calculations)
Any current year acquisitions are added in £ for £ into the PY. Therefore the delta to CY is organic growth. Appreciate that is by cohort of year but you know the b/fwd rump of businesses have grown
I agree on your point re the discount from debt. I can't to managements £40m of FCF at all. As far as I can see after tax, capex, interest and deferred consideration there is at most £25m but possibly as low as £15m
On SONIA my plan is sit tight until BOE meeting on 15th and data on 14th. If that shows inflation slowing then I think that is the signal
Hopefully it is. With £ stronger, oil falling and easing supply chains we could see the end of the rampant growth but it's a shame to see >£15m leave the business in interest over next 18 months just in interest
I still think PE will be looking here. Marlowe is their type of target
No new case studies just talking about the same ones over and over
Sorry contingent consideration also needs deducting. But just adds to how much this business needs to pause M&A as even though it's spent a lot of cash (PY and H1) some spending still o/s
Nice to have someone to chat to!
I think the net debt was all acquisitions. FCF has been minimal as restructing costs, capex and interest have accelerated. But I think it's worth pointing out that the software acquisitions were are much higher multiple than TIC and therefore that's why the business is in it's current pickle with debt increasing
Ultimately those assets combined with TIC should pay dividends but it's cost a lot of cash to buy them vs continuing to buy TIC bolt ons at 5 - 7x
I agree with you re cash use next year and I tried to ask this on the presentation. When they refer to £10m interest cost next year this is stated as debt will fall but I agree with you I'd like to know what the planned spend on M&A is
I can see between £24m to £34m of FCF, after £7m exceptional items, for next year. I'd like all of that to go to repaying debt. I see no need for deals atm as we have plenty of new products to x-sell and PE seem to have stepped away from the market so there is no rush
I use EV/ EBITDA and this business is cheap as chips at <7x. I think until markets get confirmation on where interest rates will go then no one is buying anything
My thought is wait for the macro data on 14th and 15th. If interest rates will peak at 4%ish then Marlowe is more than safe and ultimately smaller competitor will fall away allowing greater organic market share (which they have seen in fire and water)
Just needs 18 months of cash generation now. X-sell and integration. Then I think this is a PE target all day long
The exceptions will be £8m in H2 and then another £7m in the next financial year if no more M&A
This business really just needs 12 months of cash generation. Fuelling more M&A from debt in this environment isn't sensible
But seems today made no difference and the share price is down. It seems funds just don't want to enter. Does that reflect Marlowe or the market? I do think it's the market (for now)