The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with multi-award-winning fund manager and international bestselling author Lee Freeman-Shor has just been released. Listen here.
Beach & Banbury,
When I worked at Saga, the cruise price model was very carefully architected such that the highest discounts - per cabin grade in the case of ocean cruising - were always offered earliest. As each discount percentage slice, per cabin grade, is sold the next lowest becomes the headline price per cabin grade and so on. Thereby late offers of 30% or 35% off never impact the earlier bookings. Simple, but elegant.
So the Price Promise rarely comes into effect as time moves on as the discounted offers taper off as availability decreases.
This enables a relatively sophisticated yield management model to be maintained.
On the very odd occasion - and we have seen several exceptional events recently - the baseline rate may need adjusting and it is only in these very rare circumstances that the SPP results in discounts being applied to previously fully paid and not yet departed bookings.
It's a relatively unusual occurrence from my recollection.
Update August 10, 2021
International cruising update.
We are pleased to confirm that Spirit of Adventure will embark on her first international cruise on August 29, with Spirit of Discovery following her on September 02, 2021. We are in discussion with each of the destinations on the planned itineraries to understand their current entry requirements and the implications of any local coronavirus restrictions. We expect to be able to provide you with further details for both cruises by Wednesday August 18, and will then work through later departures in date order.
Banbury,
My unreserved apologies - I clearly misread your post a few days back.
I don't have as much time to read through everything these days.
I wish you well with both Cairn and Saga.
My abject apologies once again,
FJ
So you have obviously sold.
I suspect that may be a mistake going forward my friend. From here at least.
Cairn has had a great run but ultimately it will be seen as a company holding stranded assets as the world turns its back on fossil fuels.
Just look at the news today.
But good luck in the short term as the returns have been amazing so far.
Long term, as any fossil fuel energy company, it will be utterly worthless. I hate to say that as a 20 year energy sector veteran - and a Daniel Yergin devotee - but that will be true.
Good luck but I will retain my Saga focus.
Https://www.mirror.co.uk/travel/cruises/saga-restart-international-cruises-uk-24668188
Saga to restart international cruises from UK for the first time since March 2020
Saga has confirmed plans to restart international cruises for the first time since March 2020 as restrictions for Brits in England lift
Saga Cruises has confirmed plans to resume international cruise holidays from the UK for the first time since March 2020.
The cruise line has revealed it will resume sailings in October onboard Spirit of Adventure, which will mark the first time in 19 months that the brand will offer cruise holidays abroad.
Spirit of Adventure will sail on October 5 on a five-day cruise around Rotterdam, Amsterdam and Zeebrugge, with prices from £1,156 per person. ( You can find out more here ).
This will be followed by Spirit of Discovery sailing on October 24 on a bumper 22-night trip which includes the likes of Hvar, Split, Venice, Valetta, Kotor and Minorca, with prices from £6,299 per person. ( You can find out more here ).
Currently, Saga is offering a number of sailings around the UK onboard Spirit of Adventure and Spirit of Discovery, with itineraries throughout August.
It's worth noting that in order to board any of Saga's cruises, guests will need to be fully vaccinated against Covid-19.
The company says that guests whose Saga Cruises were cancelled due to Covid were proactively offered the option to rebook on to other cruises before these went on general sale.
The news of Saga's planned international restart comes as the Foreign Office has lifted its ban on cruises abroad for the first time since March 2020.
From today (August 2) it no longer advises against cruise ship travel abroad from England, although the Foreign Office advice does explain the risks involved when booking a cruise holiday during the pandemic.
The news came as a relief to both the industry and holidaymakers.
Earlier this year, restrictions were lifted to allow for domestic cruises from England. This has seen a number of cruise lines offering UK sailings this summer, including the likes of Disney Cruise Line, Royal Caribbean and P&O Cruises.
The restart of domestic cruises was also a key factor in determining whether international cruises would be able to resume.
The Department of Transport said that the decision to allow international cruises to resume came "following the close monitoring of epidemiological evidence, gained through the restart of the domestic cruise industry earlier this year".
Andy Harmer, Managing Director at Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA) for UK & Ireland, said in a statement at the time of the announcement: "The decision to allow the restart of international cruise is very good news for the industry. This success of this summer's round Britain cruises has led the way.
That is MASSIVE news. 600p within 2 months.
This from the BBC just now.
Https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58006163
International cruises from England to restart
International cruises will be able to start again from England from Monday 2 August after a 16-month break.
People arriving at UK ports who have been fully vaccinated in the US and the EU will also not have to quarantine, the UK government said.
It's part of a plan to relax isolation rules for US and EU arrivals in the UK.
An industry body said travel agencies, hotels, tour guides, port operators and other firms would benefit from cruises restarting.
Domestic cruises have been allowed to run from May but international cruises have been prohibited.
The government said that international cruise travel advice "will be amended to encourage travellers to understand the risks associated with cruise travel and take personal responsibility for their own safety abroad".
Under the new rules, from 04:00 BST on Monday 2 August, fully vaccinated US and EU travellers arriving from amber countries will not need to quarantine or take a test on day eight of their arrival.
BREAKING NEWS
Covid infections down for seventh day in succession and UK ‘could be over worst by autumn’
Reported cases across UK dropped by 1,439 to 23,511 – a decrease of 50 per cent since the same time last week
Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/27/covid-infections-seventh-day-succession/
By Sarah Knapton, SCIENCE EDITOR 27 July 2021 6:32pm
Covid infections fell for a seventh day in a row, with scientists who predicted a devastating third wave now indicating that Britain will be over the worst of the pandemic by September.
Reported cases across the UK dropped by 1,439 to 23,511 – a decrease of 50 per cent since the same time last week. The seven-day figure of 229,828 is 30.8 per cent down from the previous week, with 102,240 fewer infections reported.
The percentage of people testing positive is also falling, while vaccination rates are climbing again for the first time in more than a month.
Prof Neil Ferguson – who previously predicted a summer peak of between 100,000 and 200,000 cases – said the downturn indicated that the pandemic would be drawing to a close by the autumn.
Prof Ferguson, of Imperial College and a member of the Government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, said: "We're not completely out of the woods, but the equation has fundamentally changed. The effect of vaccines is hugely reducing the risk of hospitalisations and death.
"And I'm positive that, by late September or October time, we will be looking back at most of the pandemic. We will have Covid with us, we will still have people dying from Covid, but we'll have put the bulk of the pandemic behind us."
Scientists are unclear what is causing the dramatic fall but say it could be a combination of the school holidays, the good weather and the drop in social contact following the end of the Euro 2020 football tournament.
Commenting on the figures, Dr Alasdair Munro, a paediatric registrar at University Hospital Southampton, said: "Cases are down absolutely massively, definitely not due to less testing as test positivity is also falling. However you cut this one, it's bloody brilliant news."
This is seen by commentators as the starting gun for a full opening now that Covid cases are dropping rapidly.
Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/07/27/freedom-double-jabbed-uk-opens-world/
Freedom for double jabbed as UK opens to world
Boris Johnson to reopen country to EU and US and also drop requirements for fully vaccinated Britons to take Covid tests
By Ben Riley-Smith,
27 July 2021 9:41pm
Britain is to drop restrictions for fully vaccinated people and reopen its borders to European and American travellers from next month.
Boris Johnson has decided that, from August 16, those who have been fully vaccinated will not be required to take a test if they come into contact with someone with Covid unless they have symptoms.
It had previously been reported that workers would only be released from self-isolation after a negative test, and health officials had been planning for a major new system of compulsory testing to free people from isolating.
With Covid cases falling for a seventh successive day, Mr Johnson has also decided to reopen the country to foreign tourists from the EU and North America who have been fully vaccinated. Travel to the UK was previously only possible without quarantine from a handful of green list countries.
On Thursday afternoon, I was having a meal outside my local seafront pub and just happened to see the Spirit of Adventure sail by. It was quite emotional as I had no idea that it was about to appear. It was a sunny afternoon and the ship looked superb on the east-west route that is closest to the English side of the channel.
Then this morning, I received a mailshot celebrating the fact that the Spirit of Adventure is sailing today with passengers for the first time ever.
This is very good and well-timed targeted marketing.
There were 2 brochures - one of which was "Celebrating Spirit of Adventure's maiden season". All rather nice.
The cover letter focussed on next spring's cruises, but also offered "limited availability" left on offer for this year.
I still see 550p before the end of next month.
"Well I might regret this but in true FJGooner style I sold my last lot of Saga shares today."
Thank you for the thought. How nice.
It was great seeing our new ship launched today. That made me happy.
Saga Cruises Spirit of Adventure sails into Portsmouth in preparation for city's first naming ceremony
You will be able to watch the naming ceremony live on July 19
Https://www.hampshirelive.news/whats-on/whats-on-news/spirit-of-adventure-saga-portsmouth-5645178
Saga Cruises Spirit of Adventure has arrived in Portsmouth ahead of her prestigious naming ceremony, which will be the city's first for a new cruise ship.
Spectators caught a glimpse of the 236-metre boutique cruise ship as she sailed into Portsmouth early on Tuesday morning (July 13).
Spirit of Adventure features five speciality restaurants including the world’s first Nepalese restaurant at sea – Khukuri House, alongside Amalfi, a high-end Italian cuisine restaurant and the Supper Club a dining and live entertainment venue.
The ship has a 500 sq metre spa, The Lido outdoor pool, The Playhouse, a 444-seat theatre and a large library.
The naming ceremony will take place on Monday, July 19 with HampshireLive previously reporting that the responsibility of that task had been given to Commodore Inga Kennedy, the former head of the Royal Navy Medical Service.
You can watch the naming ceremony live from 1pm on Monday 19 July on Saga's Facebook page and Youtube channel, with registration available online below.
Https://travel.saga.co.uk/forms/spirit-of-adventure-naming-ceremony.aspx
And there we have it - travel will now start to boom once again from July 19th. As predicted yesterday.
Covid-19: Amber list quarantine for fully vaccinated (Saga customers) to end on 19 July
Https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57763173
Fully vaccinated UK residents arriving in England from amber travel list destinations will no longer have to quarantine from 19 July.
They will, however, still need to pay for PCR tests before and after their return, the transport secretary said.
Grant Shapps told MPs that under-18s returning from amber list places would also be exempt from quarantine.
Currently, anyone returning from amber or red list countries must isolate for 10 days, regardless of vaccine status.
"To be clear, a full vaccination means 14 days have passed since your final dose of the vaccine," Mr Shapps said.
He added: "In essence, this means that for fully vaccinated travellers the requirements for green and amber list countries are the same."
Tim Alderslade, chief executive of Airlines UK, the industry body representing UK-registered carriers, said the rule change was a "positive move towards the genuine reopening the sector has been looking for".
"We now urge the government to continue this momentum by adding many more countries to the green list next week and removing onerous testing requirements at its next review on 31 July," he added.
Https://travelweekly.co.uk/news/air/critical-for-travel-firms-to-rebuild-customer-trust-in-wake-of-pandemic
Travel firms have been urged to rebuild customer trust following the “seismic” impact of the pandemic on the sector.
The call came from the head of the Institute of Customer Service as new research revealed that the number of UK customers experiencing service issues has risen since this time last year.
This came despite customer satisfaction in the travel sector increasing marginally.
The July 2021 UK Customer Satisfaction Index ranked Jet2holidays as the top travel company followed by Premier Inn, Saga Holidays, Trivago and Booking.com.
Don't worry about the current share price movements.
British Airways and Virgin have started trialling fast-track lanes for fully-vaccinated arrivals.
This is being seen as a pre-cursor to Grant Shapps' upcoming update on international travel which is likely to remove the need for fully-vaccinated travellers to isolate when they return from an amber list country. The CEO of the Travel Trade Gazette was saying on BBC2 this morning that he expects the start date for this to be on the 19th July when all legal limits on social contact are removed.
So we could be within 12 days of almost all of Saga's holiday destinations being opened up for their largely double vaccinated demographic. Think about that - Saga will be a better position than any other UK travel company on that basis.
Furthermore, in 19 days' time, the inaugural cruise of Spirit of Adventure will set sail on July 26th.
From that point, Saga will have both cruise ships sailing with 100% capacity and should be taking a huge volume of tour bookings as pent-up demand is met.
Let's see what the share price is then, eh?
I'll go for 550p by the end of the first week of August.
That's right Beach.
It's great news for Saga's first purpose-built river ship, Spirit of the Rhine and for their second brand-new river ship, Spirit of the Danube, which launches next year.
All of Germany's river systems are now fully open to Saga's demographic.
Https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-57730092
Extract
Covid-19: Germany lifts ban on tourists from UK and Portugal
Germany is lifting a Covid-related travel ban on people from the UK and four other variant-hit countries.
Visitors who are fully vaccinated will also not be required to quarantine.
Non-vaccinated people will however still be required to quarantine for up to 10 days, with the option to end their quarantine early with a negative test on the fifth day.
Germany's relaxation of restrictions came a few hours after UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson confirmed the country is expecting to lift all Covid-related rules from 19 July.
The UK government is also expected to announce plans for fully-vaccinated British people to travel to "amber" countries - that is, countries designated as medium risk for Covid, including many in Europe - without having to quarantine on their return.
Great news. Even the hardest territory is now fully open to Saga's demographic.
A massive buy signal.
Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/05/heathrow-reopening-terminal-3-meet-expected-surge-demand/
Germany lifts travel ban on passengers from UK
Britain will be removed from the country's highest risk category of 'virus variant area' from Wednesday
Germany has lifted its travel ban on passengers arriving from the UK, paving the way for summer holidays to the country for those who have been double vaccinated.
Britain would be removed from the country's highest risk category of "virus variant area" from Wednesday, Germany's national disease control centre, the Robert Koch Institute, announced on Monday.
The travel ban was introduced on May 23 amid concern over the prevalence of the delta variant, preventing non-German nationals travelling to Germany from Britain.
The UK will now move into the second-highest category of "high-incidence area", meaning arrivals can avoid quarantine if they can prove that they are fully vaccinated or have recovered from Covid-19.
Those who have not received both vaccinations can cut short a mandatory 10-day quarantine by testing negative after five days.
Heathrow terminal to reopen
In a further boost for the travel industry, Heathrow is to reopen its Terminal 3 this month as Boris Johnson pledges to kickstart summer travel by unveiling plans this week for double-jabbed holidaymakers to avoid quarantine.
Https://www.forbes.com/sites/michelerobson/2021/06/28/eu-countries-tighten-restrictions-on-uk-visitors-as-merkel-demands-ban/
Extract
Last week Angela Merkel had called E.U. leaders to travelers from the U.K. should be quarantined wherever they arrive in the E.U., even if fully vaccinated. Ahead of the E.U. summit on Thursday, she said, "In our country, if you come from Great Britain, you have to go into quarantine – and that's not the case in every European country, and that's what I would like to see."
On Monday, Merkel's rhetoric strengthened when she proposed a total ban on arrivals from the U.K. across the E.U. The plans are likely to be resisted by Greece, Spain, Cyprus, Malta, and Portugal. Analysts say that the German Chancellor is looking increasingly isolated as countries reliant on U.K. tourism will not support a total ban. Even President Macron of France, previously one of Merkel's allies, has only backed mandatory quarantine for unvaccinated travelers, rather than a total ban or compulsory quarantine of all.
With the U.K. having high vaccination rates, many European countries would rather risk allowing those vaccinated to enter their countries. Given the recent trouble in Majorca with a spike in cases thought to be caused by partying teenagers on holiday, only accepting older travelers that have been vaccinated may be a beneficial strategy.