Broker snap: Merchant Secs initiates Falkland Oil at buy

In a research note issued this morning analysts at Merchant Securities initiate coverage of Falklands Oil and Gas with a buy recommendation and a 400p price target. For them this company, "holds the best exploration acreage in the Falkland Islands because its prospects are larger than elsewhere, yet we believe the exploration risks are not greater than elsewhere in the region." More specifically, they believe that the Loligo prospect is likely to be a condensate prospect, just as the Borders & Southern discovery at Darwin was a condensate discovery. They have modelled the prospect based on their estimate that, if successful, it could produce 2.0bn barrels of condensate, which compares to FOGL's estimate of 4.7bn barrels of oil equivalent. Loligo is likely to commence drilling around the end of June or early July 2012 with results announced about 8 weeks later. As well, they anticipate a 'pre-drill catalyst' in that they expect that prior to drilling Loligo the company will farm out 25% of its licence areas to a currently undisclosed party pursuant to a farm-in option agreement. FOGL would receive $60m in cash if the option is exercised in accordance with the base case of the agreement. As of 11:46AM shares of Falkland Oil&Gas are trading flat at 81.25p.AB