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Started: andmillsy, 23 Apr 2024 15:33
Last post: TerryM1, 27 Jun 2024 23:46
Up a bit more, Numerco 84.50/86.50
After recent fall up a small amount, Numerco 83.50/85.00 up 0.73
Up a small amount, Numerco 85.00/86.00 up 0.5
Spot seems to have ended in downward run
Numerco 84.00/86.00 up 2.5
Perhaps because motley fools just stated Uranium is on a downward path, you have got to love those guys.
Up a little, Numerco 91.00/92.25
Started: andmillsy, 26 Jun 2024 10:01
Last post: andmillsy, 26 Jun 2024 10:01
Does anyone have a perspective on some of occassional discussions on x.com about FIP (fund implied price)?
For example https://x.com/GoForBull/status/1805591771067596950
This is being discussed as a leading indicator for uranium stock prices and if it falls then uranium stock prices will follow it down. Surely it is a lagging indicator and the discount to NAV it represents is already baked into SPUT (and YCA) share price ? Any ideas ?
Anyone been buying down here ?
Started: Jeffus888, 19 Jun 2024 06:26
Last post: snooz, 21 Jun 2024 16:03
Some links to support the other comments:
https://www.gov.uk/individual-savings-accounts/if-you-die
https://ifamagazine.com/investing-in-aim-shares-within-an-isa-for-iht-planning/
BPR... sounds like not the sort of questions for rando's on the internet, but I'll say I reckon no as BPR is relevant for _unlisted_ shares:
https://www.gov.uk/business-relief-inheritance-tax
Would YCA shares qualify for BPR, since it is not an actual mining company?
Some AIM shares are exempt from Inheritance tax, whether or not they are held in an ISA.
What is an AIM ISA?
An AIM ISA is a portfolio of AIM shares. Within an ISA, your profits are free from income tax, capital gains tax and dividend tax. Alongside these tax efficiencies, investing in AIM shares means you can also be exempt from inheritance tax (IHT), making AIM ISAs – also known as AIM IHT ISAs – attractive tax wrappers.
AIM shares need to qualify for Business Property Relief (BPR) and be held for more than two years at the time of death to qualify for IHT exemption.
BPR is generally not available through funds, so to qualify you must be invested directly in shares - though there are exceptions.
I guess you are asking regarding them being held in an ISA.
Money held in ISAs is not exempt from Inheritance Tax.
Orano at Risk of Losing Niger Uranium Mine Sought by Russia.
Bloomberg: https://archive.ph/uer5T
https://republicofmining.com/2024/06/17/orano-at-risk-of-losing-niger-uranium-mine-sought-by-russia-by-katarina-hoije-bloomberg-news-june-15-2024/
I've said it before but... I'm convinced Orano are going to have to find some new supply.
Started: TerryM1, 17 May 2024 09:56
Last post: TerryM1, 4 Jun 2024 11:02
"Note that there's no stamp duty on YCA either as it is on AIM."
This is true but and I have been thinking about trading a small amount of YCA but I am having trouble predicting/guessing the discount, however the spot price trend seems to easier to predict/guess but discount make a large amount of the short term movement in the SP.
In my previous post I said
"so far today $54.62 - $56.24 which not usual."
Should have said not unusual.
> I do this on the US market where spread is small, no stamp duty
Note that there's no stamp duty on YCA either as it is on AIM.
"It's not worth trading Uranium."
IMO it is worth trading Cameco, I mostly invest but now and then trade out some of my holding and back in when the price is right. I don't always call it right but do enough of the time, fully back in now after a couple of trades yesterday. I do this on the US market where spread is small, no stamp duty and low charges with II, sometimes free. I find the SP is quite volatile with a decent range. e.g. so far today $54.62 - $56.24 which not usual. So far have not made much on just the trading as only doing this with around 1/3 of my Cameco investment but a bit of fun and enough to make it worth while.
It's not worth trading Uranium.
There is always the caveat,, unless you have nothing better to be doing.
These days I have plenty of better things to be doing than trading.
Buy, hold and sitting over 100% up with little 'work' after doing the initial research.
Thank you for the refinement I would have done a bit of polishing but currently away on holiday and daringly without a laptop!
Started: andmillsy, 4 Jun 2024 07:46
Last post: andmillsy, 4 Jun 2024 07:46
On 3 June 2024, it took delivery of 1,526,717 lb of U3O8 from Kazatomprom at the Orano storage facility in France
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/YCA/delivery-of-1-526-717-lb-of-u3o8/16501148
Started: snooz, 3 Jun 2024 16:48
Last post: snooz, 3 Jun 2024 16:48
Cameco's monthly figures for May are released:
https://www.cameco.com/invest/markets/uranium-price
2024: Jan $72.00 , Feb $75.00 , Mar $77.50 , Apr $77.50 , May $78.50
Not sure what can be said other than what's been said many times already, which is: this is not a transparent market.
Started: ancientarcher, 31 May 2024 09:04
Last post: ancientarcher, 31 May 2024 09:04
Does anyone know what criteria YCA follows to buy U3O8 in the spot market? There is an annual contract with Kazatomprom for $100mn worth of yellow cake but does YCA buy in the spot market like SPUT (Sprott Uranium Trust) does?
If yes, where does the company publish this information?
Started: andmillsy, 28 May 2024 16:17
Last post: andmillsy, 28 May 2024 16:17
Some conversation on twitter about new long term U price to be published this month https://x.com/CycleInvestor/status/1795465270997172252
For those not on x.com - the historical long term U price from 2020 is worth a look
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1F46yQHVeVOq6K1ScTo8As89HVX83MTyw/view?usp=sharing
Started: TerryM1, 7 May 2024 09:28
Last post: LesBoy, 12 May 2024 17:46
Thanks for that, snooz; much appreciated.
> https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/06/goldman-bullish-on-nuclear-power-sees-upside-for-this-uranium-play.html
> But behind paywall.
Content:
Cameco , one of the world’s largest publicly traded uranium miners, is positioned for long-term growth despite lackluster first-quarter results, as Western power companies seek secure nuclear supply chains, according to Goldman Sachs. Goldman has raised Cameco’s 12-month stock price target by $1 to $56, implying 15.7% upside from Friday’s close. Shares of the Canadian miner fell more than 7% after the company reported a first-quarter loss of $7 million on April 30, down from the $119 million profit in the year-ago period. Cameco then bounced 6% to recoup most of those losses through Friday’s close. CCJ YTD mountain CCJ 3-mo chart “We continue to see CCJ as a key means of gaining exposure to the entire value chain of uranium,” Goldman analysts lead by Neil Mehta told clients in a note Monday. Uranium prices have been on a tear over the past 12 months, with the Global X Uranium ETF (URA) up 53% during that period. Though Cameco’s sales of 7.3 million pounds of uranium in the quarter missed guidance of 8.25 million pounds, the company maintained its full-year guidance of 32 million pounds to 34 million pounds. Cameco’s stock is still up about 16% for the year and nearly 80% over the past 12 months. “We continue to believe that an increased need to source volumes from lower geopolitical risk jurisdictions and from low cost providers is likely to drive a migration of imports from Canada and as a result from Cameco, driving both volume and price benefits for the company,” Mehta and his team told clients. Governments around the world increasingly view nuclear power as a key pillar of the energy transition because the technology can provide reliable carbon-free energy at a time when electricity demand is rising. Western countries are seeking secure supplies of uranium to support a nuclear buildout, rather than relying on Russia or neighboring Kazakhstan. The U.S. Senate passed legislation to completely ban imports of Russian low-enriched uranium in 2028. Power companies are required to seek alternative sources of uranium 90 days after President Joe Biden signs the legislation, unless the secretary of energy grants a waiver. The waivers would expire in 2028
Started: YCA_700p_2023, 3 May 2024 14:38
Last post: YCA_700p_2023, 3 May 2024 14:38
"Environment and Energy Security Minister Gilberto Pichetto said Thursday that the government aims to pass the necessary legislation to make Italy's return to nuclear power possible by the end of the current parliamentary term.
Italy closed its nuclear plants in 1990 after the 1987 referendum on atomic energy following the Chernobyl disaster.
However, Premier Giorgia Meloni's administration says this policy should be revised, given that nuclear energy has a low carbon footprint and there is a need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to meet European and international targets for combating the climate crisis.
The country is also looking to boost its energy security following the war caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
"Yes, we'll give it our all," Pichetto told Radio 24 when asked if the legislative framework for nuclear energy could be changed by the end of parliament.
"This is this mandate of the government and of parliament."
"I am acting via a working group that must take care of the judicial framework. "
Link: https://www.ansa.it/english/news/politics/2024/05/02/law-for-return-to-nuclear-by-end-of-this-parliament-pichetto_13c0ae18-efaa-4876-876a-bcbce0022a78.html
Started: YCA_700p_2023, 3 May 2024 14:34
Last post: YCA_700p_2023, 3 May 2024 14:34
"It's taken 17 years, but uranium's record price of US$146/lb set in 2007 could soon be passed with Citi, a leading investment bank, forecasting $151/lb as its bull case price for the nuclear fuel"
Link: https://www.mining-journal.com/miner-s-right/opinion/4204584/russian-uranium-ban-drive-price-record-usd151-lb
Started: YCA_700p_2023, 3 May 2024 11:38
Last post: YCA_700p_2023, 3 May 2024 11:38
"Data center developers in Northern Virginia are asking utility Dominion Energy Inc. for as much power as several nuclear reactors can generate, in the latest sign of how artificial intelligence is helping drive up electricity demand.
Dominion regularly fields requests from developers whose planned data center campuses need as much as “several gigawatts” of electricity, Chief Executive Officer Bob Blue said Thursday during the company’s first-quarter earnings call. A gigawatt is roughly the output of a nuclear reactor and can power 750,000 homes."
Link: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-02/data-centers-now-need-a-reactor-s-worth-of-power-dominion-says
Started: masplin, 3 May 2024 08:11
Last post: masplin, 3 May 2024 08:11
First premum close in a very long time. 200,000 lb bought yesterday $53mio cash
Started: andmillsy, 2 May 2024 09:15
Last post: andmillsy, 2 May 2024 09:15
Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/KAP/kap-s-1q24-operations-and-trading-update/16451187
2024 prodution guidance unchanged
As previously reported, western and northern regions of Kazakhstan faced severe floods. Even though the situation has stabilized in most affected regions, the consequences of the natural disaster are significant. The Company reiterates that the flood situation has not affected its uranium mining, processing and transportation activities to date. All Kazatomprom enterprises continue to operate without any disruptions.
Sulphuric acid production (a previous source of U production delays) - pushed back
Considering the restructuring procedures, as well as delays in the timing of approval of project design documentation, the Company expects the completion of the construction and the start of production at the TQZ LLP to be postponed from 2026 to 2027.
Started: YCA_700p_2023, 1 May 2024 13:05
Last post: YCA_700p_2023, 1 May 2024 13:05
"The U.S. Senate approved on Tuesday legislation to bar imports of Russian uranium, as the United States continues to seek to disrupt Russia's efforts in its war against Ukraine.
The Senate passed the measure by unanimous consent, meaning that no senators objected to it. The House of Representatives passed the bill in December.
The legislation would ban the imports 90 days after enactment. It contains waivers in case there were supply concerns for domestic reactors."
Reuters link: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-approves-bill-ban-russian-uranium-imports-2024-05-01/
Bloomberg link: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-30/senate-passes-russian-uranium-import-ban-sending-bill-to-biden
ZeroHedge link: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/senate-passes-ban-russian-uranium-imports-risking-havoc-and-soaring-price-uranium-markets
Started: SGD27, 5 Feb 2024 13:14
Last post: SGD27, 22 Apr 2024 11:46
Episode 208 :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WfFIuF9gqas
Started: andmillsy, 17 Nov 2023 15:16
Last post: SGD27, 15 Apr 2024 17:39
Numerco 8850/9100
Numerco up a little 8850/9000
Further step up on numerco 8800/9000
Numerco 88.00/89.50
ATM ...
Started: SGD27, 9 Apr 2024 22:16
Last post: SGD27, 9 Apr 2024 22:16
Dustin Garrow - new interview with Lucijan Valkovic ("triANGLE INVESTOR") :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u4ohOwaylXQ
Started: TerryM1, 5 Apr 2024 22:36
Last post: TerryM1, 5 Apr 2024 22:36
Started: Jay053, 15 Mar 2024 15:29
Last post: SGD27, 19 Mar 2024 20:30
More Crux :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iIZ-MJW62Jc
Interview with Tribeca Nuclear Energy Opportunities Portfolio Manager, Guy Keller
Another brilliant video from Dustin Garrow, he has such a depth of knowledge of the uranium market and contracting.
Thanks Jay053, and another relevant Crux interview just in :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzQ2qsL1SMo
Started: SEA7, 19 Mar 2024 20:03
Last post: SEA7, 19 Mar 2024 20:05
Term Markets
Utilities may be unwilling to pay triple-digit prices in the spot market but when it comes to securing medium term supply, from sources other than Russia, they are indeed willing.
Ongoing uncertainty over Russian imports only steels their resolve.
TradeTech’s term price indicators remain at US$100/lb (mid-term) and US$75/lb (long).
Https://fnarena.com/index.php/2024/03/19/uranium-week-buyers-strike/
Weekly Reports | Mar 19 2024
The spot uranium price fell sharply last week as sellers became more agitated.
-Uranium spot price falls -US$7/lb
-Kazatomprom warns of lack of inventory
-Still no news on Russian uranium sanctions
The recent price fall is attributed to two main factors, TradeTech notes, and they are both related to the psychological impact of triple digits.
When the spot price crossed the US$100/lb mark, utilities, who are not major spot market participants at the best of times, declined to buy at such prices. Speculative entities, now holding vast amounts of physical material, saw triple digits as a good place to take profits, having spent years amassing their inventories.
But even as prices fell back into the nineties, and speculative volumes were cleared, utilities showed little interest, and sellers, mostly intermediaries, became frustrated and started lowering prices. Five transactions were reported last week at prices between US$90 and US$84/lb.
Started: Rogue_rader, 14 Mar 2024 12:57
Last post: TheThinker, 14 Mar 2024 15:12
Tradingeconomics.com/forecast/commodity
Uranium as a commodity set to rise this year. YCA sp moving forwards depends not only on commodity price but also on how they set themselves to manage the business. The recent drop seems unjustified in the light of long term demand for Uranium so I can't help but conclude MMs are at play. I'm looking at ETFs now such as URA. www.globalxetfs.com/funds/ura/ This will give me broader exposure to the commodity. URA has over 20% in CCO and only 3.65% in YCA. This tells me all I need to know. If any of you are tempted to use these futures ETFs beware the 'contango' effect which can erode your capital when contracts roll. The opposite is 'backwardation'. Best of Luck to those invested here but for now I'm looking at exposure to the commodity a different way. TT
Rogue_Rader - Interesting.....
also found https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/thoughts-on-hedging-uranium-exposure?post=433113
Analysis of Uranium price and YCA.L : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJY-FlGd9NI