Aug 31 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased about 1% on Thursday on a bigger-than-expected storage build, ongoing outages from Hurricane Idalia and forecasts for less demand in coming weeks as seasonally cooler weather cuts air-conditioning use.
Despite the seasonal decline in temperatures, however, meteorologists forecast the weather would remain hotter than normal
through at least mid-September.The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 32 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Aug. 25.
That was more than the 25-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 61 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average increase of 51 bcf.
Analysts noted the amount of gas added to storage was more than expected even though power generators burned lots of gas last week to keep air conditioners humming as extreme heat blanketed the central U.S. Utilities pulled gas from the South Central
region, which includes Texas, for a sixth straight week, the longest such streak since 2017.Front-month gas futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2.8 cents, or 1.0%, to settle at $2.768 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Wednesday, the contract closed at its highest since Aug. 9.
More than 173,000 homes and businesses were still without power in Florida and Georgia, one day after Hurricane Idalia slammed into the west coast of Florida, according to data from PowerOutage.us. Those totals were down from peaks of around 288,000 outages
in Florida and over 217,000 out in Georgia.On Thursday afternoon, Idalia was a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 65 miles per hour (100 kilometers per hour), located about 120 miles (195 kilometers) southeast of Cape Lookout, North Carolina, according to the U.S. National
Hurricane Center (NHC).Texas remained hot and homes and businesses there kept their air conditioners cranked up. On Wednesday, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) urged consumers to conserve energy for a sixth time in the past seven days, due in part to "a
high level of unexpected thermal generation outages and forecasted low wind generation."For Thursday, ERCOT forecast the power situation would be less tight than the past week with supplies expected to exceed demand by almost 4,000 megawatts (MW) after the sun goes down and solar power stops working at around 8 p.m. local time. Earlier
in the week, demand was expected to exceed supplies by around 800 MW at around 8 p.m. on Tuesday before a call for conservation.Extreme heat boosts the amount of gas burned to produce power for cooling, especially in Texas, which gets most of its electricity from gas-fired plants. In 2022, about 49% of the state's power came from gas-fired plants, with most of the rest
coming from wind (22%), coal (16%), nuclear (8%) and solar (4%), federal energy data showed.
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Aug 25 Aug 18 Aug 25 average
Actual Actual Aug 25
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 32 32 61 51
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,115 3,083 2,631 2,866
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 8.7% 9.5%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year
Last Year Average Average
2022 (2017-2021)
Henry Hub 2.78 2.80 8.78 6.54 2.89
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 10.80 11.29 69.68 40.50 7.49
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 13.41 13.39 53.22 34.11 8.95
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year
Norm Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs 6 6 3 7 17
U.S. GFS CDDs 200 201 189 165 145
U.S. GFS TDDs 206 207 192 172 162
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year
Week Last Year Average For
Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 101.4 100.9 101.1 98.8 92.0
U.S. Imports from Canada 7.2 7.2 7.4 8.4 8.1
U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total U.S. Supply 108.5 108.1 108.5 107.2 100.8
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 1.4 1.5 1.5 2.1 2.5
U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.9 7.0 6.8 5.1 5.6
U.S. LNG Exports 11.8 12.5 12.8 10.4 6.1
U.S. Commercial 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
U.S. Residential 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.4
U.S. Power Plant 46.9 46.5 44.2 42.9 41.2
U.S. Industrial 21.4 21.4 21.3 21.3 21.5
U.S. Plant Fuel 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total U.S. Consumption 83.7 83.3 80.9 79.6 78.0
Total U.S. Demand 103.9 104.2 101.9 97.2 92.2
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam Current Day Prior Day 2022 2021 2020
% of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal
Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual
Apr-Sep 83 83 107 81 103
Jan-Jul 77 77 102 79 98
Oct-Sep 76 76 103 81 95
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended
Sep 1 Aug 25 Aug 18 Aug 11 Aug 4
Wind 4 7 7 7 7
Solar 4 4 4 4 4
Hydro 5 5 6 5 5
Other 2 2 2 2 2
Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0
Natural Gas 47 45 45 45 45
Coal 20 20 19 19 20
Nuclear 18 17 17 17 17
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub <NG-W-HH-SNL> 2.48 2.50
Transco Z6 New York <NG-CG-NY-SNL> 1.37 1.42
PG&E Citygate <NG-CG-PGE-SNL> 4.46 4.80
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) <NG-PCN-APP-SNL> 1.31 1.25
Chicago Citygate <NG-CG-CH-SNL> 2.33 2.32
Algonquin Citygate <NG-CG-BS-SNL> 1.43 1.45
SoCal Citygate <NG-SCL-CGT-SNL> 3.62 6.49
Waha Hub <NG-WAH-WTX-SNL> 2.21 2.32
AECO <NG-ASH-ALB-SNL> 1.94 1.93
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Current Day
New England <EL-PK-NPMS-SNL> 25.75 31.75
PJM West <EL-PK-PJMW-SNL> 24.50 31.00
Ercot North <EL-PK-ERTN-SNL> 150.00 415.00
Mid C <EL-PK-MIDC-SNL> 69.00 68.75
Palo Verde <EL-PK-PLVD-SNL> 53.00 93.25
SP-15 <EL-PK-SP15-SNL> 66.50 97.00
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