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I think it is a much simpler explanation. Colin is waiting for the copper price to rise before announcing anything. When you have an asset like BR, with an NPV that is heavily dependent on copper price, it doesn't make sense to sell it now when the copper price trajectory is upwards,
"In whose interest is it to keep AA's interest (if it exists) from shareholders during such a period"
That was also my thinking. I may be wrong, but I don't think there is a legal obligation to keep silent as other companies have declared before that other parties could be interested in buying out the co.
The theory that no news is good news may well be true and negotiations could be going on behind the scenes, but the less palatable alterative view is that AA or anyone else, wants more to be proven up ot a higher POC to consider making an offer so nothing is happening.
Just relistened to the latest podcast and picked up on this comment 'it's likely we will designing an open pit'
Am I missing something or was this supposed to be the plan anyway? - I'd assumed, based on company comments, that the geo's would already be well into this? - They can hardly declare a DtM without this?! If they've not started this, which I imagine will be quite time consuming, it would appear we are still a long way off entering meaningful sale negations.
Obviously the current contract could become moot if AA are keen enough.
WRT the 'beggin bowl' comment, hearing it second time around Bird could have just been highlighting it as fact and not as a heads up for an impending cash call. The SP is anyway so deflated it would be horrendous, we'd be back @2p
I haven't relistened, but my question for that is whether a detailed design of an open or underground pit is anything other than including the relevant costs of a likely design in order to demonstrate the economics of mining the resource. I would imagine a buyer would design their own mining operation from the ground up (or more correctly down) having appraised the notional outline open pit and costs? So the level of detail of what XTR would present on the design of a pit would be far from detailed?
I'd say there's has to be a fair level of detail to highlight the process/costs involved. Critical to determining an NPV, no? As I recall Bird stated AA no longer have geo's/Engineers skilled in such areas as they now just buy out small miners. The whole point of them selling the project and have someone else to the graft.
If I were buying I want to see all the data laid out 'on a plate' for both parties it would make for a faster sale process.
Highlighting Bird's comments WRT a lack of skilled recourse kept in house, it does make one wonder if the current contract would be scrapped and a deal made whereby AA expect the geo's would continue to work. You would Imagine, should AA buy BR, they would undertake a large drilling programme to fully understand what is in ground at BR. Who better to do that than the Chaps who've been involved over the past few years...
Good point G600. Also, a reason for Colin not declaring that negotiations are in progress, may be that he wants to avoid short term speculators trading the shares should this news be released, and potentially make a lot of money in a short period of time. Maybe he has the interests of us LTHs at heart, and would prefer to reveal a finalised deal in its entirely. That way LTHs only benefit.
We do already have a conceptual model it just needs to be updated with the latest JORC by the independent consultants, Optimal Mining Solutions ( if they use same consultants as before)
ZM to work out the economics, they need to know the strip ratio which is just one but an important factor. So once this is determined a pit design is relatively simple as slope angle will be known. Remember this is only a concept. The actual mine planning and engineering stage will only be finalised once there is a proven mineral reserve.
I too, listened again to the podcast regarding the begging bowl comment. Could have simply been Colin just bigging up the fact ‘proudly’ that they haven’t, in front of other CEO’s
I was musing yesterday evening (a nice bottle, like minded company - ie frustrated shareholders - and a log fire to avoid the horrors of 'Children in Need') about Wall Street (the film, Gordon Gekko etc) and thinking how we need people on the ground checking out who is turning up to who's office, arranging resteraunt tables next to bevvied up execs from participating players in our intriguing situation so we can pick up on the gossip, boasts, etc. Then realised all the fun stuff is probably done on Zoom now, not in person.
Re Gixxers last post, we also discussed (e.g.) AA buying ProspectOre along with the core of the exploration team. I imagine they are largely Aussie, and not necessarily wanting to up sticks and go to Mozambique or wherever to follow the next Colin project. Makes sense to stay with the Bushranger project, unless their share options turn out so well they choose a life of barbies on the beach instead.