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A “deal” have you not read what the partnership is about? And as I said Autostore have been a partner for 2 years! You did know that right?
Any new offering with a partner is a new “deal” in the same way walking into a shop and buying a twix is technically a “deal”
It doesn’t mean that it’s a whale in any sense which is what you got all excited about and blew your load all over the floor about
Also it’s not a “whale” as it’s a partnership extension and not a customer
THG have been a “partner” of Autostore since the SoftBank deal. Although Autostore always referred to them as “customer”
This is not new it’s just an extension of a partnership that already exist (which tbh was a flop - does any remember FIR/ST which has been silence since?)
Always good to see more happening though and hopefully Autostore can push some custoemrs to THG (they have Puma for example)
4% GMV is the pricing for full end to end ingenuity commerce. This makes an EBITDA margin of 60% (so we are told) so that 2.4%
So the assumption is that if it’s just shifting GMV it’s not the 4% as the commerce is the more value add element. Also margin is lower
Just moving GMV make the business not much different to Wincanton (exclude the lorry part)
Doing the whole end to end bit was the game changer but it’s been a flop
How have you got on?
My hope is that the 18x KKR paid for Citation drives some interest from PE here
Pearls is an idiot
And digital is a whale - dumbass
Also on this whale thing. I really think we all need to relax. Shifting GMV (and not the full commerce offering) is low margin. THG used to charge NOTHING for this in the past (0% margin)
So just adding GMV makes you no different to Wincanton (except not doing the lorry but). Wincanton even have robots that pick the items etc
Matalans online is will likely be part of this billion as well but no one seems to have had lightbulb yet!
What I find so odd is that Matt is sharing these stories as though they are good. I get it's a nice story but this business is trying to go to the next level. This guy is now Group Experience Officer. You'd think by now the business has outgrown this person
Also when you look at the big tech players they never rest of this type of area. Always refreshing and amending. We have had the same guy in post and he's never seen it a different way
This is the issue with THG. Too many staff who likely are overly loyal to MM and how things were done. Needs a shake up and this is a great example
licker and pearl everything you are saying WAS correct but the clients never came.
Look at the latest RNS large clients are looking at software solutions. No one is taking the end-to-end commerce solution. It is this solution which is the 60% EBITDA margin (once scaled with clients which it hasn't)
The clients haven't come. The "potential" never came
The point about barriers to entry is mute. A D2C company can now get a solution from a third party ie Shopify. The days of needing to build your own (THG, ASOS, NEXT etc) is over. Look how easy Neals Yard left. Shopify website and fulfilment moved to Wincanton (who also have the efficiency of robots)
People confuse the "moat" part. But Ingenuity has been blown out of the water by Shopify. That's the reality
I would like management to look at selling the business. £10 a share (c.£1billion) would get you the business. When FY24 is out of the way the business could throw off c.£40m of cash annually
The debt is an issue due to interest costs but not leverage. Citation has a 11x leverage allowance!
Pearls what is it you think is special or unique about ingenuity?
The answer is not much. What is different to Asos or Sephora online now?
Lookfantastic grew as it was first moved to online and solely online. It was so much cheaper than anywhere else
MyProtein again is it brand power and first mover?
What are you saying is uniquely because of ingenuity and if ingenuity is so great 1) why don’t they sign up client when shopify get them hand over fist and 2) why is churn so high?
Ingenuity is just an infrastructure to sell online. It’s only a few months before the ipo they ever planned to sell it to third parties. What you’re quoting is the sales tag line. It’s obviously not true and no one hooked on!
Oke it was a “bonus” as such it was an equity option which was condition on capital targets. These schemes can be CGT such as sweet equity structures
I know I’ve been given my fair share over the years
Rollover relief
What do you think?
2phevs has been on the button? Are you having a laugh
Like the THG partnership with Gordan Ramsey! Ha
He’s a parody account
Matts a nugget and yet you wrote this?
I bet you can’t figure out what’s wrong in the below can you?
The same City Spy who at 7:13am of the last update declared it a "great update"
Apparently a former city guy and he came to that conclusion
I’ve worked with John. He’s a broker not an investor that’s for sure
The £1bln likely includes Matalan
I’ll have a proper think about this later but my main issue comes with assuming revenue growth. Beauty went backwards by about £40m vs PY which from memory was a 10% (might need to double check) fall in sales
To assume growth for beauty next year I think is very brave. I’d model the 10% decline as a baseline
Nutrition will gain in margin but we know has lost market share. And as the price falls so will the MP selling price which means revenue will look to go backwards (unless volumes rise which of course we hope) but in reality we know this is partly optics as we should make more margin at the lower prices
I’d model beauty at a 45% GM and then look at GM in 2020 and see what that would show nutrition
Just my quick thoughts
Pearls and tuan. If you don’t understand an EV to Equity bridge I’d suggest not buying anymore shares until you do