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Good evening mick, by pure coincidence this came up on the Solo BB this evening; it answers a question you raised yesterday https://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/98938/bg_group_tanzanias_1st_deepwater_drilling_to_start_shortly. mick I also have the Investec Oil and Gas analysis that includes analysis on both AEX and WRL. Neither are fantastic but WRL probably wins on points. Most notable issues for AEX are lack of cash and inadequate funding for NT3 drill; they speculate that AEX will need to farm out Ntorya to fund NT3.... Oh and uncertainties about KN1. Nothing that isn't already public knowledge but good to see it succinctly assessed. Do you have an email address? I will send you the pdf.
apologies should hav been this http://www.ogj.com/articles/2016/11/drilling-program-commences-offshore-tanzania.html
and this: quite a bit here.... Statoil particularly news to me.
sorry; here https://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/tag/tanzania/
Thanks Crusty (just noticed your posts here), I must admit that I haven�t followed the O&G news from Tanzania very closely in recent months ( just so little movement, and at the same time I�m very much focussed on some other opportunities), so I am not sure what exactly is happening offshore. My understanding is that the LNG plant in Tanzania is still many years away, see for example the article below from Oct 2017. Quote: �Whatever happens, most observers believe a final investment decision would be five years away at best. By then, the IOCs may well have turned their attention elsewhere�. If FID happens in 2022, then production may start perhaps in 2030... way too far away for any small O&G company; offshore Tanzania is purely IOC territory in my view. I hope for you that AEX can sell Nyuni for a decent price, but I certainly wouldn�t place a bet on that.... The articles you copied are older (2016), so I�m not sure how relevant they still are. What I do know is that LNG in neighbooring Mozambique seems to go ahead, and given the growing LNG supply woldwide, this may make it even harder for Tanzania to justify another LNG plant. Regarding WRL vs AEX: In my view, WRL is an extremely safe bet. In WRL�s �best case� scenario (Tembo farm out is a success, the company drills 3 successful wells in the next 12-15 months and production reaches 130 MMscf/d in 2019), I expect the share price to rocket at a given point (say up to 1 pound/share) and the company being taken over. Even in a �worst case� scenario (WRL goes it alone in Mozambique and drills a dry hole, production reaches only 100 MMscf/d in 2019) I feel that WRL is still undervalued, and should move to 40-50p at some point in the next two years. AEX on the other hand is already valued twice as much as WRL, and in my view, pretty expensive. In a best case scenario the value will undoubtedly go up further, but the risk is much greater. If KN-1 can�t be revived (wich I expect unfortunately) and the volumes in Ntorya ramain stranded the next few years, or worse even, if AEX loses it�s licences in Ruvuma (which I don�t expect), then the company is at great risk in my view.... It�s all about risk indeed, and I personally prefer the safer option. But I certainly hope it will come good for everybody. Good luck!