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yes agree with you on the patience, that is a separate issue for individual evaluation.
it was me who suggested a valuation could be 45p based on detail in another post :)
if you go back a few years you can probably find another post where i said DKL would be worth 30-40p in 18 months, and that was when the price was probably already 14p!
it would be a statement of fact that i am invariably incorrect in any of my valuations :)
James - I definitely understand the frustration, and I am at a significant loss having built up shares in Dekel for over 5 years!
not sure why it would go bang though? cash generative, well funded, broadly profitable and growing - there is definitely a business there - not like we are repeatedly loss making with a business nobody understands.
for me its more an issue of fact Dekel is a boring stock (non tech), in a risky area of the world, topped off with the fact that just about every external supporting variable is also against us also e.g. palmoil price and environmental concerns!
im still of the opinion DKL will come good, you can only ignore fundamentals for so long - however i have to accept fact ive been saying and thinking that for a long time now, am sitting on a hefty loss, and could of done far more with the money in a simple index tracker given the current broader bull market!!
frustrating - hell yes! going to go bang - cannot see that scenario.
Margin is supposedly (to best of my understanding) around 30% for unsorted nut processing - this would mean pbt of circa $18m/£13m on revenue of $60m
if add that to say just a small £5m of profit from Palm oil would be = £18m profit (this profit alone is circa 2.5 times the current market cap of 7m!)
on a low PE of 10 we should then at this point have a market cap of £180M - or 25x current share price = 45p!!!
I'm back in 2015 dreaming again!!!
thanks Rugs - I will do my best to get along as would be nice to meet some fellow investors and hear how AGM went.
ill message on here on the day to confirm and also time.
thanks for following up - much appreciated.
yes great results yesterday, hopefully Dekel can keep the run going and get through a full year without and unexpected tip ups (that are in their control - factors like price we cannot blame them for)
agree with one of the below contributors about the pace of expansion - if look at aspirations from 5 years ago Guitry would be well on the way now!! Guitry feels very much like a long term agenda item now (i do hope it actually happens!).
Is anyone going to the AGM? i will probably not make it but i know a few of you have previously attedned have then convened in a nearby pub afterwards? if planning on doing this again and open to others attending id possibly be able to make a beer and social debrief (any excuse to leave the office!)
I'm waiting on the Q2s Rugs.
If I can get any semblance of DKL stringing together a decent set of quarters - both production wise and in terms of positive updates on other initiatives then I am going to start buying further.
in 2017 we made a net profit of £1.6m - on basis of today's share-price our market cap is £9.5m (PE multiple of around 6.0) - our assets are in excess of £30m! (less than 0.3 of book value).
on any measure this is cheap, for a stock with growth potential is really cheap.
now I get that there is more to a story than just quoting stats like above, however we are not looking at an organisation who are struggling here - If Dekel deliver some decent quarters (hit and miss throughout 2018), negative sentiment in europe picks up a little (shockingly bad at moment) and prices improve (very low at moment) then things will change very quickly!
if we get anywhere near a 2017 performance and the above factors starts to move in our favour then a PE of 16 - 17 is still cheap (8.5p share price).
with initiatives over the past few years we should be performing well in excess of 2017 levels.
it may take a while for us to be up and above 12p+ again - however buying steadily at these levels is a fantastic opportunity - price could easily triple within a year - 18months - and then hopefully move on stringly from there with sentiment pushing us on!
in my opinion anyway - as always DYOR!
wow Lambo!! that's quite a turnaround - at the end of March you were the most positive contributor on here, discussion around seeing Dekel back above 10p and onwards to 20p - now in early May they are finished and cannot survive!!
This is all about very poor sentiment around palm oil combined with poor palm oil prices - it is a very challenging environment (Lambo you are perhaps reacting to every piece of news you hear? good qtrly figures were all millionares, Selfridges doesn't like palm oil we are going bust!)
Dekel though is not at any imminent risk of going under! prices will turnaround (is just another commodity cycle) and palm oil negative sentiment I think is completely overdone (and in my opinion very unjustified)
This for me has become a very long term hold now (tbh it always was but annoyingly I now have no option but holding for longer term now!)
I'd hold out for Q2s - if they are positive you would be expecting DKL to post a profit for the year in addition to developing the cashew project.
if we do post a decent profit for the year DKL is extremely cheap (probably a P/E of around 5!).
Even then unless sentiment and prices improve I doubt we would see much reaction in the share price - I will though at that point start buying more!
here's hoping lambo - definitely good to hear some positivity and optimism on here around DKL
its like listening to myself back in 2016!! - I think at some point that year I made a passionate justification as to why DKL could get somewhere near 36p over a 5 year period!
;) - I agree with you though, the fundamentals seem to be there
As a number of us have said a few times now - if DKL deliver a solid Q1 that is great news - however we need a consistent set of QTRS - not a good Q1 followed by an average to poor Q2, we come down way harder than we go up!
nice to see some movement up - given how often we have previously seen sells going into the production numbers this positivity is good to see (especially given how often previous 'punts' prior to numbers have turned out to be correct!)
yes agree - we need to put a really solid consistent set of quarters together!
all us LTH will know that we've never managed that in 4 years! we'll manage the odd fantastic qtr and update and then we always seem to deflate ourselves on the next qtr.
once we put a set of qtrs. together that show consistent improvement and delivery it will go up very quickly - its about this time every year I think - 'this year'!! ;)
yes I think it is a question of losing patience and the negativity around palm oil at the moment - I had my father over yesterday who asked if I still held 'the Palm Oil shares' - immediate reaction when I said yes was 'you need to get shot of them!' - he has no understanding of the market etc at all - pure perception!
personally I think the negativity is ridiculous (the deforestation in Malaysia and Indonesia needs controlling but the negativity on palm oil is misplaced) sentiment/sense will come back round - DKL in west Africa with RSPO accreditation will be very well placed.
ill just keep holding for now - still of belief it will come and last year hopefully a relatively rare poor season
H&N - I agree, I made the same observation on this board a week or two ago.
It does come across as DKL dirs establishing another venture then agreeing DKL to buy them out at a valuation decided by the same beneficiaries.
I also agree with you that if we were that interested in this venture why not do through DKL from start.
I wonder if there are other ventures that dil directors involved with that we will see this scenario again - totally agree it does not look good!