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Started: joseywales, 10 May 2024 16:43
Last post: hellyeah, 21 May 2024 19:56
This is a much stronger business based on the update today. Net cash with a clear focus on delivering value rather than mindless growth. Their instagram ad has nearly a million likes, clearly customers value the brand. Managed to top up at 51.70p, still hugely undervalued. Expect a rerate!
So they clearly discount to clear and they have not had to go to the extremes they reserved for. However, in terms of that impacting client behaviour down the line, I doubt it. They may well be sensitive to this and use trade deals to dump inventory ... that would be the smarter play along with spend based discounting such as spend £1000+ get 30% off.
Seeing inventory dumping across different sectors now and best thing is to offer consumers access to what's being offered (and not taken) by trade.
To move stock I presume they are heavily discounting the wines, what does this mean for customers long term? will they be accustomed to hugely discounted wines? That could be an issue
That all seemed pretty positive .... particularly the £20m cash which was clearly down to inventory reductions. The £1.5m coming back on previously provisioned stock was also an indication that the stock provisioning in it's entirety is 'sandbagged'. Did not think you'd be able to get more at this level this morning ... I was of the opinion the cash element was key over operating loss which is all impairment/provision driven. Intangibles are a joke ... hate the things!
We were promised an update before the formal results in July. Have been happy adding at this 50/51p 'trap' it has been in on no volume, since that holding increase. If they report that cash position in that £17m range (ahead of expectation).... what sort of bottom line are they likely to report for the financial year. Does it remain a bit fugly or will there be upside there too?
Started: stargate, 21 May 2024 13:14
Last post: stargate, 21 May 2024 13:14
CCI(commodity channel index) positive divergence pivot , provides a measured sp target if 59.55, although equity volatility as measured by the average true range may vary the target sp. There is a weekly price pivot top at 59.5, which may orovide resistance. Volume today, on the current rally is high in comparison with previous volume. DYOR.
Started: stargate, 12 Feb 2024 11:54
Last post: stargate, 20 Mar 2024 12:43
The 2/2/24, trough low was breached on 23/2/24, which negated the notion of an intact uptrend. So, I would consider the reverse head and shoulders target unlikely to be met. Also had a look at the fundamentals page, which was not encouraging, so I am removing WINE, from my watchlist. DYOR.
Secular uptrend from left to right on 3 month chart view. Reverse head and shoulder price formation break upward, above shoulder line of the formation, so sp target is 93. Retail sector, is still technically in a downtrend until the sector can close above 2422. Volume on chart supports the overall bullish view of WINE. There is overhead volume from previous trading in the area of the price target of 93, which would likely impede progress beyond 93.
Running away
Started: SteamS, 9 Feb 2024 08:54
Last post: Starsailor2020, 9 Feb 2024 11:27
I understand tipped in IC today too.
Nice recovery here from lows.
Started: bigpunt, 15 Dec 2023 19:09
Last post: Koolhead, 7 Jan 2024 09:38
If you go on the website, pretty much every wine is now part of a massive sale. The prices they're selling really are ridiculously low. Good for the consumer but looks like a desperate attempt to raise cash to me. Last time I saw wine going this cheap, the company went bust and the wine was never delivered (it was fine wine, so I lost over a grand).
I was rather hoping for this to be taken private but probably wishful thinking. Probably left money on the table but sold out on Friday.
Negotiating down with suppliers is one thing but since many are small businesses and likely insure credit, I consider that the next risk faced. They don’t have much in the tank if credit insurance limits are reduced.
Can anyone with some experience with this sector please explain what are the plausible courses of action for Naked reducing stock through negotiations. Presumably it is:
Cost per bottle goes up
Contract cancelled and termination fee paid
Loss of exclusivity
I just can't see how reducing purchase orders to reduce stock is positive. I would understand if it was just a case of cancelling contracts with unpopular winemakers
Started: hellyeah, 20 Dec 2023 15:53
Last post: TheRiflemans, 5 Jan 2024 15:41
Or will it end the year with another hangover .......
The key this year was to survive and Naked Wine has done that effectively. I am backing this one to be multibagger next year. I topped up this morning in anticipation. GL all.
Started: JPMustang, 19 Dec 2023 09:27
Last post: JPMustang, 19 Dec 2023 21:05
Thank you for the correction! I score a zero on reading comprehension :(.
I read the beginning of the RNS which says 7.5p shares, but later it states the actual price.
I should get clear some money to put in Naked Wines. I have a very little position, but it looks like there's a lot of room to grow.
No it's definitely from their own pocket - neither the Chairman or NEDs have options. And the announcements include the purchase prices, which are at market
The director buys in the last couple of days felt like the directors were investing in the company, but I have the impression they were exercising options to buy shares at 7.5p, vs the 53p the share is at the moment.
Not a bad thing in itself as directors hold a few % of the shares, but not the same as paying shares from their own pocket at market price.
Started: cowsgomoo, 21 Nov 2023 13:05
Last post: Troajan, 15 Dec 2023 14:47
Do they have a strong presence in Germany?
Investmentaktiengesellschaft für langfristige Investoren TGV have increased their holding from 6.07% to 9.69% these past few weeks.
Lots of automatic trades today for blocks of 7,500 units
Certainly looks as though something’s afoot
Started: Oldapache, 8 Nov 2023 15:44
Last post: BeardedDragon, 21 Nov 2023 14:01
Oldapache, you appear to be somewhat of a clown. Any more brilliant tips?
Having been a majestic, naked wine, Angel previously, it comes as no surprise that the strategy for sales is now broken and superseded by all the supermarkets who deliver to door.
Hence the significant sp drop and imho has a lot lower to go to meet market expectations, therefore I will not be investing.
See you all at circa 5p.
Started: Likeitornot, 8 Nov 2023 17:01
Last post: noggers, 16 Nov 2023 16:38
Bought into this yesterday at 30p good rise today let's hope it continues.
Not surprised its bounced back a bit.
I did think it was looking oversold.
I hope the wine is not as green as understanding.
Being able to use customer subscriptions to purchase inventory is thankfully a redeeming feature of the Naked model and is presumably a key driver in managing margins.
Only a right VINO would do otherwise. ;-)
A salutary note: net cash £3 million - customer deposits £71 million. With such a large discrepancy you will need a drink!
Started: HorisM, 7 Nov 2023 14:38
Last post: HorisM, 8 Nov 2023 16:22
Pinning down the price with small auto sells.
And then make bundle buys.
Someone is accumulating on the backend.
Would have been great to have a name mention in there BeardedDragon.
However, the good thing about the article is that its a positive for the sector that Naked operate in.
Seems that we are at a good consolidation level now, and expect alot of averaging will be happening.
That six weeks old article about possible on-line wine growth does not even include Naked Wine amongst the top dozen such companies. Rather a poor show I thought, Horis old chap.
I suspect the new MD Rodrigo Maza coming onboard was a wake up to what divisions were underperforming, and this lead to Delvin having to leave.
As such, I would venture that we are at the bottom, considering the global Online Wine Sales Market is poised for growth:
https://www.openpr.com/news/3218497/online-wine-sales-market-in-depth-analysis-by-trends-overview
Looks like it has not. Grabbed some at 27.26 but who knows where this bottoms out. They're going to need a strong Xmas run that's for sure!
Started: HorisM, 7 Nov 2023 20:49
Last post: HorisM, 7 Nov 2023 20:49
Good news for Naked Wines current holding:
"Poor weather around the world is likely to cause global wine production to drop to a six-decade low this year."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67343009
Started: HorisM, 7 Nov 2023 10:50
Last post: beardozer, 7 Nov 2023 13:34
"Hard for management to go wrong from here you would think unless they keep flogging the same old horse." Quite.
I can understand buying mail order from a specialist who supplies the types of wines you won't find in a supermarket but what differentiates WINE from a supermarket? Only this morning I shopped at Sainsbury's who had 25% off 3 Bottles of Taste The Difference wines. I bought a Trentino Chardonnay, a Portuguese Alvarinho and an Alsatian Gewurztraminer.
The latter was £10.50 less 25% = £7.88 which was an absolute bargain - a price from 10 years ago!
"How much for all the wine, the client list, and the set up "Angel" Channel = £80m?" No chance - better to wait for them to go bust and buy it for peanuts. Maybe VINO would be interested? And bear in mind that the wines are not the sort that increase in value - they are very perishable!
How much for all the wine, the client list, and the set up "Angel" Channel
=£80m?
Hmmm, if they look to sell, they are going to be getting peanuts IMHO, as that signals despair.
That would have definitely been a wiser decision 2 years ago.
I know the wine category well, and unfortunately the cost inflation coupled with lower consumer demand signals a lose lose situation. They could go after their overheads (which they really will need to do) and you may have a more profitable, albeit smaller business model, but it won't happen overnight.
Its basically trading at 75% discount to net asset value now - with the net assets essentially being their wine inventories.
Time to be bold with their future plans, look at what their major operational and intangible assets are and pivot. Don't think sale of US business is an option - it doesn't seem to be an easy thing to carve off without also splitting off a chunk of wine makers which would limit what you could offer to UK or Aussie customers, plus US is too good a market to ignore when you've already set up infrastructure over there. Could there also be Naked Beers and Naked Spirits? New UK boss should be able to inject some new brave thinking to the mix.
Hard for management to go wrong from here you would think unless they keep flogging the same old horse.
Will they look to sell the business now? Would seem like a good time to sell the business to an investment firm with a 10 year glide.
Started: Likeitornot, 7 Nov 2023 07:41
Last post: joseywales, 7 Nov 2023 09:38
Was not expecting great news but that was surprisingly poor. Sold at the start of the day and bought back in at 30. It's still nigh on £300m annual sales in a business where the actual product margins are relatively stable. It's not for the faint hearted for sure but I thought the fact they remained in positive EBIT territory after such an horrific drop was one small plus!
Maybe they could split out and sell the US business?
I can't see losses being huge this or next year unless they are still committed to buying up wine production - but even this seems unlikely as they have been reducing their buying commitments for months now. In their favour, they do have strong purchasing power, so excess stocks should be sellable even if at a lower margin.
The loss this and next year will be huge. I doubt they will make it that long as the U.K. and USA plunge into a recession.
"worthless"
you for real!
Almost worthless. Just the type of product people are cutting down on. Good company with decent product. Just the wrong time. Money is going on mortgages, higher taxation, interest and debt. Not much left to buy much else.
Just bought some...
Should finish above 35p.
Started: HorisM, 3 Nov 2023 09:34
Last post: HorisM, 3 Nov 2023 11:47
Every investment thesis should be based on reality and market driving factors.
Speaking to a lot of people generally, and a few vendors in connection to Xmas markets, both are being apprehensive about going into these large public gatherings.
Plus when we add in the current cost of living, people will see buying wine online and having at home with friends/family as a cost effective solution.
As such, this will combine for a bumper period in sales for naked, and more importantly add new clients and grow out the consumer base for longer term platform stability.
The new MD appointment is a positive step for sure - although James Crawford was already Group CFO. Hopefully new MD can shake things up, has an interest in putting customers first, and can put some soul back into the brand.
BTW it would be a pretty sad indictment on WINE's strategy if they were relying on the fact that people were too frightened to shop in Xmas markets to get their revenues up, but if that's your investment thesis then OK.
Looking at the guys pedigree and experience he will be very well connected and have a lot of knowledge to take naked wines to the next level.
I imagine that most of his pay will be bonus linked, so expect a very aggressive move over the coming months to drive revenue and share price in turn.
now with Xmas sales here, and a lot of people expected to avoid Xmas markets due to the troubles in MEA, there will be a lot of wine for home buying happening.
Would expect this to easily move up to the 70's once some good buys lands and people realise how cheap this share is now.
Saw that yesterday and bought back in here. Covenant risk is likely keeping this down but he does not seem the sort of pedigree that would join a company that's doomed to miss covenants. Imagine they will be close to the bone but maybe the threat of any significant capital event has diminished a little.
Naked Wines has appointed Rodrigo Maza as managing director of its UK business.
Rodrigo Maza, formerly of Grupo Modelo and AB InBev, will succeed former Naked UK managing director, James Crawford, who becomes chief financial officer role for the Naked Wines group.
Maza has previously launched digital, consumer-facing ventures in seven Latin American countries, before becoming managing director of AB InBev’s PerfectDraft operation in Europe.
With almost 20 years of experience in the drinks industry, Maza brings with him “a strong skill set and an excellent reputation for delivering world-class shopping experiences and profitable growth”, according to a Naked Wine spokesperson.
Nick Devlin, Naked’s global CEO, said: “Maza’s extensive strategic experience, relentless customer focus and track record of driving innovation in the beverage space make him a natural leader for our key UK business. I’m delighted to welcome Maza to Naked and excited about supporting him as we pursue our mission to get more UK consumers drinking independent.”
https://harpers.co.uk/news/fullstory.php/aid/32027/Naked_Wines_UK_appoints_new_MD.html
Last post: Troajan, 31 Oct 2023 18:08
Started: Hughesleisure, 25 Oct 2023 20:52
Last post: Likeitornot, 26 Oct 2023 06:56
Agreed. Competing with the supermarkets or even other online clubs on price/quality is a killer. Which is why I think they should be selling a different product - by which I mean really focussing on the personal connection between the drinker and the winemaker and selling at a different emotional level to a customer that wants or feels they get something from that connection.
Almost every day for the last year and beyond this company SP has gone down which I why I have now cancelled my Angels Membership and asked for my money back. It is a shame, because in principle the idea was sound trying to give new and smaller vineyards a chance. What is killing this company in my opinion are supermarkets selling equivalent quality wines at cheaper prices. The only chance for this company now is to be taken over and have its visions integrated into a more solvent entity.
Started: HorisM, 24 Oct 2023 09:22
Last post: Likeitornot, 25 Oct 2023 16:52
Covenants still might come into play now, as well as latest attrition rate of Angels. Awaiting news...
IMO management need to come forward with more details on their revised plan. They have used the phases like 'leaner, tougher competitor', and '[to be ] sustainably profitable ....may require us to be a smaller business' - so it will be interesting to learn what this means in practice.
But no point investing unless they are going to improve their model otherwise it's same rubbish in, same rubbish out.
Price seems to have settled, and appears that all reasonable bad news is out.
now in the Xmas and new year season, so would expect high levels of wine purchasing, considering people will be staying home this year and avoiding xmas markets due to the threat of attacks.
Started: Likeitornot, 19 Oct 2023 18:19
Last post: Likeitornot, 19 Oct 2023 18:19
Wrong. Most companies (ignoring insurers) aim to reward and grow the engagement of existing customers - rather than systematically turn them off. For WINES, its the opposite. Each year, the contribution from the new set of customers ALWAYS decreases in each of the subsequent years. There are only so many customers that are predisposed to buying wine online, so spending increasing amounts to get them onboard only to lose them later because your business model is carp seems a little careless.
Last post: Hughesleisure, 19 Oct 2023 16:30
Hello Camo, how are you doing? Hope you are not invested here. Looks like this company is fighting a losing battle. If the SP goes down further tomorrow then I am pulling my subscription to Naked Wine and reclaiming the money I have in there before it finally goes bust. A shame really because the concept was good.
Anyone alive here?
Started: Likeitornot, 11 Oct 2023 13:43
Last post: Likeitornot, 11 Oct 2023 13:43
The business model is not working and they know this. Too much risk taken on in terms of wine purchasing (their stated purpose has been 'giving winemakers hope'). Also, historically too much focus on using price as the main lever to get new customers and treating the customer lifetime value cycle like some sort of machine where you feed it at the top, watch the wheels go around and out pops some money.
I think they are trying to move in the right direction with their strap line "Connecting everyday wine drinkers with the world’s best independent winemakers". This needs to be front and central to their proposition, engaging drinkers on a deeper level than before - but without being totally invested (or caught up) in the growing cycle and working capital risks.
The US is a massive market if they can find the right formula that creates value for the customer and draws them in by feeding their passion for the wine, its origin, and all the other stuff that goes with this product.
Last post: Likeitornot, 5 Oct 2023 15:29
I bet Mr Devlin wishes he'd waited, could have saved himself £6k?
A few director deals this week...
Thoughts?
Well.... this thing has gone