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For those who say that nothing is going on here quite a bit has been completed or is in the pipeline. Please don’t think I’m bigging up the overpaid BOD (they have the charisma of a 3 week old British Rail sandwich) but stuff has been / is being done … Vantage Towers monetised.
Ghana gone.
Hungary gone.
Voda Egypt transferred to Vodacom.
Spain sold subject to contract.
Italy poss sold subject to contract.
Voda combo with Three agreed subject to review by regulators.
Headcount reduction of 11000 of which one third done. (ADVFN)
I for one hope that a reduction in debt will prevail from asset sales, this would make this company a better bet for a takeover.
The Net Debt figure will drop simply as a result of holding more cash on the balance sheet
This is where things currently stands according to Vodafone's Bonds outstanding (EU and US) page:
https://investors.vodafone.com/debt-investors/bonds-outstanding-eu-and-us
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRA1ndHTf_Bz7O_moDxmcbWnEtcusZucUu6lEJvm3O4mGooeH4ErFjRqot3RQHBaVXCgoUED1k2CUVK/pubchart?oid=17624073&format=interactive
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRA1ndHTf_Bz7O_moDxmcbWnEtcusZucUu6lEJvm3O4mGooeH4ErFjRqot3RQHBaVXCgoUED1k2CUVK/pubchart?oid=1681133451&format=interactive
Can anyone explain why Vodafone would reject takeover valuing Italy at over 11b, merger valuing company at 10.45b only to accept takeover valuing company at 8billion. How does the BOD explain this to shareholders - its the worst possible outcome.
So looking into something similar today,
Italy & Spain for a combined enterprise value of £11.5b if you extrapolate by revenue that puts an MCAP of £23.1b or 85p. But Italy & Spain are effectively loss making, so if you use the EBITDAaL numbers to gross it up instead, then puts an MCAP of £34.4b or 127p. I wanted to add UK to it, as the merger has an implicit value to it, but we are the "purchaser" in that so not sure its good to include anyway.
I think the 11b was the value of the merged Italy business, not the implicit value we were getting for giving away a proportion of the business
Plus, the Illiad offer was a 50/50 split. Italy makes returns below the cost of capital, so effectively yes we get some money upfront, but every year we own % in the NewCo we are going to have to pump more loans into it, so effectively reducing the value of that offer year after year, Plus Illiad wanted to slowly take 100% ownership over multiple years, so basically putting it own a payment plan on todays value of money, so thus making the consideration less due to time value of money (plus the fact we would need to subsidise % of a loss making business in the meantime).
In conclusion Beo, would you say this deal is good, average or bad
In 2022 Iliad offered 100% of Vodafone Italy for value of 11b. This was rejected as not in best interest of shareholder.
Just over a month ago Iliad proposed a merger valuing Vodafone Italy at 10.5b. This was rejected again.
Vodafone now announces a sale valuing Vodafone Italy at 8b.
As far as BOD keeping busy selling assets, anyone can sell £1 coins for 90p - it doesn't make you effective or successful.
" In 2022 Iliad offered 100% of Vodafone Italy for value of 11b. This was rejected as not in best interest of shareholder. "
yes...but it was a preliminary indication of interest, full cash offer from Iliad and Private Equity ...." Iliad said its full cash offer had merits, including "a very high premium for Vodafone Italy".... non contractual at that early stage
..no judging the final price would have been 11.25b euro though ...as they could have been access to the books and downgraded their value ...... and ..who knows...maybe VOD thought that is what they intended ...and if they walked away..at least they had a good eye at the Italy accounts
https://www.barrons.com/news/vodafone-says-rejects-iliad-approach-for-italian-arm-01644505508
I agree Jes it seems absurd, surely no one is that stupid, there must be some rationale. sadly the market takes a dim view.
I suspect E& is behind the decision - Its a neutral disposal reducing debt and removing assets of no interest to E&. For other investors, it feels like BOD is not looking after our interests. I will look for exit.
They overplayed their hand turning down Illiad, got into talks over a combination which still left them with the headache of a JV and are now having to consider a sale below asset value to get cash. This is the hidden pressure of too much debt and an insane commitment to keep paying a div they can't afford.
I would argue that JV would have been simpler than a sale. VOD have over 5000 employees in Italy, proportion of which are in group functions (e.g. Vodafone Business). Same issue as with Spain - their carrier function is based in Spain for a start. Risk is that they spend the next decade unwinding these functions instead of focusing on core business.
" Can anyone explain why Vodafone would reject takeover valuing Italy at over 11b, merger valuing company at 10.45b only to accept takeover valuing company at 8billion."
You are not comparing like for like
Iliad is Enterprise value which included debt and cash , whilst Swisscom excludes debt and cash
plus..they have not accepted anything yet ....Swisscom main shareholder appears to be against the move
Thanks pokerchips, I missed that.
Well, also Swisscom proposal is for the entity value of the Italian business. However, I agree that it is not comparable with Iliad proposal.
Besides, nothing stops Xavier Niel from replicating Swisscom proposal and increase it from 8 B to 8.5 B. I also agree that the real risk is that the Swiss confederation stops the deal.
In my opinion Swisscom proposal is not bad: the multiple EV to EBITDAaL is 7.6.
Consider that the comparable figure for the entire Vodafone is 4 (Net debt 36.2B+18B market capitalisation=54B EV. Projected EBITDAaL is 13.3 B. 54B/13.3B=4).
The offer of £1.05 (if there is one) presents an the upside of close to 50% . Is anyone on this forum seriously rejecting that in hope of reaching £2 in the next decade?
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Tomorrow is another day.
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Join now or please keep quite.
Some massive volumes changing hands today.. more detailed info here https://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/quote/VOD
162,007,861 shares sold, 29,842,085 bought and 121,876,096 unknown
Hi unluckyInvestor9
Where did you get those trade volumes figures from?
I got the data off my ADVFN site.
You seem to have posted very odd figures. I'm afraid 🫣¡
I mean to say which website would be more closer to publishing the true trade volumes figures between this is money and ADVFN site. I would go with the ADVFN site trade volumes figures. Imho.
I think the volumes are similar, ADVFN shows 299,349,951 and the sum from this is money is 313,726,042
Gary59. No offence, but don't you think it is time give up with your constant having a go at the vod B.O.D. upper class twit thing. We all can gather by now that you could have done far better job as the vod C.E.O. but we are stuck with Marge instead, time to move on Gary. Please.
15,595,633 @69.40p at 13:28:28 gmt
15,595,633 @69.40p at 13:28:28 gmt
Both are off-book
The two trades above are shown on the Vodafone London Stock Exchange at 12:28:27 gmt whilst on the ADVFN website as 13:28:27 possibly due to ADVFN quoting the European time difference of +1hour from Gmt UK time.
25,144,026 @69.40p at 12:48:49
25,144,026 @69.40p at 12:48:47
Both are off-book
The two trades above are shown on the Vodafone London Stock Exchange at 11:48:27 gmt whilst on the ADVFN website as 12:48:27 possibly due to ADVFN quoting the European time difference of +1hour from Gmt UK time.
Check these trades guys.
On the ADVFN it showing up those trades as Sell transactions.
Disable or pause your ad blocker so that you can see the trades recap with 15 minutes delay.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/VOD/vodafone-group-plc/trade-recap
As you know guys we had a massive amount of trades showing up later on the day which were shown mostly as Sells.
However, what's really going on?
Could be some sub 0.50% shorts trying to close their hidden from the public shorts positions?