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Tuesday tips round-up: Talvivaara, Michael Page, Avon Rubber...

Tue, 11th Oct 2011 06:48

BIt's been a tough year for investors in Talvivaara Mining, the FTSE 250-listed owner of a Finnish nickel mine, writes the Independent. As if a 29 per cent drop in the nickel price in the past six months and a series of plant stoppages in April and May weren't bad enough, the company delivered a triple whammy of bad news on Friday. Shares tumbled by a fifth at the end of last week, after Talvivaara cut its output guidance, warned of a strike and announced the surprise resignation of the chief executive, Pekka Pera. As one analyst put it "there is no sugar-coating a dire third quarter", while Mr Pera proclaimed that "as a 23 per cent shareholder I would sack myself". Still, it should be noted that Goldman Sachs forecasts a strong growth in the price of nickel over at least the next year, while production should rebound next year. So Talvivaara might make a good investment in the longer term. Given the recent update, however, we would keep clear for now. Avoid, recommends the paper.The market reacted with a distinct lack of enthusiasm to the third-quarter update from Michael Page International, even if most of the bad news should by now be in the public domain, says the Tempus column in the Times. But the year-on-year rate of growth in gross profits, or net fee income, slowed to 22 per cent in constant currency rates during the third quarter, from 29 per cent in the first quarter and 30 per cent in the second. While areas such as Asia and Latin America were powering ahead, up 60 per cent and 40 per cent, respectively, on last year, Europe, the Middle East and Africa were up only 23 per cent, while growth has flattened off in the UK entirely. The shares, off by a third since the start of July and down another 5¾p at 358p last night, sell on about 16 times' this year's earnings, but there seems no compelling reason to buy, says the Times.Despite cuts to defence budgets around the world, 120-year-old Avon Rubber is enjoying a new lease of life, according to the Questor column in the Telegraph. Over the past few years the management team at the maker of rubber products has shed struggling divisions such as aerosol gaskets and automotive - which five years ago accounted for three quarters of the business - to focus on the defence and dairy industries. This unlikely pairing has helped to drive an impressive 40pc rise in the company's share price this year, amid turmoil on stock markets. The key product for Avon has become the M50 gas mask. In 2008, the company secured a pivotal deal with the Department of Defense (DoD) to design and manufacture the next generation of gas masks for the US Army, Navy, Air Force and Special Forces. Questor is attracted to Avon by the stability this revenue stream provides and the company's desire to invest in research and development. Buy, the paper recommends.We reiterated our hold stance on YouGov in April as the valuation looked pretty full, according to the Independent. At the time the polling firm was changing hands at just over 51p. And although they rose sharply in subsequent months, flirting with levels well above 60p in early July, the recent market turmoil has been taking its toll. Indeed, at 44.5p, YouGov, which yesterday announced that its adjusted operating profits for the year to July had climbed by nearly 40 per cent, now trades on multiples of under 10 times forward earnings. That compares to around 17 times when we had a look earlier this year. The results show that the market is being far too bearish. It is clearly time to add to our holding. The Independent gives a buy rating.Those market players who have been piling into shares in Jardine Lloyd Thompson in the hopes of some bid action will not thank them, but the board of long-term investor Jardine Matheson have put paid to any such speculation and probably done the board of JLT a favour, says the Tempus column in the Times. Jardine Matheson has tendered for enough shares to take its holding from 30 per cent to a little more than 40 per cent. The indications are that its offer, pitched at 765p, will be taken up by investors speaking for rather more than 10 per cent; the shares were up 3½p at 664½p last night. The shares have recovered from a low of 587p in August; the tender offer is clearly a strong vote of confidence in the JLT management by their biggest shareholder.Meanwhile, the company continues to push into developing markets. Yesterday saw the completion of the £10 million purchase of a controlling interest in Orbital Corredores de Seguros, Chile's fourth-biggest insurance broker. Three of the core areas where JLT operates are construction, cargo and marine, which fit well with the natural resources boom there. That 765p would seem to put a reasonable floor on the price, so shareholders should not be too disappointed if they remain in, says the Times.BCPlease note: Digital Look provides a round-up of news, tips and information that is impacting share prices and the market. Digital Look cannot take any responsibility for information provided by third parties. This is for your general information only as not intended to be relied upon by users in making an investment decision or any other decision. Please obtain a copy of the relevant publication and carry out your own research before considering acting on any of this information.

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