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I think you are right. The free float is very small, about 20%. Let's assume that at least half of that is in the hands of longer-term holders who have no intention of selling around these levels, then in reality it's more like 10%. So even quite modest buying interest should push up the SP quite quickly. We should get a reassuring RNS early next week re. the site being back online. But it's probably too early for them to estimate the cost of this whole fiasco, or how many customers we've lost. I can't believe the cash cost is going to be much less than £10m. Bt that would still leave the company with £35m in cash. Volume has been quite encouraging in the last week or so. About 500k most days. Only £25k, but at least there's some activity.
I don't think there's any need to worry about JF Dossin himself. He's approachable seems a likeable, respectable man. I suppose what is concerning about the camkids suspension is that the NEDs find themselves powerless to stop Chinese management behaving in a very disreputable way. At JQW we have had no indications so far of management misbehaviour. Let's hope it stays that way.
Interesting. Volume 600k by mid-morning. Looks like there's a buy order at up to 4.75. Hopefully a strong long term shareholder is replacing weaker shorter-term shareholders.
JQW seems to be holding up OK so far. There seem to be some buyers around. Hopefully only 7 more working days until we are back online.
Hi Stuartman Before the totally unexpected news of the 30-day site suspension we were definitely heading back to a valuation at cash (around 24p). I reckoned we'd hold around there for a few months, then rise slowly as investors became more confident, the company started to pay predictable dividends an the early stage investors finally exited. Unfortunately the 30-day site suspension has pushed that whole recovery process back quite a bit. We first need to get an idea of what the cash cost is, and then an indication of the impact on future advertising sales. It's quite interesting to make an analysis of future cash flows, assuming that sales resume at -10% of where they were before the site suspension . We might see total revenue of H2 2015 of about 340m RMB (assuming no charge to advertisers while we're offline). At that level the company should still be in the back, but only just. Then in 2016 we may begin to build sales again. So we might just come out of this nightmare in reasonable shape. But China is a highly competitive place, and whether it's too optimistic to assume a loss of only 10% of advertisers I just don't know.
Stuartman - this is definitely a real business. The 30-day suspension has obviously made JQW a much less predictable kind of investment. We don't know what it's going to cost and how much damage it will do. And it definitely makes a decent dividend this year much less likely. On the positive side the company has plenty of cash to see out the crisis. Hopefully in 6 months time we'll see a return to normal trading and the company can begin to re-build investor confidence.
Unfortunately no interim divi., and very little on outlook. The only reference to the suspension of trading is the last line of the Chairman's statement. Good to see £46m on the balance sheet, as expected and sales up 25%.
If the board has decided that in the light of unforeseen circumstances/unknown costs re. temporary closure of the site, etc, they are obliged to ditch the interim dividend then the share price will fall a bit further, I agree. I think most shareholders are expecting a dividend and will be annoyed of they don't get one, however exceptional the circumstances. If we get a small dividend - say 0.5p - then the share price may rally slightly. There is no way it is going to rally 300%. But it might reach the dizzy heights of 7p! It will be interesting to see what sort of guidance the company puts out re. how serious the temporary closure will be to future business and how much it is going to cost.
I agree that closing the site for a month seems an extremely harsh punishment. That's what makes me think that JQW is the victim dirty tricks by a rival business. Presumably the rival has better contacts with the regulator than JQW. The offence seems to be that one of their thousands of advertisers is promoting a pyramid-selling scheme. But it is very difficult for the publisher of a website (or of a magazine or newspaper) to be aware of exactly what their advertisers are selling. What will the cost be to JQW? Probably refunds to advertisers for 1 month, That could be about £7m. Then some loss of business to rivals. So total cost at least £10m. But even after that hit the company should still show a comfortable profit before tax in 2015. And the loss can be absorbed by the £45m or so that we expect to see on the balance sheet at the interims. So an unpleasant setback rather than a mortal blow. And perhaps the shock will tempt the chairman to sell up to a rival, which would be good for all shareholders.
There's no reason to think the accounts aren't correct. It's right to be cautious about business ethics in China, the regulatory setup etc, but the accounts are audited. Cash on the balance sheet has to be confirmed by the bank where it's held, etc.
I think this has to be dirty tricks from a jealous rival. It's the kind of political/regulatory risk you take in emerging markets like China. But it's not one I saw coming, unfortunately. At least the company has the financial resources to ride out a month offline, which will be expensive. But this is likely to limit generosity on the dividend.
What a nightmare. Such a tiny fine, but closing the website for a month is a problem. What effect is that going to have on the traffic and the future and income? But there are buyers this morning at 6.5p, and I imagine they are looking at the cash position.
But on the Thursday April 30th it crashed back to 11p! Some investors bought expecting a big dividend payout. But there was none, so they all sold out Much better to have a slow and steady rise and predictable dividends. Looks like we may have another buying opportunity this morning if the offer comes down to 10p or below.
Lots of buys going through this morning. in decent sizes and most close to the offer. But there seems to be plenty of stock available so the rise is restrained, which is good. Might keep the momentum traders away. This is probably the OMP stock that the market makers have a mandate to clear at reasonable level - a few 100k per day, depending on the strength of the market. At some point - probably a few weeks away, it will clear. The larger than normal-sized buys, some in 50k and 100k lots, suggest a more serious buyer. But this could be wishful thinking by me. At bid of 11.00 I'm right on breakeven here, which is always a good moment.
Offer back at 10p. If it comes any lower I'm going to buy a few more. Weakness is probably a mixture of Friday's momentum-traders closing and maybe the early investors taking advantage of higher volume to clear a few. Imagine there will be plenty of these moments of weakness between now and the interims in 2 weeks. But in the longer term this is going to rise and it could happen fast. The free float is so small.
There's a very interesting and reasonable piece about JQW on Motley Fool today. Well worth reading. The writer sensibly points out that JQW should be seen as a value share not a growth share. https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2015/09/04/jqw-plc-a-potential-multi-bagger-but-not-for-the-faint-hearted/
The FTSE 100 is down 130 points and JQW is up 25%. Now 10.5 to sell, 11.25 to buy. Volume almost 1,5m. And all on no news. It's amazing how these big moves just come out of the blue. But most of the buyers are short-termers looking for a momentum trade. They will dump the shares as fast as they are now snapping them up. What we really need is long term holders. Institutional ones if possible.
I'm sure they won't pay a special dividend this year. I can see they paid 5p per share this time last year and it was spectacularly unsuccessful in holding up the share price. But they will likely pay a small interim dividend. I think 0.5p (i.e. half of one pence) is quite likely. And they will probably distribute a bit more at the finals. All much, much less than the company could afford to pay, but Chinese companies like to hoard their cash.
Not surprisingly Abchurch won't give out Cai Yongde's email address, but have offered to forward a note. This will probably end up in the junk file or either Abchurch or Cai Yonge, but I have written a note and requested that it should be forwarded. This says how important it is that the NEDs (Lewis, Yap and Dossin) should buy some shares in JQW. Their apparent refusal to buy any shares sends a terrible message to the market about (a) their belief in the company and (b) its commitment to a London listing. It's also very unusual these days for NEDs to have no shares in the business. It's worth remembering that our NEDs are very well paid - they each get 486k RMB or £50k per year. If they spend only 10% of that buying 50,000 shares apiece that would send a useful message to the market. Along with an announcement of a broker and an interim divi it might get some momentum going here.
Thanks for those suggestions Rick43