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Just had a Tumbelweed bump into me and it woke me up.
Yes, seems like an interminable wait for reports into BR financial viability and any new direction the company will be taking now that it seems to be cash positive.
Yes worth remembering that we have a cash generating business that could be making £4-£5million netto per annum with the POSSIBILITY of a sale of Bushranger and a couple of very interesting exploration options.
Events in Panama with First Quantum show the importance of jurisdiction- BR being in Australia raises its value as much as any ore sorting and this will come to the fore more and more with increasing geopolitical instability .
A good hold or buy at a £10 market cap.
Totally agree with the fundementals cyberiachas, pity it's not translated into a relevant SP.
If only CB was as ebullient with the facts as he is with daydreams.
''A good hold or buy at a £10 market cap.''
That typo made me laugh out loud.
More seriously, CB needs to start specifically and focusedly publicising Manica now.
(If he doesn't do that into early 2024. I'll start posting hard for him to bring in a CEO here asap and will also look to meaningfully downsize the max bet in play I allow myself here too)
I think it will all end up OK with BR but it will not be anywhere near as good as CB stated and will take a lot longer than implied for the sale to be finalised. POC will no doubt need to be a lot higher , which I'm sure it will be in the next 1 or 2 years
Question is will CB still be around by then ? He's 80 on Saturday !
Some may well say if he's not the CEO then the sp will get a boost :)
I've long said we need a CEO, and what would happen to the company if CB carked it unexpectedly ?
In answer to your question, I refer you to the last line in Andrew's post below Jezzoo :-)
Https://www.usdebtclock.org/current-rates.html
I love this site for the US debt. Here it is forecasting for 2027. To believe that we can keep this spend , spend , spend going indefintely is folly. Net zero is just another socialist excuse/wish list to spend money. There won't be the money to pay for it. Equally , as Panama has shown, there is no appertite to have a large, dirty mine in your backgarden. I have no idea how it will play out but gold still looks a good bet to me.
One thing that's always confused me is who do we owe it to ?
The IMF ? Where do they get it from ? Ultimately the money is irrelevant, it's a human construct and as such isn't a tangible thing therefore you can change the rules regarding it.
There will a hiatus eventually, (Western) Govt debt worldwide will be written off by general consensus and we'll have a reset.
Why not ?
Jezoo, we owe the money to the people/institutions/funds that buy the government bonds (gilts) we issue every month or so. The IMF gets its month from the member states who contribute according to their relative GDP size. I presume if it needs more money they call on the member states to contribute more on a proportionate basis.
I agree the concept of debt when it gets so large starts to become rather strange. But one thing is for sure IMHO, if countries collectively decided for a reset then that is the last pages of book of revelations. We may come out of all that after a couple of decades with clean balance sheets but probably living in caves again.
in the case of the us and it's debt, the new house speaker (johnson - who does not believe in evolution and that ****sexuality caused the fall of the roman empire) had an interesting first bill to tackle the national debt. the bill wants to reduce the national debt by rescinding binden's previous bill to increase spending on the irs which is designed to investigate tax dodges by the wealthy . as each dollar spent in this way is estimated to return $7, cutting this additional spending will actually increase the national debt. but then, cutting the national debt is not really the goal, triggering the libs is!
Do agree Andrew, BR will be ok.
Here’s my take on one reason why the study could be taking so long. I’m sure they could or are looking into alternative ‘sensor based’ ore sorting tech to see if the higher grade will be amenable for pre concentration too, to warrant utilising a smaller grinding mill that will ultimately determine the size of any processing plant that will have a huge positive impact on the NPV model from reduced capital outlay and future Op costs. ‘Without’ that further ore sorting option for the higher grade early payback phase, a smaller mill will create a bottleneck in the flowsheet design and actually extend the payback period.
So I think, until an alternative in the short term can be found and is factored in, I personally don’t think they will release the updated study until then, if they want to show optimum economic performance. If they do release it with the TOMRA results in its current state ….(CB had implied they would get something ready for the market) ... although it will have brought the abundant low grades into play, it might just spook the market further if the economics ‘overall’ are too far from being as desirable as could be if they believe there is different tech available at present.
I have no doubts there are sensor arrays out there suitable for BR’s higher grades, if not yet, then the technology will catch up as it is constantly leap frogging previous outcomes due to the rapidly developing technology.
An example is Caravel who have left out their impressive ore sorting results in their recent PFS that ‘were’ in their 2018 scoping study, to wait for the very latest technology advancements to then include it into their flowsheet design in their DFS.
BR is nowhere near advanced as that, but just needs to show a concept that works for another company to take it further. The TOMRA results may fit that bill and be sufficient to offload when the crunch comes in a year or two without spending too much more money on it.
The problem is "in a year or two" from now wasn't what I was sold by CB, in reality it would have been done and dusted a year ago by his guidance .
Three years more at least of having a big lump of money tied up (lost on paper) here could be a serious blow to my retirement plans.
Why isn't he promoting what a great financial position this company is in going forward with our earnings ?
I've had people like CB in my life before, I don't trust him at all but I just have to put up with it until he decides he wants or needs another spike to keep the gravy flowing.
We need a CEO more than ever here or we will be under a penny in a short period from now.
Not for one minute do I honestly believe that this would have been sold last year.
With the so called ‘difficulty’ that he stated recently that they are facing in proving the decision to mine. The company will be now looking to negotiate ‘out’ of the agreement.
This would have been very likely always known to be the case since inheriting the buy back agreement on acquisition of BR.
So why did the company not approach AA straight after the updated Resource for RC and MRE for Ascot were released? As in theory, they could have just struck a sell on deal with AA when the 2mt option was not reached if he really wanted to tie a bow round it and sell it.
Far too much significance has been placed on the agreement and its terms. Although, as far as we know it’s legally binding, it has been used at the centre of BR marketing strategy. But in reality, with a budget assigned to explore and build on the resource toward upgrading the JORC along with a complementing economic study are generally set in stone and the same for any project even if 2mt was reached.
They were always going to make the project as desirable as possible within that budget plus maybe a contingency to act on any further recommendations they feel will add further value that the latest study will throw up.
We would highly likely ‘still’ be here and now if 2mt was JORC’d in this current economic climate.
As far as I'm concerned Colin came across in a very positive way that we would have 2mt. Am sure he knew AA would not be interested in 1.3mt. To me he has been very disappointing. If we had 2mt then l dont think the price of copper to a degree would matter much as we have something to sell. Maybe a few years before we do sell but will wait as to much under water.
The 2mt, regardless of what CB had said is not relevant without a study to support a viable mining concept, leaving it as a moot point. No mining company is going to buy bulk tonnage low graded porphyry deposit, which have unpredictable mineralisation trends, without one. How could any value be determined for it without an NPV model wether that’s for 1.3mt or 2mt.
CB has repeated a couple of times at least I can recall that the 2mt and DtM are concurrent and are one of the same.
It became clear then, that AA would not have been approached anyway without a viability study to at least support the DtM
Hypothetically it could have triggered the AA option but they are under no obligation to buy back into it and highly unlikely they would anyway regardless of total CuEq , still leaving us where we are now.
Okydoky. Just my thoughts. Frustrated that's all
Hi mrgez I don’t want to be seen as completely missing your point. I really do get it, CB managed to drag a lot of investors in with his over enthusiasm and unrealistic timescales. I can’t comment on pre BR investors, but I doubt there are many of the early BR investors that would have bothered if they had known how long it would realistically take. Let alone investing in the sector in general leading into a global recession.
Hate the term “it is what it is” or “hindsight is a wonderful thing,” but xtr are ‘still’ in a good place in comparison to many of its peers.
"but xtr are ‘still’ in a good place in comparison to many of its peers."
I agree with that.
But Xtr shareholders are not in a good place if they believed Cb's BS and bought in at 3p, 4p, or 5p, and are now stuck with averages at multiples of the current sp.
And most, if not nearly all, will be in that situation
And there is still a decent chance in 1 or 2 years time that many will get all their money back.
Wow! What an investment that would have been over a 5 year period :)
TBH all I'm really interested in is the SP.
If investors truly believed XTR was in a good place the SP would be three times what it is now.
I've stated my reasons many times before, no need to trawl through it again.
Well,
I was reviewing my losses here, debating whether to sell, or hold on for the existing projects......
I also finally caught up with AFP, and the recent RNS re the JV with First Quantum in Zambia, along with the Roast's interview with Colin.
I did not realise the recently announced earn-in that XTR has with Cooperlemon was on licences just next door..... I thought it was on licences in the standard copper belt, not up towards the western foreland.
Interesting.....
Not my work, and from a GLR investor I believe
https://twitter.com/Helioschariot/status/1717224798084805041/photo/1