* Attack in Nice, Turkey coup plot pummel travel stocks
* Tour operators out of favour, "staycation" plays in
* Thomas Cook hopes for 2016 rebound dashed
* UK-listed travel stocks' performance: http://tmsnrt.rs/29HQStN
By Alistair Smout
LONDON, July 18 (Reuters) - UK travel stocks are slidingagain as they face a perfect storm of political and securityshocks that many predict will keep holidaying Britons at homefor another year at least.
The hopes of tour operators such as Thomas Cook that2016 would see a pick-up in business have been dashed again asthe British school holidays get under way. Its stock price hasnearly halved since the start of this year.
After demand last year was hit by attacks in Tunisia, Egyptand Paris, last week's attack on Bastille Day in Nice and anattempted coup in Turkey have raised the prospect of furthercancellations and another rough summer.
That, combined with a hit to sterling from Britain's vote toleave the European Union, has prompted some investors to looktowards stocks that could benefit from a rise in "staycations"as British tourists look to take domestic breaks.
Thomas Cook was down 1.8 percent by 1421 GMT on Monday, withpeer TUI slipping 2.3 percent, underperforming other travel andleisure stocks as analysts said bookings to Turkey may be hit bythe abortive weekend coup.
After a 4 percent fall in profit for 2015, dented by Tunisiacancellations, Thomas Cook said last November that demand for2016 was ahead of 2015. But even before the latest news fromTurkey, it had acknowledged customers were delaying plans thisyear because of security concerns.
"For me it's a cumulative effect. We had Paris, and thenBrussels, then France again and then a coup... It seems asthough holidaymakers were delaying and hoping to book at thelast minute, so a stock like Thomas Cook will be hit," said MikeIngram, market strategist at BGC Partners.
"Given the depreciation of sterling, given the securityconcerns and given that people might opt for "staycations" atthe last minute and not want to fly, I'd rather be going forstocks like Whitbread."
Whitbread, whose brands include Costa Coffee and budgethotel chain Premier Inn, is down 14 percent year-to-date but hasbounced 9 percent from its post-referendum low.
Thomas Cook is down 48 percent so far in 2016, with TUIGroup down over 20 percent. That compares to just a 9percent fall for the broader Travel and Leisure index.
UK-listed travel stocks performance since 2015: http://tmsnrt.rs/29HQStN
CHANGE OF PLANS
While the sector as a whole was jolted by the June 23referendum, there is some sign that domestically exposed stocksare recovering. Pub chain JD Wetherspoons, whose bossbacked Brexit, and coach company National Express areback above their pre-vote levels.
By contrast, Thomas Cook, with a business model dependent onthose wanting to travel to the sunnier parts of Europe and theMiddle East, is down 13 percent since the vote. Traders saidtour operators would be worse affected than airlines.
"Thomas Cook, for example, is heavily skewed towards Turkey,whereas airlines can benefit from a more geographical spread,"said Atif Latif, director of trading at Guardian Stockbrokers.
"With this being the start of the holiday season andnormally a busy time for tour operators, we could see morepressure as many change travel plans."
TUI, which runs Thomson, also cited instability in theMiddle East and North Africa as affecting its 2015 results. In February it reported a 40 percent drop in bookings to Turkeyafter a suicide bombing there in January.
Travel firms also have to contend with a slump in sterling the wake of the Brexit vote, which has made foreign trips moreexpensive and could further encourage people to holiday at home.
Sterling hit 31-year lows against the dollar and anear-three year low against the euro, which also makes Britainsignificantly cheaper for foreign tourists.
"For the more domestically oriented UK leisure names, theremight be areas where they see uplift," said BGC's Ingram.
"They might benefit both from redirected travel inwards fromabroad, as well as any trend towards "staycations"."
(Reporting by Alistair Smout; Editing by Mark Trevelyan)
