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220-230p by the end of this month imho built on flaky speculation.
160p end of august when furlough starts tapering off, more redundancies/job losses nationwide, retail investors cash out their investments to pay their mortgage/rent.
80p in September/October when more people cash out to pay for other necessities as we enter the great great depression .
This is a public forum. I am entitled to share my opinion.
two-thirds of any airlines' revenue comes from passengers in first, business or premium economy class.
here's an real example of the economics of a boeing 777 EGLL -KJFK return trip
A round-trip economy class ticket costs, at the time of writing, (£708). That means that, if each of the 122 economy seats is filled, the entire back section of the plane will make the airline, round-trip, £86,466."
Comparatively, the going rate for a premium economy seat is £2,130 for a round-trip, meaning the entire cabin will make £85,210.
Already you can see that the entire 40-seat premium economy sections makes BA roughly as much as the entire economy class section
For business class, the 48 seats go for £5,439 each for a return fare, making the airline £261,087. The 14 first class seats are sold for £7,050 each or £98,713 in total.
Now, put into this scenario social distancing, the lack of demand and weak consumer confidence. A recipe for disaster
You are right, all airlines and travel companies are on the same boat. I don't understand why people are scraping the bottom of the barrels in an industry that is clearly in turmoil. By the looks of it, a lot of "investors" here are also gamblers.
georgewright. Regarding economies of scale; IAG's action in reducing it's costs are not parallel to their overall output. THE COMPANY IS SHRINKING. THE SHARE PRICE IS SHRINKING TOO! ARE YOU BLIND?!?
IAG are dysfunctional at the moment. you have 12,000 staff getting laid off. cash being burned at a high rate, big aircrafts being sold off, hardly anyone flying business and first class (which is where the heft of their income is made) a CEO stepping down becuase he doesn't want to be responsible for a company that fading away, brexit in winter with freedom of movement restrictions.. Demand will be rock bottom and negative. Better sell all your stock now before the airline is nationalised by Christmas
The facts are clear that the SP has clearly been on a downtrend for the past 3 weeks. The majority on this forum have been yapping on how Daily Mail and The Sun headlines will somehow have a miraculous effect on the Share Price. The Stock Market doesn't care about trivial events .
if the SP fails to break 275p. lets see if the SP can bounce off 163p (Fib. support level) There will be a good time to enter
The stock market going through a correction. The rallies we have seen have been built on speculation. There's also a tonne of new retail Robinhood e-toro investors buying the stocks with little to no experience which is another factor driving the rallies. For IAG, these rallies have been an abysmal. Institutional investors are staying well away from this rally, waiting for the bubble to burst.Considering the fundamentals - IAG significantly downsizing (laying off staff, writing off their fleet of large aircraft, closing the doors for Gatwick, etc.). This is a huge downscale and will have a colossal effect on revenues and in turn the intrinsic value of their shares.The stock market is normally a predictor of what's happening in the future (6-12 months time). Maybe in 6-12 months time things will be worse, the momentum of the economy will slow down as we will come to the realisation of how much economic damage the past few months have caused.Stay out of the game if you are considering buying. Wait until the storm passes.
I use Tradingview.
You might want to Google or Youtube how to use the Fibonaci retracement.
Also, you might want to read up on fibonacci sequences to have a grasp of it.
Once you get the hang of it and draw it. You will be able to see where the share price has found support and resistance.
Fundamental and Technical analysis work hand in hand. Draw a Fibonaci retracement chart that scales from the bottoms of May and the highs in February and tell me what you see.
I bought on an average of 200p and holding long.
Think realistically, use statistical tools and frameworks and apply it to the fundamentals to make the best strategy. Don't just keep your fingers crossed and hope for the best. that is called gambling.
I see the price retesting 160p support (mid may lows)
If it breaks below 160 in the next few months we may re-test 130p from May 2013.
Buy if you are in for the Long term. Sell if you are looking to make a quick buck
The price is correcting and finding it's true value. it may take months or years.