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Sept 1 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% to a three-week high on Friday on a drop in daily output and forecasts for continued hot weather.
Capping those gains was a predicted reduction in gas use next week due in part to the three-day U.S. Labor Day holiday weekend, and forecasts that the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants will remain below highs seen earlier this year due to ongoing maintenance at some facilities.
Front-month gas futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 5.4 cents, or 2.0%, to $2.822 per million British thermal units at 9:57 a.m. EDT (1357 GMT).
For the week, the front-month was up about 11% after falling less than 1% last week.
In Georgia and Florida, there were still over 125,00 homes and businesses without power on Friday in the wake of Hurricane Idalia, according to data from PowerOutage.us. Those figures were down from outage peaks of around 288,000 in Florida and 217,000 in Georgia as utilities restored service.
Energy traders said the power outages were limiting the amount of gas that power generators in those states were burning to produce electricity.
The remains of Idalia were expected to die out in the Atlantic Ocean by the middle of next week. No tropical cyclones were expected to make landfall in the U.S. over the next week, according to the latest forecast from the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC).
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states rose to 102.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in August, up from 102.1 bcfd in July. That compares with a monthly record of 102.3 bcfd in May.
On a daily basis, however, output over the past couple of days was on track to drop by 2.7 bcfd to a preliminary four-month low of 99.2 bcfd on Friday. Energy traders noted that preliminary data - especially start of the month data - is often revised later in the day.
Meteorologists forecast that weather in the lower 48 U.S. states will remain mostly hotter than normal through at least Sept. 16.
LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, will slide from 104.4 bcfd this week to 101.7 bcfd next week due in part to the long holiday weekend before rising to 103.2 bcfd in two weeks, due in part to a forecast increase in LNG exports. The forecasts for this week and next were similar to LSEG's outlook on Thursday.
Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell from an average of 12.7 bcfd in July to 12.3 bcfd in August due mostly to reductions at Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas. That compares with a monthly record of 14.0 bcfd in April.
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Sep 1 Aug 25 Sep 1 average
Forecast Actual Sep 1
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 41 32 55 60
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,156 3,115 2,686 2,926
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 7.9% 8.7%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year
Last Year Average Average
2022 (2017-2021)
Henry Hub 2.74 2.77 7.76 6.54 2.89
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 10.35 11.29 57.90 40.50 7.49
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 13.20 13.41 46.99 34.11 8.95
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year
Norm Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs 6 6 3 7 19
U.S. GFS CDDs 199 200 189 165 142
U.S. GFS TDDs 205 206 192 172 161
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year
Week Last Year Average For
Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 101.4 102.0 101.6 98.8 92.6
U.S. Imports from Canada 7.2 7.2 7.5 8.4 7.8
U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total U.S. Supply 108.5 109.2 109.l 107.2 100.4
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4
U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.9 7.0 7.0 5.1 5.6
U.S. LNG Exports 11.8 12.5 12.8 10.4 6.5
U.S. Commercial 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.9
U.S. Residential 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.9
U.S. Power Plant 46.9 46.3 43.3 42.9 34.9
U.S. Industrial 21.4 21.5 21.4 21.3 21.5
U.S. Plant Fuel 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total U.S. Consumption 83.7 83.4 80.1 79.6 72.5
Total U.S. Demand 103.9 104.4 101.7 97.2 87.0
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam Current Day Prior Day 2022 2021 2020
% of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal
Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual
Apr-Sep 83 83 107 81 103
Jan-Jul 77 77 102 79 98
Oct-Sep 76 76 103 81 95
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended
Sep 1 Aug 25 Aug 18 Aug 11 Aug 4
Wind 5 7 7 7 7
Solar 4 4 4 4 4
Hydro 5 5 6 5 5
Other 2 2 2 2 2
Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0
Natural Gas 47 45 45 45 45
Coal 20 20 19 19 20
Nuclear 18 17 17 17 17
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub <NG-W-HH-SNL> 2.56 2.48
Transco Z6 New York <NG-CG-NY-SNL> 1.43 1.37
PG&E Citygate <NG-CG-PGE-SNL> 3.38 4.46
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) <NG-PCN-APP-SNL> 1.34 1.31
Chicago Citygate <NG-CG-CH-SNL> 2.32 2.33
Algonquin Citygate <NG-CG-BS-SNL> 1.47 1.43
SoCal Citygate <NG-SCL-CGT-SNL> 2.85 6.62
Waha Hub <NG-WAH-WTX-SNL> 2.16 2.21
AECO <NG-ASH-ALB-SNL> 1.89 1.94
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Current Day
New England <EL-PK-NPMS-SNL> 23.00 25.75
PJM West <EL-PK-PJMW-SNL> 25.25 24.50
Ercot North <EL-PK-ERTN-SNL> 117.25 150.00
Mid C <EL-PK-MIDC-SNL> 54.50 69.00
Palo Verde <EL-PK-PLVD-SNL> 38.50 53.00
SP-15 <EL-PK-SP15-SNL> 40.25 66.50
