Berkeley Group Share News (BKG)

* European shares rise 0.4%
* DAX hits record high
* Banks recover from Archegos hit
* Tech lags: Nasdaq futures down

March 30 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of
markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your
thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com

FTSE DIVIDEND TAP TURNED BACK ON (0933 GMT)
After last year's dividend carnage, UK blue chips kicked off
2021 on the right foot with consensus forecasts now showing that
the FTSE 100 is set to deliver its first year of dividend growth
since 2018, according to AJ Bell.
The FTSE is set to deliver a £74.3 billion payout,
enough to equate to a yield of 3.8%. That compares to a payout
of £61.4 billion for last year, the lowest since 2013, AJ Bell
data showed.
Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton are expected to generate the
biggest share of the total dividend increase this year.

Here is an estimate of top dividend payers in 2021:
2021 E 2021 E
Dividend Dividend increase
increase (£ (% FTSE total)
million)
Rio Tinto 2,688 20.9%
BHP Group 1,451 11.3%
HSBC 1,046 8.1%
NatWest Group 969 7.5%
Anglo American 966 7.5%
Barclays 763 5.9%
BT 694 5.4%
Lloyds 659 5.1%
Persimmon 398 3.1%
Glencore 386 3.0%
Source: Company accounts, Marketscreener, consensus analysts’
forecasts (compiled by AJ Bell)

Things are looking promising so far. In the first quarter of
the year, 42 firms have declared or made a dividend payment and
12 more have returned to the dividend list.

FTSE 100 dividends
£ million £ million £ million
CUT KEPT RESTORED
2020 37,300 28,010 2,715
2021 2,766 19,814 5,027
TOTAL 40,066 47,824 7,742
Source: Company accounts (compiled by AJ Bell)

Additionally, Barclays, Berkeley Group, CRH, Ferguson,
Rightmove, Sage and Standard Chartered have announced share
buybacks "to further top up cash returns to investors," says
Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.
"The worst may indeed be over for those investors who are
seeking income from UK equities, although they will still want
to see the vaccination programme beat off the virus and the
global economy gather some real traction before they truly begin
to relax," says Mould.

(Joice Alves)
*****


MORE VALUE AND CYCLICALS (0848 GMT)
Markets look less and less worried about rising bond yields,
while they are figuring out how to make the most of the future
economic scenario.
Berenberg sees U.S. bond yields at 2.5% at the end of 2021
and at above 3% in 2022 with the U.S. GDP 8% being higher than
pre-crisis highs in 2022.
The best way to be protected against rising interest rates
is to make sure that portfolios are not underweight cyclical and
value sectors, Berenberg analysts say.
Tech stocks and defensives “have predominantly had negative
correlations with U.S. 10-year yields since 2012.”
So it seems that the same old rules still work in a
post-pandemic scenario.
Because let’s face it, equities appreciate when the economy
grows and fall during a recession, “unless inflation and
interest rates rise dramatically.”
U.S. President Joe Biden will outline how he would pay for
his $3 trillion to $4 trillion plan to tackle America's
infrastructure needs on Wednesday.
Berenberg suggests staying exposed to commodities as the
combination of recovering demand coupled with a weak U.S. dollar
“should continue to support commodities prices.”
On the earnings front “U.S. and global EPS growth of around
25% cumulative is likely in 2021-22, with risks skewed to the
upside.”
Pre-tax corporate margins, which are around post-1980 highs,
should protect U.S. and European companies against rising cost
pressures.

(Stefano Rebaudo)
*****


FINANCIALS ROAR BACK, DAX EYES 15K (0740 GMT)
It's clearly risk on at the open in Europe with financials
powering broad-based gains and the DAX hitting a new record
high, fast approaching the 15,000 mark for the first time ever.
It looks investors have been quick in buying the Archegos
dip, sending banks into a complete reversal to lead sectoral
gainers in the region, following Monday's pain.
The bank index is up 2% at pixel time. Credit
Suisse is stabilising, up more than 1% after the
Archegos default dragged it down nearly 14% in its biggest drop
in one year.
UBS, Deutsche Bank are up too, as
concerns over the downfall of the U.S. hedge fund evaporate.
Tech is a weak spot as the recovery narrative
regains steam and yields hit new highs, just ahead of Biden's
multi-trillion-dollar infrastructure bill.
Nasdaq futures meantime are down 0.6%.
(Danilo Masoni)
*****


LOOKING PAST ARCHEGOS (0704 GMT)
Risk-on sentiment is timidly reappearing. Hopes are that the
Archegos fiasco will just spoil the quarterly numbers at a few
big banks without inflicting any systemic global damage.
And with the policy backdrop supportive of a recovery from
the Covid-19 downturn, bond yields have regained momentum,
Germany's DAX equity index looks set for another new historic
peak at the open, extending its record-breaking run.
And 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, back above 1.75%, have
just set a 14-month high.
U.S. futures are subdued however. As President Joe Biden
readies a multi-trillion dollar infrastructure plan, higher
Treasury yields have taken the dollar to four-month highs,
investors are booking profits off pricey tech stocks and looking
for plays better geared to economic recovery.
On the Archegos front, pressure eased a tad off Nomura
shares which on Monday endured a 16% drop, while in Europe, eyes
are on Credit Suisse following a fall of nearly 14%. Both warned
of major losses from lending to Archego for derivatives trades.
Investors will wait to see if the events could scupper a
planned one billion Swiss franc ($1.08 billion) share buyback by
Credit Suisse.
Elsewhere in corporate news, a deeply discounted cash call
is set to hit tower company Cellnex.
Key developments that should provide more direction to
markets on Tuesday:
• Japanese retail sales fell for the third straight month in
February as households kept a lid on expenditure
• BOJ Governor offered a cautiously optimistic view of the
economy, saying global and Japanese growth are picking up thanks
to aggressive stimulus measures
• The Federal Reserve is "a long way from raising interest
rates at this point," Fed Governor Christopher Waller said
• Britain's Royal Mail to pay a one-off dividend for
the year ending March: Imperial Brands maintained its full-year
adjusted profit growth forecast
• German flying taxi startup Lilium to float on U.S. markets
via a reverse merger with blank-cheque firm Qell Acquisition
Corp, valuing the combined company at $3.3 billion
• Fed Deputy chair for supervision, Randall Quarles is to
speak.
• Swedish National Bank Stefan Ingves Speaks 1500 GMT
• New York Fed President John Williams 1800 GMT.
• Emerging markets: Chile central bank meets
• German prelim CPI
• US consumer confidence

(Danilo Masoni)
*****


EUROPE SEEN ON THE UP (0629 GMT)
European shares are set to open up slightly this morning as
worries over the Archegos default ease while the policy backdrop
remains favourably supportive of a strong economic recovery.
Futures on the EuroSTOXX50 and FTSE indices are up 0.2-0.3%
following a choppy session on Monday, while S&P 500 futures
however were trading around parity but above Monday lows.
Over in Asia, shares were mixed, while rekindled concerns
about inflation pushed bond yields higher.

(Danilo Masoni)
*****