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Q3 Operations Report to end Sept-22 is now WAY overdue .... expected news on:
> gold production ... estimate 500oz/month in Q3 due to plant 1&2 upgrades
> production upgrades ... plant 1 & 2 status and timelines
> Plant 3 Heap Leach ... confirmation as 3x 15kt pads =35kt capacity and completed Q3
> Plant 4 Heap Leach ... confirmation as 2x 60kt pads =120kt and construction still WIP
> Heap Leach %recoveries for given cook-cycles ... would be nice as last was 53% for 2 weeks on Plant 3 Pilot in Mar-22
> Confirmation of end Mar-2023 target as production or capacity ... wording was unclear
> Updated MRE ... expected end Oct-22 plus confirmation that JORC compliant
> Update on expansion drilling progress across Longorian licence area around Kilimapesa
Fingers crossed will drop soon as suspense is killing me !
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Just looking at the Daily GCAT chart we have clear support/resistance price points at 0.6. 0.675, 0.725, 0.875 & 1.025 which have been key inflection points established as the price has ranged from Feb-22 through May-22. We have (rightly) had strong positive reaction to the recent funding confirmation news with eth PX peaking at 1.025p (opening) and now heading back to 0.875p which should now be strong support.
... IMHO I am expecting 0.875p to hold albeit I am expecting it to be tested as traders cycle back out and take tehir profits
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@Trek So reasonable worst case ... any POG increase, AISC reduction or amortisation over a longer period helps your payback figures, but as you say other than the small %fee there is not a lot else to go on
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@Trek Just trying to get my head around your numbers ...
1) why assume 20.4 months term for OCIM Tranche 1 $10.5m or is that the term that is spat out assuming 2koz/month and 2% fee on 10% of production?
2) why assume 6 months at $500k/month for Philoro $3m loan when they said 6 tranches but no idea of period ?
Agreed on POG premium as output is metal and not paper and OCIM will be really making the "real" money on the arbitrage supplying metal into physical market where coins et al trade on significant premium to spot price
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@JC Agreed, now that the £11m non-dilutative funding facilities have been secured it is all about GCAT BoD delivering on their 2koz/month or 24koz/annum production promises for end Mar-2023 which is a ramp up of approx. 4x from the current circa average of 490oz/month since Aug-21 RTO.
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@ID78 Thanks appreciate the feedback, and in all seriousness go have a look at the decent investee companies I follow closely Rincon Resources (copper/gold), Charger Metals (lithium), First Tin, Eagle Mountain Mining (copper/gold) and Pacific Nickel (too easy).
Rincon Resources is still my favourite despite the drill campaign running about 12 months behind where I had hoped it would be; on the flip side they have added a new Paterson tenement and all the evidence says they have their gold under 80-150m of barren cover rather than GGPs and WSBNs 300m+ cover.
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Not seen any posts since Jun-22 appear and given large bounce that seems an issue with BB ?!
@TelyTubby Clearly not read a single RNS then ... if you are going to deramp at least sound like you know what you are talking about!
... and for the record GCAT has a non-dilutative cash facility of £11.07m ($13.5m) from OCIM & Philoro against up to 20% of future gold production sold at spot minus small discount so GCAT still gets benefit of a rising gold price against its low circa $1,100 AISC
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@ID78 Yes GUN is an interesting Goldie/Commodity fund around 50-60% below NAV ... like anything depends on your focus and timescales, but also owns a good chunk of Rincon Resources
Sorry off-topic
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@SW1000 No idea as could not find reference myself so presumed I had missed it !
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@Devil Agreed, until POG turns us Goldies are all 'Doomed@
!
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@SonO***un & SW1000 David Lenigas is now helping to run the show at the Copper/Gold explorer Rincon Resources (ASX:RCR) who also have significant Paterson tenements south and south-west of GGPs Haverion and Telfer whilst (I think) WSBN is north of Telfer. DL has significant mining experience in the region and RCR is tiny but with lots of historical drilling plus recent stuff and more Paterson tenements to leverage.
Full disclosure ... that is why I'm invested in RCR and not WSBN. Also Gunsynd (GUN) is a 16%+ shareholder in RCR
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@Chisler Good to see Brian Hall, CEO topping up with a further 10m shares using his own money ... looking good
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@Bebeto Yep the Jul-21 prospectus (p35/36) stated Vim Rutha as multiple high grade veins approx 12g/t ...looking forward to drill results
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@Bebeto Let's agree to disagree on those figures shall we?
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@Bebeto I think most PIs investing in PMs understand that AISC isn't perfect, but what is leftover (POG - AISC) is (mostly) free cashflow and IF GCAT does not spend FCF on something then it is profit.
Yes, I should have been clearer, but certainly no intent to mislead just my presumption that most on this BB understand the difference
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@BluBay Please re-read the 2x RNSs on the OCIM and Philoro funding as both are for GCAT to sell them a fixed %production at SPOT price minus a small discount/refining fee to cover the lenders costs & fees. Contrary to what you said this means that GCAT can ...
1) Make a profit as $spot - $discount -$AISC = still a very healthy profit at circa $1,150 AISC @$1,750/$1,800 POG
2) Still has capacity to raise further non-dilutative capital on similar terms on at least 80% unencumbered production
> OCIM = 15% of production
> Philoro = 3-5% of production (my guess)
3) Cash position now £11m over next 3-4 months as per RNS terms to fund push to 24koz/annum production
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RM Tweet ... "Well done to the Caracal team #fullyfunded#gcat#OCIM#Philoro. Vim Rutha results and Kilimapesa project economics this week ????????????"
So2x RNSs this week then
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So todays position at Market open will be ...
GCAT MCap = £13.2m versus secured cash position of total = $13.5m or £11.07m
Cash funding detail ... secured against future gold production at small discount to spot and/or refining fee
> OCIM Tranche #1 = $7m or £5.74m ... by 31-Dec-22
> Philoro = $3m or £2.46m ... by 31-Dec-22
> OCIM Tranche #2 = $3.5m or £2.87m ... by 31-Mar-23
IMHO this now totally derisks GCAT to 24koz/year gold production from Mar-23 and will likely allow GCAT to accelerate development at BOTH Kilimapesa mine and Nyakafuru mine development project.
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ShareTalk always have something interesting to say and what stood out for me was this "Work has been underway since March to expand production at Kilimapesa to the promised 24,000oz of gold per annum, with a focus on processing the lower grade ore being mined from the Kilimapesa Hill deposit through a heap leach processing facility with a capacity of 65,000tpm."
We know Plant 3 = 3x 15kt pads and Plant 4 = 2x 6okt pads, but Charles Archer stated this as 65kt/month which implies a 2-month average cook cycle. Maybe Q3 Operations report will update us on Heap Leach usage and % recoveries?!
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