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Also I am expecting a wave of consolidation through 2020 and 2021
survival of the fittest and the ones who survive will be goliath cash cows
yep, update has always been the 30th Jan so expect nothing less again. we have had a few impatient selling so what 10K yesterday is nothing and they will be cursing soon enough.
buyers will come soon enough prior to the update
TICK TOCK TICK TOCK
Update coming - that's guaranteed
We will see some upward momentum through to end of month
You would think if good news was available they would get it out , after all its just going to be an update, we will not see the figures till march, pi/s walking away the rest sit and wait.
Interesting
I see Brook Green Supply have done something similar with SCMI as reported today....
SSE to OVO and Engie to Octopus... both have excluded business accounts. I conclude that whilst M&A continues, business energy accounts are still more important to companies than domestic...
Good weekend all.
I anticipate the update to be w/c 27th personally. If SP can stay around this level at least, and assuming the update is in line wiyh what mgmt have said, I'm hoping we can start a proper SP recovery to where things were before FCA. In any case, good to see sustained trading in Yu for now
judging by the the buys this morning they are taking a chance that they will release the update on monday, well there's a chance of course but to me it's this monday or next? and if the update is promising and making head way then we will look for a sharp re-rate here as its very much under valued even going on last years figures. will be topping up my self. The news should be good in my view as everything that's been done is to increase shareholders value here.
Relatively quiet trading today compared with the last few days. Like others, I eagerly await the next update but am a LTH in any case. My expectation of the update is to be just what mgmt has said. I don't expect profits but a marked improvement and an insight to show Yu will become profitable in 2020 or early 2021 at the latest. I'm comfortable with the company and how it is run. At a macro level, UK wholesale energy prices have fallen throughout 2019 and continue to do so. Gas is well supplied and wind power has come a long way. Next few years wholesale prices in the UK are forecast to stay that way. This helps profit margins. There is a real push for smart meters and EV charging in the UK that should play into Yu's favour. The new hedging facility was a masterstroke. Water is another growth area. All in all I don't see why Yu can't hit its margin targets. The SP should follow suit.
I bought a few more today.
I like the Ceo.
Wallace and Gromit face waiting for results.
each day with sells. Something that never used to happen in the past.
This is primed for breakout soon!!
Having considered recent news flow I have decided to get in here. They are saying a blended gross margin of high single digits, which I take as say below 5% for the historic contract book and comfortably above 10% for the new stuff. Once the old contracts are expired and revenue growth kicks in, when profits arrive the profits will be substantial (especially on an eps basis). With eps in the 30p to 50p range and a modest PER of 15 to 20, this is a real multi bagger. A loss is inevitable for H2 2019, which once announced may plunge the share price - a time to buy more should that be the case. However, the market should be wiser to reality and be looking forward, so I think any downside risk is limited. I think 2020 will be break even-ish, with better gross margin but offset with higher marketing sales costs / investment for revenue growth to resume in 2021. Expecting 2020 revenue to be similar to 2019 (as the company has already indicated this).
And back we go. Feeling more relaxed every day here.
GLAH
indeed , a few will start sniffing soon enough.
It may well be subdued this morning - and when the sp holds the buyers will come back in. It will be interesting to see if this base has any strength. Here’s hoping....
Matt
few sellers trying to drive the price down and get back in cheaper, sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't
Today will be very interesting,
over the last few days we have seen a few holders weakening and selling out especially yesterday with 2 large sells 50K and 60K but the MMs struggled all day with the waves of buying.
not unexpected a got hit with a rapid 30K of sells at the death to drag us down to 2% up on the day.
Bullish in my eyes are we got shot of over 100K in sellers and still finished up
today is key do we get more profit takers or do the bulls see this as an opportunity to shut out yesterdays sells like when we took the trip down to 110p last week.
we are another day closer to the YE update lots of talk of H2 being actually profitable, I am on the side lines on this and await the figures but looking for the outlook as 2020 was always the year the changes and reset in 2018/19 would take full effect coupled with the new arrangement with Smartest.
long and strong 2020 is the year of YU.
Adam. My sentiments exactly. I am not expecting miracles but as you put it baby steps this coming year building strong foundations
They will surprise, Bobby is fool if they don’t
Well the fact that they refer to it as a loss makes it fairly clear that it turning positive is very unlikely. Not long to wait to find out! Anyway, I'd rather expect less then receive more than the other way around. There is nothing to suggest this will have miraculously turned a profit. The problem with AIM is that people work themselves into a frenzy with unrealistic expectations and when they naturally don't happen then there is a huge sell off and undoes all the hard work. Baby steps.
Statement for H1
EBITDA loss in H2 2019 expected to be significantly lower and continued progression in FY 2020 as the historic contract book continues to expire. We made a decision to temper the rate of revenue growth as we implemented the new processes and focussed on improving margins. We are now in a position to resume our focus on growth utilising the solid foundations in place.
Now the word significantly is key , and I would already have had a pretty good idea in September and made sure FY is peach so I would not be surprised If H2 19 was close to , at break even or even Ebitda positive. We shall soon find out
Sorry meant H1 and H2 not quarters
They already indicated second half would be significantly better than q1, q1 they lost due to the legacy contracts and tight margins, would be wonderful if q2 was even breakeven as that in itself implies q1 20 would move us back in the black..
Game changing stuff, cannot myself see q2 19 as profitable, but anything close the break even is worth double the SP as 2020 would be the year.