* European shares fall
* Washington's Hong Kong bill spurs trade tensions again
* Virgin Money rallies on reassuring outlook
* Wall Street closed for Thanksgiving Day holiday
Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets brought to you by Reuters
stocks reporters and anchored today by Thyagaraju Adinarayan. Reach him on Messenger to share
your thoughts on market moves: rm://thyagaraju.adinarayan.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net
CONSUMERS TO KEEP THE EUROZONE ALIVE (1319 GMT)
It is that time of the year again: predictions season.
As we approach the last month of 2019, economists are busy writing outlooks for the year
ahead. At S&P Global Ratings they think consumers will likely keep things going in the eurozone,
which might register a 1% growth next year, according to a research published today.
"The strong labour market, rising wages, and low inflation will ensure that household
consumption remains resilient," says S&P.
More on 2020 (by S&P):
- Trade tensions and the slowdown in the Chinese and US economies will continue to weigh on
the industrial performance of the bloc - specially in Germany and Italy
- Low rates to give a boost to property prices
- France and Spain will outperform the eurozone thanks to their more services-led economies
- ECB is unlikely to end quantitative easing before 2021 or raise rates before 2022
(Joice Alves)
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CURING FOJI (THE FEAR OF JOINING IN) (1120 GMT)
We have to thank Exane strategists Dennis Jose, Jason Hart and Jeremy Gaudelier for
reminding us that FOMO is not the only acronym in town but there's also FOJI, or the fear of
joining in, which they say seems still to be plaguing investors.
But what's more, they say there are signs the market is starting to cure itself from FOJI
and that a pick up in earnings could bring more fuel to the strong year-to-date rally.
"We think earnings growth could recover to 7% in 2020. And importantly, the ingredients for
a new mini cycle in equities might be materialising," they say, noting that PMIs appear to have
troughed and that stocks still look cheap vs. bonds.
"We have spotted nascent signs that investors have started transitioning to FOMO. This would
be supportive", they add.
(Danilo Masoni)
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UK VOTE: ASSESSING THE IMPACT ON EU CAPITAL GOODS (0916 GMT)
Should investors worry about the impact of the upcoming Dec. 12 UK election on European
capital goods companies?
Probably not too much.
JPMorgan has dune some number crunching and here are its main findings, based on
expectations of a Conservative majority giving a boost to fiscal spending in 2020.
"We see fiscal easing in the UK having only a limited impact on our Capital Goods coverage
with only ~6% of sector revenues generated in the UK and therefore we would expect little change
to underlying demand expectations," analysts at the US bank say.
"For our UK Capital Goods coverage, moves in FX would likely have a bigger impact, though
still not really significant," they add.
JPM sees a move in Sterling to the low $1.30s in the event of a Conservative win, with a
move to $1.35 resulting in an average ~2% downgrade to its 2020 UK Capital Goods earnings.
(Danilo Masoni)
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OPENING SNAPSHOT: TRADE RISKS COME BACK (0838 GMT)
Risk-off: European stocks are off four-year highs this morning as Washington's Hong Kong
bill rattles hopes for a truce in a 16-month long U.S.-China trade war.
Autos and technology are top sectoral fallers, down more than 0.5%.
London's FTSE 100 dips 0.5% as Vodafone and Johnson Matthey go
ex-dividend and miners retreat from recent outperformance.
Among single stocks, Virgin Money has put up a great show, rising 18%, as a
reassuring 2020 outlook offsets worries about dividend cancellation. Traders had called the
shares sharply lower.
(Thyagaraju Adinarayan)
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ON OUR RADAR: REMY, VIRGIN MONEY, TRADE-SENSITIVE SECTORS (0756 GMT)
Stock futures point to a slightly weak open for European bourses as Trump go-ahead for the
Hong Kong bill dashed hopes of a trade truce between U.S. and China. Market activity today is
likely to be subdued as the U.S. is closed for Thanksgiving.
In corporate news, Remy Cointreau missed an already lowered first-half profit
expectation and that's seen pushing the French spirits group's shares 4% lower, according to
traders.
Shares of Clydesdale and Yorkshire Bank owner Virgin Money is seen falling 2% to 3%
after it suspended dividend and reported below-consensus profits.
Among UK small caps, Vitec, which supplies camera and lighting equipment, is seen
opening down 15% after the company said unusually severe de-stocking is likely to hit 2019
results. Marine services provider James Fisher is called 3% to 5% down after weak profit
outlook.
Dealers expect shares of infrastructure group Atlantia to take another hit today on
chatter that Italy's PD may back Luigi Di Maio's proposal to revoke motorway concessions given
to the firm.
(Thyagaraju Adinarayan)
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No record high for Europe today? (0640 GMT)
European stocks are just a few points away from record high levels, but today may not be the
day to achieve that feat as Trump's signature on the Hong Kong bill dashed hopes for a trade
truce between the world's top two economies.
"Just when you think 'phase one' is in the bag...President Trump signed into law legislation
that could bring diplomatic action and economic sanctions against Hong Kong," Chris Bailey,
European strategist for Raymond James, says.
Financial spreadbetters IG expect London's FTSE to open 23 points lower at 7,407,
Frankfurt's DAX to open 26 points lower at 13,261 and Paris' CAC to open 11 points lower at
5,916. U.S. Thanksgiving break is also expected to keep volumes subdued.
The pan-European STOXX 600 closed at 409.81 points on Wednesday, five points below
its 2015 record high.
(Thyagaraju Adinarayan)
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(Reporting by Danilo Masoni, Joice Alves, Julien Ponthus and Thyagaraju Adinarayan)
