Listen to our latest Investing Matters Podcast episode 'Uncovering opportunities with investment trusts' with The AIC's Richard Stone here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
To sceptics,
Which Vod owned subsidiaries are listed and what is their current market cap based on Friday closing price(s).
How much of that is the value could attain if sold?
Apologies, meant to say how much of that market cap could be attained (in absolute €) by vod if they were to sell their complete stake.
PS @LSE, please introduce an edit feature. So annoying.
Didn’t you think that at 90p Avi
Then 85 then 80 then 75 then 70 lol
Hello rob. I doubt I will sell any at this very low price. I think the sp will recover, but who knows. I find it more annoying when I sell a share & the sp goes up, than if I hold or buy & the sp goes down. Maybe there is a little bit of Fleccy in me? I believe. (Miracle on Wall St).
Poker I can't deny Vodafone have made some dubious purchases, but they've done that going all the way back to the Mannesmann purchase in 2000. India hasn't gone well due to the Indian Government/Regulators, rather than Vodafone management. The German Liberty Global assets are a purchase I didn't understand, I believe Liberty sold those assets because they saw the regulatory changes on the horizon and the fact that industry is moving away from DOCSIS/HFC to FTTP; That said I don't have the visibility of the business that Vodafone has, so they may see something I don't.
Vodafone Group is run like a hedge fund holding Telecom assets, over the years they've shown themselves to be ruthless in the way they run their business, dispensing with assets as required. I've seen the way Vodafone works when it comes to deals, since I was working for CWW when Vodafone took us over, which in my opinion they bought at a ridiculously low price aided by the CWW BOD through a Scheme of Arrangement deal. Once they took over CWW, they quickly ended the Final Salary scheme and split some parts of the business into UK and other parts into Group to suit their plan.
It was back then I first invested in Vodafone and did well as a result of the Verizon Wireless deal, at which point I traded out jumping back in around 150p a long time afterward, of course I never imagined that the price would drop this low at the time. I'm quite confident I'll profit from my Vodafone investments at some point, I'll wait until then.
what do you make the nav to be. my ‘packet of *** packet ‘ number for vod is about £1.25. any of you more experienced vodafone pundits have a valuation? cheers
As at the end of March net assets were 63.4 Billion euro according to the London stock exchange site
Fleccy,
The biggest mistake Vod did was the acquisition of Mannesman at the peak of .com boom. The best deal they made was actually the sale of verizon at a price of $130bn? Today Verizon is trading at less than $160bn!
What the greedy and destructive Colao should have done was to pay off all debt first before handing out money to shareholders. Read, a disciple of Colao followed in his footsteps and now MDV is reversing their mistakes. She has for sure experience from both of these chaps and if she is savvy, she knows where the mistakes were made. This is why an outsider will have a much tougher job to appreciate the moving parts and the context.
Now, currently the Italian business has better margin than the uk unit, so I would prefer a tie-up like that with liberty global in Nl than a complete sale given the sheer size of the italian business and the future italian potential. Bear in mind Italy never managed to recover from the -08 crisis, but they will turn the bend soon enough. Its a powerhouse when it comes industrial production and a fantastic asset with a huge population. I would have not sold it off.
With the tie-up, net debt will be reduced, similar to the proposed 3 plans. The core pillars of vod in mainland europe are, germany, italy and nl. Orange dominates the eastern european side and france with DT maintaining the Dach region with some other adjacent regions.
Vod can't therefore afford to lose its strategic positioning. The world of deal making is a dirty one and agents will do all they can to force the hands of the weak ones. You think vod would get as a offer for its assets if sp is as suppressed levels or at 160+? So, yes, they will use all tools in their toolkit to achieve their goals. This is why slid shareholders are pivotal in maintaining an astute vision and leadership to fend off hyenas.
interesting times ahead.
Not expert but €63.4bn is c €2.35 per share and what the statutory authorities say is the net realisable value.
The enterprise value higher?
I imagine E& would pay €20bn for the brand including the partner markets model in Africa.
Mesh I've previously looked at the adjusted EBITDAal Margin and I agree Italy looks better than the UK, but Italy has seen a steeper decline on the Organic growth figures. Going just off the figures it's hard to know what Vodafone's turnaround plan is, but I believe them when they say things will improve. Hopefully they'll announce something on Italy soon, and the UK Three merger will get approved toward the end of next year. All the articles use debt to bash the Telecom companies, but Telecom companies have always maintained quite high debt levels by choice, so I'm not sure that's a valid concern. If the dividend does remain affordable and Vodafone don't cut while they're executing their turnaround plan, then it's winner winner Chicken dinner, otherwise I'm happy for Vodafone to drop the dividend if it pushes the share price up.
Hi Dan, I didn't think you would, but you sounded a bit wobbly when talking to Fleccy, I have to admit i have been tempted to sell, As Gary59 was saying we've had a bit of a bull run lately, my lgen/aviv/psn/mng have all been making good gains lately and even my Lloyds share are back in profit, it's a shame to see Vodafone dropping down to this level, but i'm not going to sell at these prices and take a big loss, there's a lot of extreme views on here lately from this is 100% safe and and going to return a big profit, to the other extreme that it's going Bankrupt
I'm sure your level headed enough to realise nobody knows, if we did we could get very rich, it could drop further or could start rising
Let's hope 2024 will be a better year for Vodafone
Best of luck mate
Fleccy
'UK Three merger will get approved toward the end of next year'
I think that timeline is the CMA who will shortly give guidance. I think end of 2024 for the remedies eg spectrum rebalancing etc.
As soon as the security decision is made in parliament, sometime next week or next month, VOD 3 will just start. They are ready to rock and roll now.
Funny how uk brexited the eu bureaucracy. EU has approved the merger and the UK is still stuck in it own bureaucracy for another year. Bailey still on the fence with interest rates Hunt soaking tax out of citizens with the personal tax allowance fixed whilst inflation and the cost of living is a raging wild fire
Italy's economy declined in Q2 and stagnated in Q3 and is probably the same or slightly worse in Q4 at present ....
Falling GDP tends to move more people towards low cost price models ...thankfully inflation is falling there too
No wonder then with the fierce price competitiveness that no Telecom there is making a positive ROCE
A GV and cost synergies seems about the only way forward if a direct sale doesnt get a high enough bid ( unlikely given risks of over paying )
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/italys-economy-stagnates-q3-inflation-slows-sharply-2023-10-31/
"Bailey still on the fence with interest rates Hunt soaking tax out of citizens with the personal tax allowance fixed whilst inflation and the cost of living is a raging wild fire"
Hunt is doing the right thing..the cost of borrowing is now too high and the debt needs to be controlled....so he has to pay for things with more taxes...or...they are back to cutting services etc
Tough period...but..if he is nicey nicey he faces a sterling crash, even higher inflation from more expensive imports etc and a debt crisis ..mmmmm nice ..(dont look at Argentina, it will frighten the children )
Politicians have simply ignored the trend of corporate domiciling in tax havens.
Meshtrader, I agree by far the biggest dissaster for vodafone was mannesman. I know because I have been a shareholder from before that. The problem now is the constant putting down of the current bod. Mannesman proved how difficult it is to make a good profit in mob telecoms, time to stop moaning about the bod & move on. It is massive challenge for the vod managment, way above the head of many on here.
'Hunt is doing the right thing'
Well he is doing something. Maybe its maths but a generation is paying for the arbitrage of higher inflation than interest rates. VOD net assets vs market value are a good example who is paying for it.
Personally I think £60k tax threshold offsets cost of living..
'Politicians have simply ignored the trend of corporate domiciling in tax havens.'
That is an exclusive club where wealth can be concentrated and allows the return on global investment returns to be greater than the rate of global economc growth. As your average uk citizen cant participate in that concentration, Hunt should raise the personal tax threshold to £60k to offset the offshoring of uk revenues
I bet Donald Trump uses a Delaware limited partnership
Totally agree - give the BODs a chance
Pokerchips, you have a point. I only wanted to show that at these prices a takeover and breakup of Vodafone is not unlikely. PersonalIy I would prefer Vodafone to remain independent and recover.