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UPDATE 3-Turkey coup and disruption force Thomas Cook profit outlook cut

Thu, 28th Jul 2016 09:45

* Thomas Cook cuts full-year profit target

* Q3 underlying operating profit fell 93 pct to 2 mln pounds

* Shares up 5.9 pct at 0945 GMT, after initial 1.7 pct fall

* CEO pledges to pay dividend (Adds CEO quotes, dividend detail)

By Kate Holton

LONDON, July 28 (Reuters) - British travel company ThomasCook lowered its full-year profit forecast on Thursdayas attacks in Europe and the failed coup in the populardestination of Turkey made people change their holiday plans.

Europe's travel industry has been hit in recent months asholiday groups and airlines struggled to respond to attacks inFrance, Belgium and Germany, prolonged security issues in Turkeyand uncertainty caused by Britain's vote to leave the EU.

Thomas Cook, the world's oldest travel firm, said itsunderlying operating profit had fallen 93 percent in the thirdquarter, as it worked to move its holiday packages from theeastern to the western Mediterranean.

Its shares, which have more than halved in the last 12months, initially opened down but jumped 7 percent when ChiefExecutive Peter Fankhauser pledged to pay the dividend. ThomsonReuters Eikon SmartEstimate, based on analyst estimates,forecasts a dividend payment of 1.1 pence per share for 2016.

"We are operating in a challenging geopolitical environment,with repeated disruption in some of our key source anddestination markets," he said.

"In addition, while Brexit has had no noticeable impact onour bookings so far, it has added to a general sense ofuncertainty - for our business and our customers alike."

Thomas Cook launched a turnaround plan in 2012 after twoyears when the euro zone debt crisis and political turmoil inEgypt and Tunisia left it struggling with its debt.

It has since shifted airline seats from Turkey, Tunisia andEgypt to the Canaries, Balearics and mainland Spain.

While the efforts have put Thomas Cook on a strongerfooting, the firm has struggled with the repeated securityproblems across the region, especially in Turkey, its fourthmost important market.

On Thursday it said it expected to report operating profitfor its full-year of 300 million pounds ($395 million), comparedwith a forecast in May of between 310 million and 335 millionpounds.

"We view this as better than feared although with 80 percentof the programme sold risks remain on the downside," analysts atShore Capital said.

Operating profit in the third quarter fell 93 percent to 2million pounds, from 30 million pounds a year ago, while summerbookings were down 5 percent compared to last year.

Adding to the uncertainty, Britain's vote to leave the EUmeans the pound is down 12 percent against the dollar and 8.5percent lower against the euro, making overseas holidays moreexpensive for Britons.

Fankhauser said Thomas Cook customers should not see anyimmediate rise in costs because the group had hedged againstcurrency moves until next summer.

($1 = 0.7586 pounds) (Editing by Costas Pitas and Alexander Smith)

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