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Bezzell, you should check you facts with the company before spouting continuous negative dribble. I agree that the processors or rastra owners are not obvious beneficiaries. Plantel Los Angelos claims to have eliminated 1.5 tonnes of mercury. Massive clean up of the environment, eliminating the mercury which is supported by the Government. The plant is apparently at full capacity. At B2 the rastra owners get offered other jobs (security guards etc) or act as aggregators/middle men, buying ore from the artisanal miners and selling to Plantel Los Angelos. The latter buys 10 tonnes at a time, so there are middle men and/or cooperatives who aggregate. Rastra owners are stakeholders and with the IFC/World Bank involved there has to be a "Livelihood restoration plan". it is not all gloom and doom as you suggest.
metallurgical recovery from mercury rastras in 45% and through a CIL plant 92%. The artisanal miner sells his ore to the rastra owner, who takes a turn and then has to sell the amalgam of gold and silver to a middle man. the artisanal miner will be lucky to get 25% to 30%. He gets $30 our of $100. At B2Gold's Libertade, "Plantel Los Angelos" is a 200tpd plant buying ore from artisanal miners ore a 40% to 45%. the artisanal miners will sell ore to the main mill at La India if Condor pays 205 to 30% more than the rastra owners. Money talks. Bezzel's (a disgruntled former employe or someone who was refused a job, lost a contact or works for an anti mining NGO) assertion that artisanal miners won't sell ore to Condor is a false. Look at the B2 model. They will love Condor is they increase their salary 20% to 30%.
Looks like they have settled for 80k oz gold pa vs 100k oz gold pa. The PFS open pit has a reserve of 675,000 oz gold and production of around 80,000 oz gold pa. The Whittle optimised pit, pushed the PFS pit deeper, took in underground ounces into the pit, increasing the pit size to 866,000 oz gold in the Indicated category that can be used in a reserve. The optimised pit increase production to 100,000 oz gold pa, was larger and definitely required village relocation.
NoEasy, the biggest risk now is that the Board receives a cheeky bid at say a 50% premium. I suspect MC has been saying the company is not for sale. Condor doesn't have to let producers review the assets. The Strategy has been the same for 2 years 1) build an operation a base case 2) add 2M oz gold The Company shouldn't be sold for under US$150M, preferably over US$200, but to achieve this valuation there has to be a few catalysts. Our time will come: 1) permits for a base case 100k oz pa. 2) add 1M to 2M oz gold to the resource 3) double the reserve, the economic ounces in a PFS to 1.5M oz gold 4) show the path to 200k oz gold pa producer
Agreed, moving forward. The key signal of movement is 7 to 8 meetings with Ministers, President's son, local Governor, mayor, priests etc. More meetings in a week than a year. Ministers are busy people and only take meetings when essential. The President's son attending...presumably he has to have political clearance from the President to meet MC to discuss permits. What's changed? Elections out the way and proposal to proceed without the need to resettle 1,000 people. No reason for permits not to be granted. 700k oz recovered gold from a smaller pit. mine it quicker and still 100k oz gold pa? Compares with PFS of 675k and Whittle optimised of 866k indicated ounces. Slight reduction compared to optimised pit, but they just go underground earlier. excellent result
BigJamie, my bet is that the Government has already been presented with alternatives to construct and operate a mine without resettlement. That's implicit in the video. These proposals or proposal will involve details of a new mine site infrastructure layout, which will be agreed with the Government before permits are granted. The permits are delayed 18 months, that's plenty of time to redesign the mine layout. This could happen quite quickly, but it all depends on the Government who issue the permits. The signs are positive, B2Gold has been issued 2 permits and Golden Reign a permit with the last 3 months. The Government attends PDAC in early March to promote a mining friendly jurisdiction. With no resettlement, the obstacle to permits is removed and permits can be granted
NoEasy, i've just looked at the TMX video Q&A. I agree, this looks like a pivotal moment and a major breakthrough could be on the cards. The question posed is "Biggest Challenges" to which the answer, as we all know is resettlement of 330 house or 1,000 people. MC says, "we have a couple of back up plans to get around the resettlement". In other words the mine goes ahead without resettlement. He owns 10% of Condor directly and indirectly and of course is going to do what it takes to get a mine permitted. As CEO he is living this 24/7 unlike the rest of us armchair generals who have other jobs and comment from the comfort of the UK. He gets it that value is unlocked with permits. What are the options for a mine with no resettlement? 1) smaller pit, redesigned access ramps, but still the same annual production, which has 80,000 oz gold in the PFS or 100,000 oz gold in the Whittle optimisation, but a shorter mine life of say 7 years not 9 years. 2) Add feeder pits of 100k to 160k on America and 60k on Central Breccia and what about one on Mestiza? As i have pointed out, the 6,000m drill last year on Tatiana vein discovered a high grade ore shoot, of 150k oz at 10g/t gold. perhaps the first 80m can be a feeder pit? 3) so, 3 possible feeder pits of an aggregate 300k oz gold or conservatively 200k oz recovered gold or an additional 40k oz gold pa for 5 years 4) 120k to 150k oz per annum from open pits for 5 years 5) outside the pits there is underground circa 1M oz gold, the recent powerpoint says underground can be expanded by 900k oz with 20,000m drilling. recovered gold from underground 1m to 1.2m oz or another 100k oz gold per annum. 6)All this without 200k oz in 4 satellite deposits open along strike and to depth and a touted 5M oz gold district My bet is that the Government has been presented with a scenario to proceed without resettlement, thus removing the major obstacle to permits.
No shares have been issued into Canada. If a Canadian investor buy shares they do it online e.g. via TD Securities, who buy in the London market and then re-register it in the Canadian electronic share registry via Computershare. This shows up as a trade on AIM, re-registering shares from Computershare UK to Computershare Canada doesn't require the trade to show up on the TSX website as a trade. Commentators expecting a lot of trades on the TSX have reached the wrong conclusion. The trades are done in London and don't show up in Canada. This is evident by the large increase in daily volume on AIM in the last 3 weeks. In due course, expect the registry to migrate 30% to 50% to Computershare Canada. Trading will pick up on the TSX. Don't be surprised if the next placement in 6 months is a bought deal by a Canadian retail broker with shares issued into Canada and registered with Computershare Canada. This will have the benefit of A) increasing liquidity on the TSX and B) anyone in the UK won't get shares so have to buy in the market.
Dr Warren Pratt, chief geological consultant to Condor Gold plc has produced two excellent videos on the geology of La India Project ahead of theTSX listing, which is this month. Both are on www.condorgold.com. This will excite the Canadian investors as it demonstrates a major gold district and very high grade, highly economic world class deposit. The link below discusses the main La India Vein set, which hosts the La India open pit resource: http://www.condorgold.com/news-media/media-press/condor-la-india-vein-set-december-2017 A second video discusses the other 6 resources and the exploration upside of the Gold District http://www.condorgold.com/news-media/media-press/condor-gold-la-india-project-district-geology
Slim, the announcement says it is a non financing prospectus. That means they are not raising money on the TSX listing. Condor will have had to satisfy the TSX they have 12 months working capital otherwise it would be a placement on TSX listing. STG 3.2 million at the interims. Drilling is the biggest cash burn and stopped in early August as the market is ignoring excellent drill results. Condor has a low burn rate as it is mapping, trenching etc. The focus is on permits
Ross Beaty: google the Lumina group, he raised $170M for an investment vehicle and bought a load of copper and gold assets in the last cycle and sold the portfolio for $1.87 billion. The 11 fold increase has given him "Warren Buffet" type of following in Canada amongst retail. They also made 30 times their money on Ventana Gold sold for US$1.3bn at the top of the last cycle. His guy, Dr Warren Pratt who has consulted to Beaty for years, including Ventana Gold, works for Condor and oversees all exploration, his bio is in Condor's website https://m.canadianinsider.com/blog/ross-beaty-beefs-junior-holdings
NoEasy, i guess that is what makes a market. i am convinced there will be a mine and permits will be granted, but I totally agree there is uncertainty over resettlement which is why the shares are a quarter the price of the Canadian peer group. The World Bank/IFC as a shareholder in Condor isn't going to allow a forced expropriation nor should a UK listed company conduct forced resettlement. The IFC has invested in many projects globally from Hydro Electric Power to mining that require resettlement and provide guidelines called the Performance Standards for land acquisition and resettlement. The Company has to to a deal with the community. If they can't agree on a resettlement there is still US$3 billion of gold in the ground, increasing to US$5 billion. There is too much money at stake for there not to be a mine. It would be amazing if there wasn't a Plan B. Note the PEA B scenario under Whittle optimisation has an open pit underground scenario of 165,000 oz gold pa from La India and America. 100k oz open pit 65k oz underground, excluding Mestiza. Plan B for not moving the village is probably an underground only scenario or a smaller pit and underground combination. Either may permits get granted without a resettlement.
NoEasy, i hope we all agree the evidence is that permits will be granted. Nicaragua is a pro-mining country, they have permitted 3 open pits in the in he last 3 months: 1 at Golden Reign and 2 at B2Gold. Permits are a given its just a question of time. if we don't believe permits will be granted, don't hold the shares. The delay has hammered the share price this year. Where would Condor be valued if it hadn't bothered applying for permits and focused instead on doubling the reserve or PFS and expanding the resource? A new audience of savvy Canadian investors, Ross Beaty has a massive retail following, will look through the permitting delay. it is discounted in the share price at US$15 per oz gold in the ground vs US$74 for the TSX listed peer group. Canadians understand many explorers get sold and leave the permits to the big boys. New GM at Mina La India, CFO have presumably joined because they think there will be a mine
Ross Beaty is behind the creation of Equinox Gold, an all share merger of 3 TSX listed companies valuing them at C$450M. Ross has put in C$20M to maintain a 10% shareholding and is Chairman. The merger valuations are interesting as they give a guide to a valuation for Condor. Trek Mining C$205M, Newcastle C$190M and Anfield Gold C$50. the merger comes with a U$85M credit facility from Sprott and US$200m developers and acquisition facility. Newcastle's Aurizona project in Brazil has a P&P reserve of 971k oz gold at 1.52g/t gold vs Condor's reserve of 675k oz at 3.1g/t gold. Plus a resource of 1.4M oz gold vs Condor's resource 1.65M oz gold. Aurizona is due to pour gold in 12 months, has all the permits, production 136k oz for 6.5 years. AISC $754 & IRR 34% broadly in line with Condor's. La India's production range is 100k to 165k oz p.a. based on the Whittle optimisation. production could be the same as Aurizona, ounces reserve less at La India but this is simply a question of increasing reserves, Condor's resource is slightly more. it is easy to see La India Project equalling or bettering Aurizona's numbers, they are broadly the same. Newcastle is valued at US$145M vs Condor US$38M. the valuation cap will close with permits and a TSX listing
PMS Zurich powerpoint presentation last week, see slide on TSX peer group, RBC Capital Markets valuations as at 30th October 2017...therefore recent valuation comparisons: TSX/ASX average RBC follow is US$74 per resource oz gold in the ground vs US$15 for Condor. Price to Book value (typically a Net Asset Value using a DCF model) 0.67 times vs 0.18 times for Condor. TSX brokers have an easy chance to generate commissions and sell the RBC basket and buy Condor at a quarter of the valuation.
Nero, take a look at TSXv listed Aurion Resources, gold exploration in Finland, market cap of CAD 154 million, a few rock chip samples, just started drilling a month ago, no resources. The difference is it has some money from B2Gold and Kinross recently took a placement. The endorsement of a producer is increasing important.
Well spotted. 20k for resource expansion on the 3 core areas of 2.1Moz ....low risk as the drilling is along strike and down dip using the existing 3D geological model Good slide on the 2,800m scout drilling, which aims at a new discovery on the Project. Slide highlights 17m at 2g/t on Cacao, but haven’t hit the boiling zone/high grade zone. Don’t forget the 4 small resources that aggregate 200k, one or two could be much bigger.....probably Cacao as it has width, but they need to hit the high grade zone and get 17m at 20g/t
Strider4 hasn't a clue how epithermal gold deposits work. A vein can be 1,500 m long, like the Tatiana vein on Mestiza. There are high grade zones or ore shoot caused by a dilation opening in the vein interspersed with zones of low grade, thin, mineralisation. The veins "pinch and swell along strike". The challenge for the geologists is to identify the swell, which contains high grade gold. High grade ore shoots can radically change the project economics. the low grade zones may not get mined as there is a minimum mining width and gram per meters tonne. to get a resource one has to drill the entire 1,500m, you should expect high grade and low grade drill intersects along the vein. i calculate there is 360,000 oz gold in the high grade ore shoot at Mestiza, recovered gold 252,000 oz gold and free cash flow US$200m...all additional "The best part is we are now told the Russian resource is to a depth of 500m. Taking the high grade ore shoot of 10g/t gold (there are 28 g/t gold intersects). 450 m width x 500 m depth x 2.2 width x 2.3 specific gravity x 10g/t gold = 366,000 oz gold at US$1,250 = US$457 million. Assume one can get out 75% and there is 92% metallurgical recover. 252,000 oz recovered gold = US$315 million. underground mining cost are around US$85tonne and open pit US$50tonne or conservatively 2g/t. free cash flow is over US$200 million"
The 43 drill hole programme has been a terrific success and the results analysed in their entirety. The last 6 drill holes or 14% of the programme show 18 g/t gold only 20 m beneath surface, hence the open pit comment, which is a change from the previous underground. the best part is we are now told the Russian resource is to a depth of 500m. Taking the high grade ore shoot of 10g/t gold (there are 28 g/t gold intersects). 450 m width x 500 m depth x 2.2 width x 2.3 specific gravity x 10g/t gold = 366,000 oz gold at US$1,250 = US$457 million. Assume one can get out 75% and there is 92% metallurgical recover. 252,000 oz recovered gold = US$315 million. underground mining cost are around US$85tonne and open pit US$50tonne or conservatively 2g/t. free cash flow is over US$200 million
Patryk, the Government has delayed the project due to resettlement not the CEO. The Government issues permits, if the Company could issue itself a permit it would have done so. Directors have 12% of the shares and shed loads of options, plus a 24/7 time commitment, they have the most to gain and lose. Try and shoot the right person