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We will need a thought on funding in c.12-18months so a lot quicker than some might be thinking. I would say that this is also based on IF THG wants to grow
The need for cash will depend on the trading in the next 12 months. If beauty continues to get crushed then it might come round quite quickly
When you look at the EBITDA numbers quoted c.£20m of the missing EBITDA comes from beauty missing Q4 sales targets (yoy not even growth) of £40m!
Beauty got spanked over Christmas
DG I think the miss to THG’s strategy is not having an SME offer (this is what dotable was supposed to be)
When you look at young fast growing brands (grass routes businesses and these are Manchester examples so right on THGs front door - Mars the Label and Refy). These brands both have shopify websites but they both run their own warehouse. Every peak period the respective owner will post videos of warehouse (and they are warehouses not just a front room) and they are a mess. A serious mess. And there will be loads of manual workers running round
For me that’s the gap for ingenuity. An SME offer (which is like shopifys basic product) but you can quickly take their warehousing and fulfilment. This is exactly what shopify can’t do
So brands on shopify as constantly left on a limb with regards to the physical side. Businesses like Wincanton or Clipper are now stepping in that gap (not quite but Wincanton won the Neals Yard fulfilment contract that THG lost)
Also the great thing about SME offer is these business grow with you rather than trying to pull them off a platform which you will hardly ever do
In the long run your more likely to have an end-to-end solution for SMEs as well as as they grow it’s easier to “plug in” elements of ingenuity than expensive headcount plus international (which Mars and refy are terrible at)
But I think the obsession with needing cash and whales means this won’t happen now (hence dotable died)
Factory gate numbers out today were also lower than expected
I agree I think the markets will lift in the next boe meeting even if a 0.5% lift as I hope tones will be dovish
Even better would be a 0.25% increase
Moulding hasn’t pulled off the last three iterations of ingenuity. Why is this time different?
DG the answer is that they went and got £800m at the ipo for ingenuity roll out. That “dream” is what they sold
Clearly they are “running the numbers” as what ingenuity “is” and “who it’s targeting” has chnaged more times than I can keep count
First there was “elysium” and then “imagination”. Then that was followed with “dotable”. Question does anyone here remember those?
Then it was enterprise scale clients and taking businesses international through an end-to-end solution and the key KPI is “no of sites”
Now that’s changed and it’s whales, number of sites has been ditched and we are no longer targeting enterprise clients. Also now it’s about selling doffer g products vs the end-to-end solution
DG tell me if you think I’m wrong or that that doesn’t show they aren’t “running the numbers”
You can’t compare THG to shopify anymore. Shopify is growing (revenue and customers) and covers the whole range of clients
What does Ingenuity do? And who are its clients? What does THG do for its clients now?
With the whey price falling I stand by my comments in the last few weeks. This is a nutrition business and should focus on that. Beauty is getting smashed and ingenuity is a money hole
MyProtein is your best way back to £’s here
2phevs I don’t understand your answer. Just say it clearly how is it you notice sites
LD, I was ill for a period and had a family event
I share news. Good and bad. Just good stuff never gets attention and bad stuff gets a huge response. But that’s a sign of investors and not emotional attachment
2phevs if Forever21 went unnoticed then where is it you are “noticing” sites/ clients?
It's a huge global brand oke. The point is if that built back the THG would get 4% of every £ that goes though a 100% online shop
Forever 21 is literally a perfect client for THG. It's a US brand that wants to be international and we set that up. At it's peak it was $4 BILLION in sales
If THG could get that to £100m in UK that would have been great. What whales are you expecting if that isn't a great chance?
Oke what do you mean "small clients" forever 21 were huge! They were at one point the largest fast fahikon business in the USA
2phevs my post wasn't "careless" as it was a question. It might have been that I triggered a cookie for the US site and therefore couldn't access the UK site. What last night was a statement?
Sorry from now on do I have to search all 500 pages of tabs before asking a question? What an idiot
As I said you can't be invested. To be wrong on so much and so consistently. Well done though I think you've fooled a few here that you are invested
But how about be a man for once and rather than a back handed apology you say. "hey, I was d*ck (again), and got it wrong. Sorry for attacking you Goldenyears. I'm not sure why I'm such a bully on an online chat board"
2phevs there is always real information. As I’m not you, im not just chancing what I say. But what “real” information am I suppose to provide for a site that has disappeared?
How do you show something that’s not there?
But are you never humbled? Or tbh I think people need to decide if you’re actually invested. I stand by my point that no one knows a business this poorly and actually invests in it
You have to be a parody account?
Also here’s a link to forever 21 U.K. Instagram. First post welcomes you to their new site in Mar-22 which is the same date the THG employee references it going live
https://www.instagram.com/tv/Ca2bWweFuCo/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=
2phevs. How do you come back from 4-0 down?
Oh no 2phevs. We are going 4 - 0 now
Your ability to show how poor an investor you are is mad. You have to question if you own shares here as no one owns shares but knows their investment this poorly. It can’t be true?
That’s an old article and THG actually won the work in the end. I know this as I’ve been on the site (as I’ve said in the past I monitor the sites)
But don’t take it from me take it from the THG employee who launched the site 11 months ago!
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6905282530703212544?updateEntityUrn=urn%3Ali%3Afs_feedUpdate%3A%28V2%2Curn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A6905282530703212544%29
You’ll also see Forever 21 reference in the Q1 2021 update
https://dl8hes3yo0qpy.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/06095613/THG-Annual-Report.pdf
And here’s a third party telling you forever 21 was a partner
https://www.retail-week.com/prospect/the-hut-group/the-hut-group-strategy/7038025.supplierarticle?authent=1
I hope this helps but THG won the site off global-e and now it appears to have gone
Can anyone access the U.K. site (was ran by Ingenuity) or is this gone?
Thanks
Agree Steve. You only have to look back a few days and everyone rock solid over Bank of America having a “buy”
Numis is an “investment bank” it’s not like Nationwide. They have different services which can conflict with each other as they are independent
Book running and corporate finance (related to the ipo) is a complete different team to the opinions of the research analysts. Most often it’s a separate floor or blocked off parts of an office
To give this “bank” their due they were first out of the gate to put a sell
But as an investment bank I do rate Numis. You can of course have your view on their analysts opinion
T4G you clearly don't understand cash flow as apparently boohoo handed over £18m for a court case before they even knew the outcome!
Please explain your concept of cash in relation to the court cash
Also where is the similarweb reconciliation?
“ but I can see what he’s building and it takes time!”
What has THG built for the £2billion of public markets money which it has had?
I don’t think hostile or unsolicited actually changes the point of my post in any event. Iain McDonald who is supposed to be looking out for us (we employ him) went and pulled together a bid which wasn’t to the knowledge or permission of the board (until presented)
And now still has his job. If Matt cares so much for THG and is so deeply invested and concerned with long term you not think he’d be ****ed with not being included in that deal?
Ffo it was unsolicited which means it was not invited. That’s a hostile attempt
Of course it goes to board and shareholders where else you think a bid goes? Even in a hostile takeover you need the votes
Canary funny enough I was chatting to a friend yesterday about a position in shopify. I’ve never traded us stocks before however