Bank Of Georgia Group Share Price (BGEO)

Having sold out at 5050p, I'm tempted to buy back in here for a medium term hold to see how things settle down and the Ameribank acquisition starts to play out. But I can see risk of a significant further drop in SP if negative impact of the 'Russian Law' or general damage to Georgia's economy (tourism etc) as a result of the adverse press. Equally, if the opposition were to get organised as a cohesive pre-EU coalition which managed to oust Georgian Dream in the October elections, then I could see a massive rebound in sentiment. For now, dividends will have diminished in real terms as a UK shareholder, given that it is priced in GEL and the recent weakening of GEL.

I would welcome anyone else's considered thoughts! GLA

IMHO the "Russian Law" is simply a tool to enable Ivanishvili and fellow oligarchs to prevent any further integration with Europe. Their primary motive is that 'unorthodox' financial arrangements thrive better under authoritarian regimes with tight controls over critics than they do in democracies. But the GD also enjoy the support of traditionalists - especially the older generation in rural areas - who fear that Georgian values are under threat from liberal Western ideologies (e.g. the LBTQ+ movement). Given their majority, I think GD will see their law passed. We can then expect volatility in the banking SPs, but I don't think their businesses will be much affected in the medium/long term (because a pro-Russia outcome likely will attract more Russian money to offset less European money, and vice-versa).

Completely disagree. The president's "veto" was always expected, and is purely symbolic as can be overruled by Georgian Dream, which is what they currently are showing every intent of doing, thus signing the "Russian Law" into law. The protests are about that, and are what persuaded Georgian Dream to discontinue attempts to bring the law in last year. If the law is voted in as expected, then expect another significant drop in SP. If the mass protests and/or EU and USA pressure does persuade Georgian Dream to drop the law (again), then expect a SP rise, but with the continued risk of a possible Russian invasion (as with Abkhazia and South Ossettia) a material ongoing risk to Georgia's future stability (and thus the SP of BGEO).

This could gravitate back up now it is calming down a bit and El Presidente has interjected. The copycat protests are a global thing at the moment so has little to do with government decisions.

Manfor, you may be right on currency risk - certainly it can't be ignored. It's interesting though that 10 years ago the GEL was stronger at 1.72 and 5 years ago about the same exchange rate as now so hard to say what normal is.