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LINTON.
end of JULY.... why not?..... you have the honor!!!!
I’ll happily share my victory with Trout1.
Mike - are we doing an end of July prediction? Much tougher one to call.
The go- pass fee was also charged directly from the airlines since 2019
https://en.zoom-eco.net/breaking-news/drc-government-incorporates-idef-into-the-cost-of-airfare/
Wsg will get paid directly by the airlines. No DRC gov involvement.
The contract is based on Westminster's managed services model successfully deployed elsewhere in Africa. Revenues will be driven by embarking passenger numbers using the airports and funded by a per passenger fee, denominated in US$, collected through the ticketing system and payable directly to Westminster by the airlines or a suitable collection agency such as the International Air Transport Association ('IATA'). Based on current international embarking passenger levels, the contract is expected to generate revenues of circa US$10m in the first 12 months of operation. In addition, there is an opportunity under the contract for further revenues, in due course, from domestic traffic and cargo screening operations.
DRC is the size of Europe, A huge country. M23 rebels number a 1000 and are largely active in the east of the country. They have been active for over a decade . It’s a 47 hour road trip by vehicle to Kinshasa the capital and main airport which is in the far west from eastern towns. Internal flights are essential to get around such a huge area.
Goma which is one of the five airports is in the east.
This is the area wsg look to operate in, take on contracts no one else wants in AFRICA.
£8mil annual income which is the starting line. Potential to double or treble with DRC airline freight and domestic flights.
Driving distance from Kinshasa to Goma is 2679 kilometers (1665 miles). Lets hope they are not planning to fly! :)
I'm not sure AIMing. This isn't just Africa this is DRC, incredibly difficult place to do business. This is why, imo, there was no competition for this contract. This is why again imo the market is largely muted.
M23 could be become a real problem and i also think this has a baring on the market uptake.
The of course you have trust and history. Those two things alone Peter hasn't got.
https://www.voanews.com/a/m23-continues-to-gain-ground-in-volatile-east-dr-congo-/7678541.html
Just one story of a fair few in these past months.
Misty: M23….we’re dealing with Africa, this is why the margins are so high. I think the government should be able to hold off any more potential coups. Fundamentally, once we’re in and established then it shouldn’t really matter whom the government is. Why would they want to take over and then disrupt the international air travel that will be ever more important to their economy?
As a rather cold aside, DRC is a huge country and our contract really just needs Kinshasa to be operating well to be profitable. So skirmishes in the other areas of the DRC are much less important to us (from a purely financial perspective)
Not sure I care about no immediate dilution. They’re going to create another 33m shares in 12 months, so as far as I’m concerned we’ve had dilution . If we’re still below 3p then we’re on real trouble.
That said, we’re looking at c.8m in revenues by July 25, which is great. We should also be heading to c.50 margins from year 2 and 3 so serious profit.
This is exactly the sort of project that UK Finance should be funding. I’m hoping with DRC in the bag and operating that the next MSC will be easier to fund
Seriously, not been following so don't know what you mean.
Company certainly looks strange - dormant with a kiddie in charge - a Fowler relative? [£ from previous proceeds / salaries]
But why only 1m warrants at 10p. Its too "well negotiated". - I mean thats bugger all. Industry norm would be at least 20m warrants at 3 to 5p and that would be good to get away with in this "lower quatile" lending sector.
Anyway, just musings
This is a solid finance package. The lender has option to convert the loan to shares in 12 months time so you have no immediate dilution and no overhang. This will support the price as news is released gradually over the year. We have a plethora of good news and growth to look forward to. WSG has not placed since the previous raise some years ago at c. 5.7p. The funds will be deployed for growth and cash generative projects, not to keep the lights on. The likes of misty and others have been calling a massive discounted placing for years which has never come and now they're disappointed with this outcome. The board should be commended for pulling this off.
My point exactly yet everyone here wants to brush over this. The due diligence the lenders would have gone through and WSG are left with this! Red flag I’m afraid and the market agrees.
Any thoughts on M23? Anyone at all
So I’ll continue to trade this as I see fit.
Not an investment in my eyes
Would be lovely if they could follow up with another director purchase tomorrow (don’t worry, I’m not holding my breath).
By my maths, day 90 is the 10th, so I’d expect revenues to start late next week. I’d wager we’ll get some form of RNS confirming that. I’m (maybe naively) hoping that that will be something a SP catalyst.
The contract is based on Westminster's managed services model successfully deployed elsewhere in Africa. Revenues will be driven by embarking passenger numbers using the airports and funded by a per passenger fee, denominated in US$, collected through the ticketing system and payable directly to Westminster by the airlines or a suitable collection agency such as the International Air Transport Association ('IATA'). Based on current international embarking passenger levels, the contract is expected to generate revenues of circa US$10m in the first 12 months of operation. In addition, there is an opportunity under the contract for further revenues, in due course, from domestic traffic and cargo screening operations.
The contract includes a 90-day transition period to allow for operational planning and recruitment processes to be completed. Operations and revenues are therefore expected to formally commence in July 2024, although Westminster will immediately deploy its transition team to commence planning, recruitment, training, procurement and logistics.
What aiming high said !
Good post, well “fair”
Imo DRC contract not even starting to be priced in yet. The markets not grasped it yet. £8mil a year income and the potential to grow via freight and internal flights is like VAR, clear and obvious. The rise will come.
Misty hey,
Let's be fair mate you always had "concerns " here even when the price was circa 1p not that long ago.....folks sit or cashed on good profit whilst you keep talking about these "concerns ".....risk factor is there in any investment it's up to any individual to choose if it's worthwhile for him, or not......
Not good for you obviously and fair enough but surely the market is warming up to the latest developments here, hence the recovery in the share price 😉
ATB.
Misty, It looks like a company set up four years ago and has gone through two name changes since then, the last being late last month, coincidence!
The last accounts (for a dormant company) were posted in August last year and it is owned my a 26 year old person.
Maybe the lack of SP upward movement is that the market feels WSG have scrapped the barrel getting this CLN.
Again thats fair AIM. I would have thought a conventional loan was possible though and at a lower interest rate, they are after all way down from the peak.
Lender hardly a house hold name (and I work in this industry)
Any thoughts on M23? Or no concern at all?
Misty: debt is expensive these days. High yield companies (with proven profitability and PE backers) are paying over 10%.
I’d have much rather paid 15% or even 20% for a non-convertible loan. But that’s because I have such confidence in the share price over the next year.
Shame the BoD can’t stick £50k a head of their pensions in this thing. I totally get why, and they can always give themselves huge options to get shares. But it would be nice to show real conviction that the share price is laughably low.
I’m hopeful we can get some form of update next week when the contract starts properly. But the financing would imply that all is going to plan.
My backstop thinking is that every day that goes by will just lead to more cash in the bank from next week. Don’t really see how we can’t be profitable this year now.
Doesn't seem to much talk of this here. Anyone concerned? More "just bad luck" for WSG I wonder.
Could well be the main reason why theres such a lack of interest here. Thoughts anyone