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So looks like a Japanese firm have just bought 15% of Kalahari, or 6% of Extract whichever way you want to look it at. Interesting the Japanese have moved quickly for a piece of the pie before the Koreans can submit their bid. Wonder what Rio will be making of all this, if they want Rossing South they surely need to move quick now or they risk loosing out to the Asia. Im just surprised the Chinease havent thrown their hat in yet what with all the Nucleur reactors theyve commissioned to be built and im sure sticking one up Rio would be an added bonus.
Wow that really is a massive buy, does someone know something?? Extract has drifted off a bit on no news but i wasnt expecting any yet, Korea Electric have stated they are considering their options and obtaining approval by end of the month, doubt anything will happen before then. Seems a be a fair bit of speculation that what Korea Electric are deciding is whether to table bid for just a stake or the whole Extract pie, they certainly need the Uranium reserves to meet their demands and pipeline projects. It would make sense for them, especially with Extract currently being so undervalued.
So how does it work then if Korea Electric do wish to bid for a stake in Extract? I know there has been talk that Polo may be looking to sell their stake but lets say they dont want to, then do Korea Electric have to just keep lapping up shares on the open market as the price increases untill they hit the point where they've amassed the % share they want, so lets say they just keep buying untill they hold 20% by which time the sp would be likely back up around it high of a couple of months ago when it was $11.5. Would Rio sit back and allow them to do this? Seeing as Rio already own 30% directly / indirerectly if they bought any more i believe they then have to make an outright offer dont they?? Interesting couple of months ahead.
Looks like its all starting to kick off again, interesting part of that article is that Korea Electric have already tables an offer for a stake in EXT, and they will make a full biding offer by the end of the month. Will be very interesting just how big a stake they are looking to aquire but sounds like it will be very significant. More significant is that fact that Rio who have made it known they want the resource but have been playing the 'we have all the time in the world' card may be left with little option but to make their move sooner rarther than later. Also worth noting this proposed bid got a mention on Bloomberg TV this morning, the worldwide exposure of Extract and their resouce will do no harm for the share price. Personally i think its a safe bet that it wont be long before EXT it testing its $11.50 high again, it has fallen away simply because people have got bored but if things are happening many will be back quickly who wont want to miss the opportunity. And as if all that wasnt enough the feasibility results and total resource upgrade are also due fairly soon. KAH at 185 is still dirt cheap
Uranium really is as surefire an investment as you will find at the moment. Its a shame you cant trade uranium futures like you can with other commods, i guess its not a liquid enough market though. I read an article a few weeks ago that said countries at the moment are getting by on uranium from old weapons but the supply will be gone within 3 years. You have a situation where supply is diminishing rapidly while demand it rocketing, it a dream setup. For extract the timing of scheduled production in 2012-2013 is perfect, the price of Uranium by the time production starts will be vastly higher than the figures used in the feasability studies. Im still amazed Rio havent just taken Extract by now, the longer they leave it the more its gonna cost them. They also run the risk of the Koreans or Chinease making their move. Although with Rio already owning 15% directly and another 15% indirectly they hold the aces. Extract is one share i have decided im not interested in selling, its my biggest holding now. You can be sure one day your gonna wake up and someone will have come in with a $15 offer, its only a matter of time.
Resource updates usually result in apx 6% spike in EXT, although it has fallen more than expected in the last month so maybe more upside than usual.
If true this would be very interesting and could ignite the EXT takeoff again. It would be very interesting to see how Rio would respond if another serious bidder enters the fray. Cant help feeling Rio have been biding their time but another bidder would force their hand. Once one serious bid or takeover offer comes in you cant help but feel many other parties will be scrambling to submit their offers. It may also remind Rio that the longer they wait the greater the confirmed resource at Rossing South is going to become and the more its going to cost them!!
The fall in EXT this past week is a very strange one because there has been a fair bit of positive press surrounding nucluer power. It still seems to me that the only feasible green and affordable energy source is nucleur. The amount of reactors around the world being build and getting commisioned at the moment is huge, not just in china but also in india and with most developed countried upgrading and expanding their dependance and commitment to nuclear as a major power souce. The spot price of uranium is almost certain to soar in the coming 5-10 years as demand increases. The biggest problem for EXT and KAH at the moment is that while the development of Rossing South and in all probability Rio buying the asset is a forgone conclusion its the timescale that investors dont like. Development and mining is still 2 years away and there is a real possibility that EXT will just drift around going noweher untill then. At some point though someone is going to mount a takeover and not being in EXT/KAH is a risk of missing out, i think many investors at the moment however are using funds elsewhere to return to EXT at a later date.
It was a very pleasant surprise the way KAH has performed today what with EXT down 5% last night. Was expecting KAH to fall back to 170p today. Will be interesting to see if there is anything behind this rise. Again all comes back to EXT, need that one to break through $9 again. Got to be honest sold out at 195p this afternoon purely because the rise dosent reflect EXT and feel it may correct and offer lower buyback. Still sitting on a load of EXT & Polo shares though
Noticed that EXT and KAH are both up significantly this past week or two but EML dosent look to have moved as of yet. Potential easy money when it catches up????
Could do with another drilling update right around now from EXT just to remind the market again what spectacular assets their sitting on. Still think EXT will be testing the $11.50 high within a month or two, no logical reason why it fell from that level in the first place.
Nice move up, all will depend on what EXT does tonight i guess, with the general market sentiment around today may be promising.
At the end of the day Kah is just a Uk way of trading EXT, when EXT moves again towards A$11 this will inevitably move in tandem.
Very quiet on here lately, people still patiently holding? Ext trend starting to look interesting, dont want to jinx it but someones steadily building, just watched Ext trading on the TSE pop up another 6% so could bode very well for EXT:ASX tonight. Still feel with the big buys going through in Kah/Eml & Polo just recently things are starting to hot up again, buying pressure forming. 174p here is a great price, really temped to top up more but already have 40% of my portfolio now spread in this Rossing South Web. Confident were going to see Ext set some new highs in the coming months. True value and target price is around A$15 by common consensus which would see Kah trading around £3-£3.50 youd imagine.
Finding it interesting at the moment that the association between EXT & KAH sp's seems wider than usual. Have watched EXT fall and rise back up by around 12% this past week or so but KAH has barely moved.
Personal thing but id never buy retail shares, just dont like them, too dependant on consumer spending of which xmas aside there isnt going to be any, can only see your average man in the street getting poorer as all the tax rises and inflation start to come into play next year. Im back to focusing on my strategy of only investing in emerging market companies and trading commodities. The only times i see to loose are when i get tempted western focused rubbish. The only british or US stocks worth owning are ones whos core business activities are done abroad.
Think this article pretty much sums up why any investor needs to have some sort of uranium investment in their portfolio: http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page72103?oid=94349&sn=Detail
Uranium price now and short term is of very little relevance to KAH, production is 2 years away so all we can do is forcast the sp in 2 years time bason on demand that will be created by all the reactors around the world being built.
Cant see anything fundamentally that has changed here other than people taking profits maybe. The outlook for diamonds is still strong, Tiffanys reported record profits, diamond prices have picked up. This is a great buy at 185p, i may just wait a little longer, i remember before this retracing from 200p to 135p in the space of a week or two for no reason whatsoever then surged again. Anywhere near 150p and ill be throwing all ive got spare at this.
Pure journalist speculation so wont get too exitied but this is what we need, another party to Rio to make an offer or show a real interest and force a bidding war. Id bet there are many large compaies with EXT's assets on their 'aquisitions' list who would join the table once the bidding starts: http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/tradingdesk/archive/2009/12/09/potential-acquisitions-for-cameco-after-centerra-gold-sale.aspx