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Just ask.
Is it right that CB has said that it will include working out using 3 different levels of POC?
What's your point? It would be very instructive to see the economic model represented at a range of copper prices.
Have no point.
Was just asking, if what mentioned was right.
In an interview just after 1,1mt RC RNS, I'm sure he said they would be using PC at 7K 8K 9K and 10K POC to see what the results were showing.
He didnt mention a POC above 10K
Thanks
A444
On that mine shows up economical at around $8/8.5K then on how it looks like POC, is going thet that will be a very big positive for sale in 2023.
At 4min mentions 7k 8k 9k 10k copper price
https://audioboom.com/posts/8204540-midweek-takeaway-with-colin-bird-executive-chairman-of-xtract-resources-aim-xtr
AND another interview
At 17m 30 sec mentions $8K $9K and $10k copper
https://audioboom.com/posts/8201622-midweek-takeaway-with-colin-bird-executive-chairman-of-xtract-resources-aim-xtr
So here’s the question…. Will either publication of Q3 gold revenue (must be due soon, surely) or the pit model/ economic model (Feb?)move the SP? Or is XTR’s credibility so low now, that we won’t see any real movement until a deal is finally announced? Either way, I’m so underwater now I may as well wait for the endgame. But it would improve my angst if we saw a rise to the 4-5p level by end Q1. Is this likely?
Butler
My best guess is.......
Q3 alluvial results will have very little if any change to the sp. They will probably be between 50kg and 70kg.
This is distinct to the much more important FB hard rock income.
First report of FB income should see the sp rise even if its not as much as we hoped for due to processing of low grade ore first. It will show we have an income stream started and one that will keep increasing. No idea by what % sp will rise but I think we should be back to 2.5p to 3p range depending on how good the initial results are. Commercial production is not FULL production. That will happen by early Q2 imho then we should see some sp appreciation.
The release of the financial model should see a big rise in the sp assuming we are economic at circa $8500? If its showing economic at 10K then I can't see the market liking that, but I also can't see the sp going down much as we seem to be prices for Armageddon scenario at this sp anyway :)
If its economic at a price lower than the POC at time of release, and the POC could be 9K by the time the model is produced (or more to the point when its released as it may be held back awaiting higher POC) then we may see us back to 4p+. I would then hope for a slow sp climb as continuous news from April to end 2023 implies that we are being positioned for a sale
That's all IMHO and my best guess...but you did ask :)
Just to finish off and complete the prediction.....
SP back up to 8p to 10p by last 2023 and any buy out will be at a 25% to 40% premium to sp - so a buy-out of circa 10p to 14p by late 2023 / early 2024
Many thanks Andrew. That would do nicely. Hope your predictions are spot on!
Andrew
I posted an alternative and more science based analysis of the share price projection factoring recent and projected developments.
It appeared on the other channel apologies for those who also peruse the dark side and for whom it is a repeat
'Twas the night before Christmas, when all through the house
Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse;
The assays were back and filed with great care
In hopes that 2mt soon would be there;
The shareholders were dumbstruck and all sh*t their beds,
When Bird's 1.1mt @ 0.22 messed with their heads;
Has the Bird at the helm got us all in the cr*p?
Or was there a chance that a deal could be had?
A decision to mine caused some uneasy chatter
Could African income really solve that matter?
Anglo American said "Exercise option? Cheerio and goodnight"
Then the copper shortage began to bite as $5/lb roared into sight
Desperate majors chased the Bird with great zeal
With cheque books and pens poised to strike a deal
When Newcrest and BHP began a bidding affair
With the winner emerging at 40 pence a share.
Very good Andy !
I hope the last line proves to be correct :)
Dani
I'm assuming your question was for me andI certainly wouldn't be so rude.
Future sell price of BR divided by number of shares in issue at time of sale = notional value per share of sale in example below I chose 40p for shock, awe, humour and controversial impact.
With some rough assumptions .... considering outstanding warrants, options etc then let's assume number of shares in issue =1bn at future sale date. Today its about 800m shares in issue approximately.
So the very hypothetical sell price for BR in the mythical example is 1bn shares x 40p so £400m.
I could have said for the last line
"with the winner emerging with a to purchase price of £400m" however I found the rhyme and stanza difficult to reconcile.
Please note the choice of 40p per share (aka £400m) caused a challenging ethical dilemma this was resolved by consuming a copious amount of alcohol
Andy formally Andrew but not 4444
All very interesting and totally academic!
What I really want for Christmas is some FACTS.
Live in hope for 2023.
Merry Christmas everyone.
Lovely poem Andymillsy - I hope you are right at 40p.
At the end of the day, we still have 1.3 MT CuEq in the ground and I expect both copper and gold prices to go up considerably in the medium term. Am down but haven't sold a bean but I take this recent slide as a lesson to take profits when you can.
Anyway, thank you to all contributors who make this one of the best and most informative BBs, and that includes Steve4077, who I believe has been a little unfairly blamed for the sp slide when it was the miss on the (bloated) expectations of a 2 MT Cu target that was really to blame.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all!
Z
In the space of a good few months, we have gone from supposedly, a PFS not being a prerequisite to a sale, before the decision to mine was the preferred option to trigger the buy back. To now, it would seem a necessity that AAL, expect to see, and that Xtract will have to provide to support the DTM. Ok, to be fair then, it was always going to be that a PFS was a requirement as for as long as I can recall, the hope was for the DTM and the 2mt threshold were to be concurrent to put to AA.
As long as the economic mining study shows good potential then, they will at some point in the new year, further commission Optimal mining solutions (would assume) to do a PFS. What we do know is they are essential to justify continued investment as it would reflect the increasing economic and technical knowledge gained from data gathered to date. Further to that though, a PFS is a thorough preliminary assessment of all the important elements of the project going forward from environmental and social impacts to the business end, with estimated costs of technologies etc.
Not to be underestimated, it is a serious undertaking. As for cost of a PFS, a simple search would imply anything from 0.5% up to 2.5% of overall project value and can take from 3-5 months to complete. I’m fairly certain that some of the extra drilling particularly to the recently converted indicated parcel of RC will in turn and in part, need to convert further to measured resource. A criteria of the mineral estimate inputs for a PFS. No surprise there, the extra drilling was anticipated as far back as early august after the completion of phase 2.
Feels like the project has already turned more serious now. Certainly on from avocados and onions when I initially thought, what the hell have I invested in? A copper porphyry play or a game of supermarket sweep? So I for one am looking foreword to a far less speculative year ahead, as the company consolidates and further grows both sides of the business in the coming year. What is clear from current shareholder sentiment though, we need far better transparency, consistency in timing of news releases and professionalism through the PR that’s released going forward so a new influx of investor that will have the confidence to invest as old money gets opportunity to get out. Unless that belief returns and soon. Cue the impending economic mining study. After all, BR is the primary asset in the stable that has the ‘most’ potential to drive up the market cap short/mid term.
Eyes wide open going into the new year, just glad ‘22 is almost over, and hoping the Micky Mouse way of promoting is finally over too! It’s not a joke anymore where people’s hard earned money is at stake. All in still and happy to be.
Interesting analysts view on how better environmental, in particular, and also social and government acceptances of new mines will have on the these projects lower carbon footprints that will ‘trump’ just strong economic projects where there isn’t high voltage power already available for example, so with no solar and wind power to balance the grid. So less option for electric drills, loaders and trucks that will impact the carbon footprint that will ultimately influence obtaining mining permits for new world mines. So it would certainly imply that BR, which does have a HV power line close by and is in a politically stable jurisdiction with good social acceptance and a government that supports mining could be well sought after.
From 15min30 sec but interesting throughout
https://youtu.be/nKM3gzMC4OY
Just to add NSW are actively involved in reducing emissions with a climate and energy action plan.
https://www.energy.nsw.gov.au/nsw-plans-and-progress/major-state-projects/shift-renewables
If the project advances to pre feasibility study level, this will asses many different elements including technologies and environmental and social impacts.
Showing the potential of, and more so the importance of a low carbon footprint, will add more clout to CB’s rhetoric of the importance of jurisdiction.