The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with multi-award-winning fund manager and international bestselling author Lee Freeman-Shor has just been released. Listen here.
Yeah I contemplated on a couple of occasions that it could be a strategy to bring in new investors who clearly were unprepared to take the risky investment in Vast at previous share price. Only time will reveal the truth.
What is Paul Fletcher "the CFO" doing? His linkedin profile is decent - https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-fletcher-1a5b44a9/?originalSubdomain=uk. Has been at Vast for a couple of years now.
@ Sarah, you can message AP on his twitter handle. He will certainly read that.
@ antharry, yeah AP did say he would look to draw down in December. Let's see what is in the next RNS which most likely will be in the 1st week of Jan.
@ Sandy, as per AP's interview with Crux Investors, he said Zagra will be a joint venture as that is too big for Vast and Blueberry (in which Vast has 29.41%) will be a separate IPO (he didn't say on which stock exchange) and he even dared to say that "any potential takeover" is a few years away. He is clearly a salesman hopefully evolving into a decent and competent CEO.
To all talking about delist and privatisation: let's be honest with ourselves we don't have any evidence that this will happen. If we go by AP's interview with Crux Investors, he is clearly thinking that Blueberry will be a separate IPO (yeah I know, how much we all trust AP) so he is clearly not thinking of going private or delist. In any kind of business, reputation is everything. And AP is learning the hard way that he hasn't done himself any favours with some of the RNSs with mixed messages or unclear messages.
Comms: if we look at other companies twitter handles, we will find they have New Year's messages. Nothing on Vast's twitter. I read this as poor management. It doesn't matter if things are not going great for Vast but one need to maintain integrity and strength always as tough times don't last but tough people do.
Of course I won't be making the same mistake as Vast and wishing A Very Happy, Healthy & Prosperous New Year to everyone!! Cheers :0
@maxcady, that is a proper interview. There were recent job ads too hiring for Baita. Increase in employee count is a certain sign of more production in our case and more production = to the targets being met = to their investment = to a Vast rebound next year (which unfortunately didn't happen in the last 4 years). Only time will reveal the truth.
Good Luck All!
@Sarah, I thought the same and giggled that there are more chats than trades today. Talking (in this case writing) does help to get the thoughts and feelings out of the system :). SP has found support @ 0.13 over the last few days. I don't give personal advise but reading your other post I couldn't help but say hold your investment for the next few weeks at least and see what happens then.
Let's hope no news is good news in relation to this asset backed debt finance.
Good Luck All!
Can we close this going private and delisting topic as no one has presented anything substantial to suggest this may happen? If one has something substantial please do share along with your feelings so it helps everyone here.
I agree with Sandy, @stringer01 please refrain from dishing out negative advise to someone personally. Of course, you can share your views broadly. And Vast is not a sinking ship yet. In fact, for those reading this and haven't invested you may consider investing a sensible amount post further announcements from Vast on the asset backed debt finance.
@Sandy, sure, you have known AP for 4 years and I have seen and listened to all his interviews this year (the one with Crux Investors was a proper one in my view) and in this one on a couple of occasions his facts didn't join up with what he was saying. For example, Matthew asked AP whether more investment will be required in Baita to produce for the next 3 to 4 years and AP quickly says no and then he says that the expected investment required has been included in the estimates done by Craig Harvey. So I agree AP could do much better to present himself and under promise and over deliver.
@Sarah, this interview with Crux Investors also suggests that Crux will be interviewing him every quarter. Also, AP was saying that the figures will be presented once every quarter. Watch from 35 minutes onwards if you haven't already watched. Next few weeks will be the key and we will know if there will be further dramas or smooth sailing onwards. I have a feeling it will be the latter.
I agree with you Sandy, if AP is a conman then he should be removed as the CEO asap. I am new to Vast and have researched AP's past and the bank deal fiascos. As I have said in my previous posts he doesn't have long to prove himself and keep Vast from going under.
70% of the earnings for the FTSE 100 companies are from outside the UK which includes Europe so this won't be a problem for Vast.
The actual impact of the Brexit deal is unknown on trading as the Brexit deal did not cover Britain’s much larger finance sector, meaning automatic access to the EU's financial markets comes to an end on Dec 31.
https://www.hl.co.uk/news/2020/12/29/brexit-big-bang-to-trigger-tectonic-trading-rift-in-europe?cid=halDM159302&bid=625582178&e_cti=11479069&e_ct=T&utm_source=AdobeCampaign&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EONRM_Daily%20Newsroom_Opt%20in_29.12.20&theSource=EONRM&Override=1
Sorry for going spiritual/philosophical here, has anyone heard of the Serenity Prayer? It goes like this "God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, courage to change the things I can, and wisdom to know the difference."
Let us all take a deep breadth and relax as we can't change anything other than to sell our shares (to prevent further loss if we are worried)
With Baita we have copper (copper will be in demand for the next 5 to 10 years) and in the next year or two we will be back to 0.60p level and I am aware many have invested around that level so they will be relieved to not incur any losses.
As far as AP's past & future is concerned, as many of you have shared if he doesn't deliver in the next few months then it is clear to see his days are numbered.
Apologies for stating the obvious, debt is debt which Vast will need to pay off (of course if the deal with the international bank comes good then it may have better terms than the present debt with Atlas) and debt payment and its interest payments will impact the bottom line, in turn, this will act as speed bumps and potential increase of the share price. Of course, moderate debt to equity ratio is no bad thing.
Lets hope there will be no more placings for at least next few months or never in the future as that sends the signal to the market and potential institutional investors that the company doesn't have cash and potential institutional investors who considered investing in Vast won't keep re-considering their investment in Vast everyday as for them there will be lots of other opportunities to consider.
As per LME copper prices are good and future forecast is good - https://www.lme.com/en-GB/Metals/Non-ferrous/Copper#tabIndex=0
As per the recent job posts that others have shared Vast is hiring for miners, procurement specialist, etc. which is a very positive sign and we hope these are new jobs and not replacing folks who may have left.
Let's hope Baita is producing as per Craig Harvey's estimates. If it is, Vast will survive in the short term and thrive in the mid to long term.
May be one of us can take a flight to Bihor Romania and take a look at what is going on at Baita. Actually, why don't Vast fit few online cameras at Baita (a bit like the BBC's Spring watch and Winter watch live cameras) so all of us can keep an eye on the developments
Good Luck!
That is great news @SorB. Few days ago @antharry found this https://lajumate.ro/angajam-mineri-de-productie-subterana-12481255.html
Your link has a lot more jobs though which is a good thing :)
Hello All (in particular Sarah - please don't worry if you are as the only thing we can control is buying and selling and at what time - everything else is beyond our control), a company with existing debt going to an international bank for asset backed debt finance might worry for sure so reducing debt was the right thing to do. Also, I have studied Vast and AP at some length (and I am sure all of you have too) and the only hope I have with AP is I hope he has done all the things in the last 3 years with a planned and strategic view and not by piecemeal (of course one has to react to the market conditions and adapt accordingly). If he has done the "right thing for Vast and its shareholders" everytime he had an opportunity so far since stepping in as the CEO then there is nothing to worry in terms of Vast's sustainability and the eventual and gradual increase in its share price is imminent as I am sure AP is worried too. The only relevant question then will be by how much the share price will increase with circa 20+ billion shares outstanding till date and with Vast's assets of which only Baita is producing presently???
Point to note and ponder: after the initial draw down from Atlas at the beginning of this year, the conversation with the international bank started (I imagine) in March as per the RNS and then circa 11+ million of placings this year so were Vast & AP really following a well established risk oriented strategy?????? I am not convinced. For my day job I deal with commercials, risks and management. I am sure you follow other AIM companies in the mining sector and there are definitely more competent CEOs out there who have strong and proven experience in the mining sector.
In my recent posts, I have mentioned that Vast is at an inflection point and it will soon thrive or struggle to survive. I have also mentioned that AP does have a history of bankruptcy which as per AP wasn't his fault and was down to the investor having decided to not invest (which some or most us are aware of), do you think the international bank hasn't considered this? Despite all this, I decided to take the risk and invest in Vast recently (didn't take part in any placings) and long on Vast as it has potential. If we have invested in Vast then we have to put our trust in Vast and AP (or the next CEO if his days are numbered), pray and hope that next few months/years will be much better for Vast and all of us.
The ideal outcome with this international bank will be the bank agrees to lend money as per Vast and AP's requirements and also agrees to buy a certain number of shares which will provide a strong vote of confidence. And if this international bank could be ERDB then they have done something similar with other companies listed on AIM.
God bless all!
Sure understood @EyeGuy, thank for taking the time to respond. I bought some stock earlier today. Will buy tomorrow in the 4 and a half hours trading or the following week.
Thanks EyeGuy, do you have a view on why RMM is not making a profit?
@Steve, many thanks. I am not in the de-ramper camp. if you read my posts you will understand. It looks you know RMM, can you please help me out with this query if you know: in the presentation it says 20+ years of mine life, do you know if the JORC/estimates were done by an independent party or were they done internally by RMM please?
To LTHs and anyone willing to help: I am new to RMM (& looking to invest a decent amount) and just wondering if someone with some facts is able to list out major risks please? My research shows total shares outstanding grown by 527.6% in the past year. Is this because RMM had to settle some debt but didn't have cash? Or the placings were required to fill the gap in cash flow from Ming operations due to Covid? Or were there any other reasons please?
My research also shows earnings have declined by 18.1% per year over past 5 years. Is this because the copper/gold grade is declining or they are depleting.
Any help will be greatly appreciated. Many thanks.
Hi @Sarah, generally we don't know what AP and Vast is planning and we don't how the conversations/negotiations with the bank are proceeding.
We do have a problem with how high Vast's SP can rise and I have laid out below:
1. Vast have 20.98 billion shares outstanding and the current market cap is £26.85 million
2. As per the RNS on 7th September titled "Baita Plai Project Production and Operational Cash Flow & Baita Plai General Mine Update" the estimated/forecasted net revenue will be $41,797,975 by the end of Oct 2020 (after all the costs/expenses from Baita we will have $22,609,915 by end of Oct 2020)
3. Note the estimates are in dollars and the current market cap in pounds so at the current foreign exchange rate from usd to gbp it will be £31,222,460.36 (£31.22 million)
4. So it looks like the current SP is not too far off the net revenue from Baita by end of Oct 2020.
Let's look at Vast's other assets
5. We know Vast has "Zagra" which is non producing and as per AP we will need a major player as this is out of our league to bring this mine to production
6. We know we have 29.41% interest in Blueberry Gold asset and as per AP this will be a joint venture with someone and a separate IPO (Vast will manage this asset and its production as per AP)
7. We know we have Manaila where there could be further production but require investment as the flotation plant is very far (I can't remember the exact distance) and it took up 30% of the costs as per AP
8. And finally we know we have Zimbabwe (diamonds) which is also non producing.
9. In summary, we have only Baita in production.
Do you see my thoughts (of course my analysis could be totally wrong and I hope it is :) for the sake of the shareholders)? I am heavily invested and long on Vast. Let's see where we go. In the next few days things will become clear for good or for worse.